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Measuring cost and time overruns: median-based metrics, reform effect, and simultaneous estimation

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  • Odeck, James

Abstract

This paper addresses three key gaps in transportation research on cost and time overruns: (1) the overuse of Mean Percentage Error (MPE), despite the Median Percentage Error (MdnPE) being more appropriate for skewed data; (2) limited evaluation of government interventions aimed at reducing overruns; and (3) the failure to account for the interdependence between cost and time overruns, leading to biased estimates. Using a dataset of 2,228 Norwegian road projects (1993–2016), we assess overruns using both MdnPE and MPE, evaluate the effects of major organizational reforms, and apply a Three-Stage Least Squares (3SLS) estimation to correct for endogeneity between cost and time overruns. Unlike some studies, we rely solely on statistically observable factors and avoid subjective explanations such as the planning fallacy or strategic misrepresentation.

Suggested Citation

  • Odeck, James, 2025. "Measuring cost and time overruns: median-based metrics, reform effect, and simultaneous estimation," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 199(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:transa:v:199:y:2025:i:c:s0965856425002150
    DOI: 10.1016/j.tra.2025.104587
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Alexis Dinno, 2015. "Nonparametric pairwise multiple comparisons in independent groups using Dunn's test," Stata Journal, StataCorp LLC, vol. 15(1), pages 292-300, March.
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    5. James Odeck, 2019. "Variation in cost overruns of transportation projects: an econometric meta-regression analysis of studies reported in the literature," Transportation, Springer, vol. 46(4), pages 1345-1368, August.
    6. Love, Peter E.D. & Ahiaga-Dagbui, Dominic D., 2018. "Debunking fake news in a post-truth era: The plausible untruths of cost underestimation in transport infrastructure projects," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 357-368.
    7. Love, Peter E.D. & Zhou, Jingyang & Edwards, David J. & Irani, Zahir & Sing, Chun-Pong, 2017. "Off the rails: The cost performance of infrastructure rail projects," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 14-29.
    8. Love, Peter E.D. & Sing, Michael C.P. & Ika, Lavagnon A. & Newton, Sidney, 2019. "The cost performance of transportation projects: The fallacy of the Planning Fallacy account," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 1-20.
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