Rebel group formation in Africa: Evidence from a new dataset

Theories of internal armed conflict onset often conceptualize an eruption emerging from pre-existing, non-violent opposition movements or organizations. This paper argues that this is not the most common pathway to armed conflict in Africa. It introduces new data on rebel group formation in 47 African states (1997–2015) that offers a more complete picture than existing conflict datasets; about two-thirds of the groups in the new dataset are not named in standard conflict datasets. The strong majority of these rebel groups formed in rural areas; did not emerge from nearby protest movements or civil society organizations; and initially did not benefit from substantial material resources nor commit large-scale violence. Analyses suggest that rebel groups forming in rural parts of African states draw less often on pre-war, public, non-violent contestation than those of urban areas. The paper highlights the need for more theory on the varied pathways to internal armed conflict, and the importance of – and challenges of collecting – systematic evidence on armed group formation.