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Planning for an unpredictable future: Transport in Great Britain in 2030

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  • Chatterjee, Kiron
  • Gordon, Andrew

Abstract

This paper describes a research study, which explores alternative future scenarios for Great Britain in the year 2030 and the implications these have for travel demand and transport provision. Five alternative future scenarios are represented in the GB national transport model and forecasts are obtained for trip making, traffic levels, congestion and emissions in 2030. For all scenarios it is expected that there will be significant traffic growth. Traffic growth is restricted most in scenarios including distance-based road charging on motorways and trunk roads. However, congestion and carbon dioxide emissions are most effectively limited in scenarios with congestion-based road charging, major improvements to urban public transport and investment in new fuel technologies and in improving engine efficiency.

Suggested Citation

  • Chatterjee, Kiron & Gordon, Andrew, 2006. "Planning for an unpredictable future: Transport in Great Britain in 2030," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 254-264, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:trapol:v:13:y:2006:i:3:p:254-264
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    Cited by:

    1. Chang, Suk-Gwon, 2015. "A structured scenario approach to multi-screen ecosystem forecasting in Korean communications market," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 1-20.
    2. Krumdieck, Susan & Page, Shannon & Dantas, André, 2010. "Urban form and long-term fuel supply decline: A method to investigate the peak oil risks to essential activities," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 44(5), pages 306-322, June.
    3. Spickermann, Alexander & Grienitz, Volker & von der Gracht, Heiko A., 2014. "Heading towards a multimodal city of the future?," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 201-221.
    4. Lovelace, Robin & Parkin, John & Cohen, Tom, 2020. "Open access transport models: A leverage point in sustainable transport planning," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 47-54.
    5. Glenn Lyons, 2016. "Transport analysis in an uncertain world," Transport Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(5), pages 553-557, September.
    6. Brouwer, Anne Sjoerd & Kuramochi, Takeshi & van den Broek, Machteld & Faaij, André, 2013. "Fulfilling the electricity demand of electric vehicles in the long term future: An evaluation of centralized and decentralized power supply systems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 33-51.

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