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Inpatient/outpatient health care costs and remaining years of life--effect of decreasing mortality on future acute health care demand

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  • Batljan, Ilija
  • Lagergren, Mårten

Abstract

The article introduces a method that may be used to estimate how demographic changes may affect future demand for inpatient/outpatient health care. The method is useful in order to refine estimation of demographic influence on demand in the process of health human resources planning. Empirical evidence focuses on the connection between health care costs and remaining years of life. We estimate the demographically determined rise in inpatient/outpatient health care demand in Sweden in the period 2000-2030. The increase arrived at, by means of our method, is circa 37% lower than estimates done with a simple demographical extrapolation, which does not take the decreasing mortality pattern into account.

Suggested Citation

  • Batljan, Ilija & Lagergren, Mårten, 2004. "Inpatient/outpatient health care costs and remaining years of life--effect of decreasing mortality on future acute health care demand," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 59(12), pages 2459-2466, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:socmed:v:59:y:2004:i:12:p:2459-2466
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Karlsson, Martin & Klohn, Florian, 2011. "Some notes on how to catch a red herring: Ageing, time-to-death & care costs for older people in Sweden," Darmstadt Discussion Papers in Economics 207, Darmstadt University of Technology, Department of Law and Economics.
    2. Torben Andersen & Mikkel Hermansen, 2014. "Durable consumption, saving and retirement," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 27(3), pages 825-840, July.
    3. Murphy, Michael & Martikainen, Pekka, 2013. "Use of hospital and long-term institutional care services in relation to proximity to death among older people in Finland," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 39-47.
    4. Gielen, Birgit & Remacle, Anne & Mertens, Raf, 2010. "Patterns of health care use and expenditure during the last 6 months of life in Belgium: Differences between age categories in cancer and non-cancer patients," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 97(1), pages 53-61, September.
    5. Davis, Peter & Lay-Yee, Roy & Pearson, Janet, 2010. "Using micro-simulation to create a synthesised data set and test policy options: The case of health service effects under demographic ageing," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 97(2-3), pages 267-274, October.
    6. Astolfi, Roberto & Lorenzoni, Luca & Oderkirk, Jillian, 2012. "Informing policy makers about future health spending: A comparative analysis of forecasting methods in OECD countries," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 107(1), pages 1-10.

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