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Supply projections as planning: A critical review of forecasting net physician requirements in Canada


  • Lomas, Jonathan
  • Stoddart, Greg L.
  • Barer, Morris L.


This study involves a critical review of the current methods used to establish net future physician manpower requirements in Canada. The paper explores specific examples of physician manpower forecasting in Canada, and contrasts them with an extensive U.S. exercise completed recently. The conceptual and measurement difficulties inherent in the Canadian methodology are outlined. Particular attention is paid to the various factors that can potentially influence physician requirements but which are omitted from consideration in traditional forecasting. The paper concludes with a discussion of the definition of 'need' in the context of physician requirements.

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  • Lomas, Jonathan & Stoddart, Greg L. & Barer, Morris L., 1985. "Supply projections as planning: A critical review of forecasting net physician requirements in Canada," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 411-424, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:socmed:v:20:y:1985:i:4:p:411-424

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Temin, Peter, 1983. "Costs and benefits in switching drugs from Rx to OTC," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 187-205, December.
    2. Foster, S. D., 1990. "Improving the supply and use of essential drugs in sub-Saharan Africa," Policy Research Working Paper Series 456, The World Bank.
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    Cited by:

    1. Denton, Frank T. & Gafni, Amiram & Spencer, Byron G., 1995. "The SHARP way to plan health care services: A description of the system and some illustrative applications in nursing human resource planning," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 125-137, June.
    2. repec:kap:hcarem:v:21:y:2018:i:1:d:10.1007_s10729-016-9379-x is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Stephen Birch & George Kephart & Gail Tomblin-Murphy & Linda O'Brien-Pallas & Rob Alder & Adrian MacKenzie, 2007. "Human Resources Planning and the Production of Health: A Needs-Based Analytical Framework," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 33(s1), pages 1-16, January.

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