IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/reveco/v97y2025ics1059056024007494.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Analysis of the impact of macroeconomic factors on cryptocurrency returns - Based on quantile regression study

Author

Listed:
  • Lin, Minghui
  • Liu, Ye
  • Sheng, Vincent Ng Kim

Abstract

This paper uses data from January 2018 to early May 2024 as a sample to study the impact of macroeconomic factors on cryptocurrency returns. The empirical study finds that the price index of means of production significantly negatively impacts bitcoin returns. The US dollar exchange rate also significantly negatively impacts bitcoin returns, while Treasury yields have a positive effect.

Suggested Citation

  • Lin, Minghui & Liu, Ye & Sheng, Vincent Ng Kim, 2025. "Analysis of the impact of macroeconomic factors on cryptocurrency returns - Based on quantile regression study," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:reveco:v:97:y:2025:i:c:s1059056024007494
    DOI: 10.1016/j.iref.2024.103757
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1059056024007494
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.iref.2024.103757?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bouri, Elie & Lucey, Brian & Roubaud, David, 2020. "Cryptocurrencies and the downside risk in equity investments," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 33(C).
    2. Ali, Shoaib & Naveed, Muhammad & Yousaf, Imran & Khattak, Muhammad Sualeh, 2024. "From cryptos to consciousness: Dynamics of return and volatility spillover between green cryptocurrencies and G7 markets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    3. Lin, Zih-Ying, 2021. "Investor attention and cryptocurrency performance," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 40(C).
    4. Bitetto, Alessandro & Cerchiello, Paola & Mertzanis, Charilaos, 2023. "On the efficient synthesis of short financial time series: A Dynamic Factor Model approach," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    5. Liu, Jian & Julaiti, Jiansuer & Gou, Shangde, 2024. "Decomposing interconnectedness: A study of cryptocurrency spillover effects in global financial markets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    6. Elsayed, Ahmed H. & Gozgor, Giray & Lau, Chi Keung Marco, 2022. "Risk transmissions between bitcoin and traditional financial assets during the COVID-19 era: The role of global uncertainties," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    7. Kawamoto, Takuji & Nakazawa, Takashi & Kishaba, Yui & Matsumura, Kohei & Nakajima, Jouchi, 2023. "Estimating the macroeconomic effects of Japan’s expansionary monetary policy under Quantitative and Qualitative Monetary Easing during 2013–2020," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 208-224.
    8. Liu, Shan & Li, Ziwei, 2023. "Macroeconomic attention and oil futures volatility prediction," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    9. Umar, Zaghum & Trabelsi, Nader & Alqahtani, Faisal, 2021. "Connectedness between cryptocurrency and technology sectors: International evidence," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 910-922.
    10. Vidal-Tomás, David, 2022. "Which cryptocurrency data sources should scholars use?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    11. Yue, Yao & Li, Xuerong & Zhang, Dingxuan & Wang, Shouyang, 2021. "How cryptocurrency affects economy? A network analysis using bibliometric methods," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    12. Yang, Boyu & Sun, Yuying & Wang, Shouyang, 2020. "A novel two-stage approach for cryptocurrency analysis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    13. Naeem, Muhammad Abubakr & Mbarki, Imen & Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain, 2021. "Predictive role of online investor sentiment for cryptocurrency market: Evidence from happiness and fears," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 496-514.
    14. Ante, Lennart & Fiedler, Ingo & Strehle, Elias, 2021. "The influence of stablecoin issuances on cryptocurrency markets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 41(C).
    15. Mohammed, Kamel Si & Obeid, Hassan & Oueslati, Karim & Kaabia, Olfa, 2023. "Investor sentiments, economic policy uncertainty, US interest rates, and financial assets: Examining their interdependence over time," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    16. Oumayma Gharbi & Yousra Trichilli & Mouna Boujelbéne, 2023. "Risk spillovers connectedness between the US Fintech industry VaR, behavioral biases and macroeconomic instability factors: COVID-19 implications," China Finance Review International, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 13(3), pages 410-443, June.
    17. Qiao, Xingzhi & Zhu, Huiming & Hau, Liya, 2020. "Time-frequency co-movement of cryptocurrency return and volatility: Evidence from wavelet coherence analysis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    18. Vidal-Tomás, David, 2021. "Transitions in the cryptocurrency market during the COVID-19 pandemic: A network analysis," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 43(C).
