شاخص های آسیب پذیری اقتصادی[Indicators of Economic Vulnerability]

Economic vulnerability refers to the inherent characteristics of an economy that expose countries to adverse shocks. The greater the capacity to respond effectively to such shocks, the lower the degree of vulnerability. A country’s vulnerability reflects its susceptibility to harm from the economic shocks to which it is exposed. For instance, countries such as Singapore, despite their inherent vulnerabilities, have managed to sustain stable growth by adopting sound economic policies. Economic vulnerability essentially denotes exposure to shocks; in other words, it represents the risk of incurring losses as a result of shocks. In microeconomics, the focus is on the impact of shocks on household welfare, while in macroeconomics the emphasis lies on their effect on economic growth. This chapter first defines the different types of vulnerability, namely structural vulnerability and macroeconomic vulnerability. The second section introduces the Briguglio Vulnerability Index, which incorporates variables such as economic openness, export concentration, and dependence on strategic imports. The third section is devoted to the Guillaumont Economic Vulnerability Index, which considers factors such as country size, structural characteristics, and exposure to shocks. The fourth section examines the OECD Economic Vulnerability Index, which accounts for financial and non-financial sector imbalances, asset market disequilibria, public sector and external imbalances, and international risk contagion.Finally, the fifth section addresses the vulnerability of oil-exporting countries, with a specific focus on Iran, and provides an analysis of Iran’s economic risks.