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Balance-of-payments-constrained growth in a multisectoral framework: A panel data investigation

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  • Raphael Rocha Gouvêa
  • Gilberto Tadeu Lima

Abstract

Purpose - The aim of this paper is to contribute to the literature on balance-of-payments-constrained growth by providing an innovative empirical evaluation of a disaggregated version of the so-called Thirlwall's Law derived from a Pasinettian multisectoral framework. Design/methodology/approach - After estimating sectoral elasticities of exports and imports for a considerable panel dataset of 90 countries over the period 1965-1999, the authors have performed two empirical exercises. First, they grouped countries together by income level and evaluated a multisectoral balance-of-payments-constrained growth model by analyzing prediction errors and mean absolute deviations. Second, the authors carried out a regression validity test on the results. Findings - The main findings give support to the validity of the multisectoral version of Thirlwall's Law, providing therefore further understanding of the structural determinants of the uneven international development and guidance for the design of growth-enhancing national structural policies. Originality/value - The main value added of this contribution to the existing literature lies in the use of disaggregated trade data in conjunction with modern panel data econometric techniques to obtain empirical estimates on the balance-of-payments constraints to long-run economic growth for an unprecedently large sample of countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Raphael Rocha Gouvêa & Gilberto Tadeu Lima, 2013. "Balance-of-payments-constrained growth in a multisectoral framework: A panel data investigation," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 40(2), pages 240-254, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:eme:jespps:v:40:y:2013:i:2:p:240-254
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    Cited by:

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    2. Valeriy V. Mironov & Liudmila D. Konovalova, 2019. "Structural changes and economic growth in the world economy and Russia," Russian Journal of Economics, ARPHA Platform, vol. 5(1), pages 1-26, April.
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    4. Marwil J. Dávila-Fernández, 2018. "Alternative Approaches to Technological Change when Growth is BoPC," Department of Economics University of Siena 795, Department of Economics, University of Siena.
    5. Dávila-Fernández, Marwil J. & Sordi, Serena, 2020. "Attitudes towards climate policies in a macrodynamic model of the economy," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    6. Ahmad Jafari Samimi & Ramezan Hosseinzadeh, 2011. "Foreign Trade and Economic Growth: Evidence of Thirlwall’s Law in Iran," Journal of Social and Development Sciences, AMH International, vol. 2(2), pages 81-88.
    7. Oreiro, José L. & da Silva, Kalinka M. & Dávila-Fernández, Marwil J., 2020. "A New Developmentalist model of structural change, economic growth and middle-income traps," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 26-38.
    8. Magacho, Guilherme Riccioppo, 2016. "Brazil: capital goods industry during the 2003-2008 boom and following the global crisis," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), August.
    9. Guilherme Riccioppo Magacho, 2017. "Structural change and economic growth: Advances and limitations of Kaldorian growth models," PSL Quarterly Review, Economia civile, vol. 70(280), pages 35-57.
    10. Anthony P. Thirlwall, 2011. "Balance of payments constrained growth models: history and overview," PSL Quarterly Review, Economia civile, vol. 64(259), pages 307-351.
    11. Dávila-Fernández, Marwil J. & Sordi, Serena, 2019. "Path dependence, distributive cycles and export capacity in a BoPC growth model," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 258-272.
    12. Antonio Soares Martins Neto, 2017. "Income distribution and external constraint: Brazil in the commodities boom [Income distribution and external constraint: Brazil in the commodities boom]," Nova Economia, Economics Department, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (Brazil), vol. 27(1), pages 7-34, January-A.
    13. Marwil J. Dávila-Fernández, 2020. "Alternative approaches to technological change in a small open economy," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 30(2), pages 279-317, April.
    14. Marwil J. Dávila-Fernández & Serena Sordi, 2019. "From open economies to attitudes towards change. Growth and institutions in Latin America and Asia," Department of Economics University of Siena 809, Department of Economics, University of Siena.
    15. Guilherme R. Magacho & John S. L. McCombie, 2020. "Structural change and cumulative causation: A Kaldorian approach," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 71(3), pages 633-660, July.
    16. Dávila-Fernández, Marwil J. & Sordi, Serena, 2020. "Structural change in a growing open economy: Attitudes and institutions in Latin America and Asia," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 358-385.
    17. A. P. Thirlwall, 2013. "Economic Growth in an Open Developing Economy," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 15208.
    18. Dávila-Fernández, Marwil J. & Oreiro, José L. & Dávila Dávila, Mario W., 2018. "Endogenizing non-price competitiveness in a BoPC growth model with capital accumulation," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 77-87.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Balance-of-payments constraint; Structural change; Multisectoral analysis; Economic growth; Economic development; Trade income elasticities;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies

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