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Exposure to external shocks and economic resilience of countries: evidence from global indicators

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  • Lino Pascal Briguglio

Abstract

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to revise, update and extend the economic vulnerability and economic resilience indices, where economic vulnerability is associated with inherent exposure to external shocks and economic resilience with policies that enable a country to minimize or withstand the negative effects of such shocks. This study also proposes a revised vulnerability/resilience framework to assess the risk of a country being harmed by external economic shocks. Design/methodology/approach - The methodology used in the study involves defining economic vulnerability in terms of inherent features of an economy and defining economic resilience in terms of policy-induced changes, and then devising measureable indices to measure such vulnerability and resilience across countries. The exercise required the examination of various global indices to assess their suitability, in terms of relevance and country coverage, for measuring the vulnerability index and the resilience index and the components of the two indices. Findings - The main finding of the study is that a number highly vulnerable states, including economically successful small island economies, emerged with high resilience scores, suggesting that they adopt policies that enable them to withstand the harmful effects of external shocks. This possibly explains why these states register relatively high GDP per capita, in spite of their high exposure to shocks. On the other hand, a number of countries, mostly large and poor developing countries, that are not highly exposed to external shocks due to their limited dependence on external trade, emerged with a low degree of policy-induced economic resilience. Research limitations/implications - The study utilized global indicators which sometimes had missing data and these had to be filled in using approximations based on assumptions, and alternative assumption could have produced a different approximations. In addition the classification of countries in terms of the vulnerability and resilience nexus depended highly on many underpinning assumptions, including the definitions and the measurement of the components, the weighting schemes and the thresholds used. It is likely that alternative assumptions would yield alternative classifications. Practical implications - An important practical implication of this study is that highly economically vulnerable states can reduce the harmful effects of external economic shocks if they adopt policies that lead to resilience building. On the other hand, countries that are not highly exposed to external shocks, can render themselves economically unstable due to their weak economic, social and environmental governance. Social implications - This study considers social development and cohesion as one of the pillars of resilience building. The implication of this approach is that social governance, leading to improvements in the education and health of the population could reduce the harm arising from a country’s exposure to external shocks. This is because social governance affects the extent to which relations within a society are properly developed, enabling an effective functioning of the economic apparatus without the hindrance of civil unrest. Originality/value - This study has extended previous work on the vulnerability and resilience framework, to include almost all countries of the world, using updated data, and has revised the resilience index to include environmental governance. It has also redefined market flexibility to allow for the downsides of excessive financial riskiness. The revision of vulnerability and resilience indices in the light of new data and their interaction showed more convincingly that economies that are highly economically vulnerable could still register economic success as a result of resilience-conducive policies associated with good economic, political, social and environmental governance.

Suggested Citation

  • Lino Pascal Briguglio, 2016. "Exposure to external shocks and economic resilience of countries: evidence from global indicators," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 43(6), pages 1057-1078, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:eme:jespps:jes-12-2014-0203
    DOI: 10.1108/JES-12-2014-0203
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Alina Georgiana PROFIROIU & Corina-Cristiana NASTACÄ‚, 2021. "What strengthens resilience in public administration institutions?," Eastern Journal of European Studies, Centre for European Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, vol. 12, pages 100-125, August.
    2. Brunhart, Andreas, 2022. "Country Size and Exposure to International Economic Shocks: New Evidence from the Financial Crisis," EconStor Preprints 263310, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    3. Mangirdas MORKUNAS & Artiom VOLKOV & Yuri BILAN & Agota Giedre RAIŠIENE, 2018. "The Role Of Government In Forming Agricultural Policy: Economic Resilience Measuring Index Exploited," REVISTA ADMINISTRATIE SI MANAGEMENT PUBLIC, Faculty of Administration and Public Management, Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest, Romania, vol. 2018(31), pages 111-131, December.
    4. Volkov, Artiom & Morkunas, Mangirdas & Balezentis, Tomas & Streimikiene, Dalia, 2022. "Are agricultural sustainability and resilience complementary notions? Evidence from the North European agriculture," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    5. Balaei, Behrooz & Noy, Ilan & Wilkinson, Suzanne & Potangaroa, Regan, 2021. "Economic factors affecting water supply resilience to disasters," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    6. Gnangnon, Sèna Kimm, 2018. "Effect of multilateral trade liberalization on foreign direct investment outflows amid structural economic vulnerability in developing countries," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 15-29.
    7. Dobronogov,Anton & Knack,Stephen & Wilson,James Michael, 2020. "Moving Up the Ladder : An Analysis of IDA Graduation Policy," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9208, The World Bank.
    8. Chima Igwe-Kalu & Barnabas Olusegun Obasaju, 2020. "Output Volatility in Nigeria: Does Financial Development Absorb Trade-Led Shocks?," International Journal of Finance, Insurance and Risk Management, International Journal of Finance, Insurance and Risk Management, vol. 10(2), pages 66-78.
    9. Alexandru Meleca & Radu Radulescu, 2020. "Regional Economic Resilience in the Economy of the European Union," ConScienS Conference Proceedings 018ma, Research Association for Interdisciplinary Studies.
    10. Velloso, Helvia & Bustillo, Inés & Dookeran, Winston & Perrotti, Daniel E., 2018. "Resilience and capital flows in the Caribbean," Oficina de la CEPAL en Washington (Estudios e Investigaciones) 43420, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    11. Elena-Mădălina ZAMFIR (AVRAM) & Georgiana BALABAN & Cosmin MARINESCU, 2022. "Economic resilience in Central and Eastern European countries," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(1(630), S), pages 5-26, Spring.
    12. Harvey W. Armstrong & Robert Read, 2020. "Size And Sectoral Specialisation: The Asymmetric Cross‐Country Impacts Of The 2008 Crisis And Its Aftermath," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(6), pages 891-921, August.
    13. Ibrahim Ngouhouo & Tii Njivukuh Nchofoung, 2022. "Economic Resilience in Sub-Saharan Africa: Evidence from Composite Indicators," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 13(1), pages 70-91, March.

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