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Christmas and New Year as risk factors for death

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  • Phillips, David
  • Barker, Gwendolyn E.
  • Brewer, Kimberly M.

Abstract

This paper poses three questions: (1) Does mortality from natural causes spike around Christmas and New Year? (2) If so, does this spike exist for all major disease groups or only specialized groups? (3) If twin holiday spikes exist, need this imply that Christmas and New Year are risk factors for death? To answer these questions, we used all official U.S. death certificates, 1979-2004 (n = 57,451,944) in various hospital settings to examine daily mortality levels around Christmas and New Year. We measured the Christmas increase by comparing observed deaths with expected deaths in the week starting on Christmas. The New Year increase was measured similarly. The expected number of deaths was determined by locally weighted regression, given the null hypothesis that mortality is affected by seasons and trend but not by holidays. On Christmas and New Year, mortality from natural causes spikes in dead-on-arrival (DOA) and emergency department (ED) settings. There are more DOA/ED deaths on 12/25, 12/26, and 1/1 than on any other day. In contrast, deaths in non-DOA/ED settings display no holiday spikes. For DOA/ED settings, there are holiday spikes for each of the top five disease groups (circulatory diseases; neoplasms; respiratory diseases; endocrine/nutritional/metabolic diseases; digestive diseases). For all settings combined, there are holiday spikes for most major disease groups and for all demographic groups, except children. In the two weeks starting with Christmas, there is an excess of 42,325 deaths from natural causes above and beyond the normal winter increase. Christmas and New Year appear to be risk factors for deaths from many diseases. We tested nine possible explanations for these risk factors, but further research is needed.

Suggested Citation

  • Phillips, David & Barker, Gwendolyn E. & Brewer, Kimberly M., 2010. "Christmas and New Year as risk factors for death," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 71(8), pages 1463-1471, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:socmed:v:71:y:2010:i:8:p:1463-1471
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Bergen, Helen & Hawton, Keith, 2007. "Variation in deliberate self-harm around Christmas and New Year," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 65(5), pages 855-867, September.
    2. Crighton, Eric J. & Elliott, Susan J. & Moineddin, Rahim & Kanaroglou, Pavlos & Upshur, Ross, 2007. "A spatial analysis of the determinants of pneumonia and influenza hospitalizations in Ontario (1992-2001)," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 64(8), pages 1636-1650, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Gabriele M. Lepori, 2021. "A nonrandom walk down Hollywood boulevard: Celebrity deaths and investor sentiment," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 56(3), pages 591-613, August.
    2. Tina Ho & Andrew Noymer, 2017. "Summertime, and the livin’ is easy: Winter and summer pseudoseasonal life expectancy in the United States," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 37(45), pages 1445-1476.
    3. Laura Birg & Anna Goeddeke, 2016. "Christmas Economics—A Sleigh Ride," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 54(4), pages 1980-1984, October.
    4. Chunzhou Mu & Jane Hall, 2023. "Marital status and hospital use in older adults," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 62(2), pages 185-213, June.
    5. Frans Willekens, 2013. "Chronological objects in demographic research," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 28(23), pages 649-680.
    6. Marco Vincenzo Lenti & Catherine Klersy & Alice Silvia Brera & Valeria Musella & Irene Benedetti & Lucia Padovini & Mariella Ciola & Gabriele Croce & Alessia Ballesio & Maria Fortunata Gorgone & Giamp, 2020. "Clinical complexity and hospital admissions in the December holiday period," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(6), pages 1-10, June.
    7. Peña, Pablo A., 2015. "A not so happy day after all: Excess death rates on birthdays in the U.S," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 59-66.

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