    19. Scharnowski, Stefan, 2024. "Dark web traffic, privacy coins, and cryptocurrency trading activity," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 67(PB).
    20. Yousaf, Imran & Abrar, Afsheen & Yousaf, Umair Bin & Goodell, John W., 2024. "Environmental attention and uncertainties of cryptocurrency market: Examining linkages with crypto-mining stocks," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    21. Abakah, Emmanuel Joel Aikins & Gil-Alana, Luis Alberiko & Madigu, Godfrey & Romero-Rojo, Fatima, 2020. "Volatility persistence in cryptocurrency markets under structural breaks," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 680-691.
    22. Preeti Sharma & Avinash K. Shrivastava & Sachin Rohatgi & Bhakti Bhushan Mishra, 2023. "Impact of macroeconomic variables on sustainability indices using ARDL model," Journal of Sustainable Finance & Investment, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(1), pages 572-588, January.
    23. Taghizadeh-Hesary, Farhad & Phoumin, Han & Rasoulinezhad, Ehsan, 2022. "COVID-19 and regional solutions for mitigating the risk of SME finance in selected ASEAN member states," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 506-525.
    24. Meyer, Eva Andrea & Welpe, Isabell M. & Sandner, Philipp, 2024. "Testing the credibility of crypto influencers: An event study on Bitcoin," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    25. Leirvik, Thomas, 2022. "Cryptocurrency returns and the volatility of liquidity," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 44(C).
    26. Goodell, John W. & Goutte, Stephane, 2021. "Diversifying equity with cryptocurrencies during COVID-19," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    27. Mohammad Sharik Essa & Evangelos Giouvris, 2023. "Fama–French–Carhart Factor-Based Premiums in the US REIT Market: A Risk Based Explanation, and the Impact of Financial Distress and Liquidity Crisis from 2001 to 2020," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 11(1), pages 1-39, January.
    28. Baker, H. Kent & Kumar, Satish & Goyal, Kirti & Sharma, Anuj, 2021. "International review of financial analysis: A retrospective evaluation between 1992 and 2020," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    29. Tran, Vu Le & Leirvik, Thomas, 2020. "Efficiency in the markets of crypto-currencies," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 35(C).
    30. Kong, Xiaolin & Ma, Chaoqun & Ren, Yi-Shuai & Baltas, Konstantinos & Narayan, Seema, 2024. "A comparative analysis of the price explosiveness in Bitcoin and forked coins," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    31. Shang, Dawei & Guo, Ziyu & Wang, Hui, 2024. "Enhancing digital cryptocurrency trading price prediction with an attention-based convolutional and recurrent neural network approach: The case of Ethereum," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 67(PB).
    32. Wei, Yu & Hu, Rui & Zhang, Jiahao & Wang, Qian, 2024. "Does the carbon market signal the market efficiency of clean and dirty cryptocurrencies? An analysis of quantile directional dependence," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 67(PB).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Balcilar, Mehmet & Ozdemir, Huseyin & Agan, Busra, 2022. "Effects of COVID-19 on cryptocurrency and emerging market connectedness: Empirical evidence from quantile, frequency, and lasso networks," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 604(C).
    2. Aiman Hairudin & Azhar Mohamad, 2024. "The isotropy of cryptocurrency volatility," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(3), pages 3779-3810, July.
    3. Fung, Kennard & Jeong, Jiin & Pereira, Javier, 2022. "More to cryptos than bitcoin: A GARCH modelling of heterogeneous cryptocurrencies," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 47(PA).
    4. Bouteska, Ahmed & Sharif, Taimur & Abedin, Mohammad Zoynul, 2023. "Volatility spillovers and other dynamics between cryptocurrencies and the energy and bond markets," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 1-13.
    5. Ahmed, Walid M.A., 2021. "How do Islamic equity markets respond to good and bad volatility of cryptocurrencies? The case of Bitcoin," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    6. Zhang, Dingxuan & Sun, Yuying & Duan, Hongbo & Hong, Yongmiao & Wang, Shouyang, 2023. "Speculation or currency? Multi-scale analysis of cryptocurrencies—The case of Bitcoin," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    7. Bhuvaneskumar Annamalaisamy & Sivakumar Vepur Jayaraman, 2024. "Do cryptocurrencies integrate with the indices of equity, sustainability, clean energy, and crude oil? A wavelet coherency approach," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(3), pages 3372-3392, July.
    8. Nitithumbundit, Thanakorn & Chan, Jennifer S.K., 2022. "Covid-19 impact on Cryptocurrencies market using Multivariate Time Series Models," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 365-375.
    9. Mercik, Aleksander & Słoński, Tomasz & Karaś, Marta, 2024. "Understanding crypto-asset exposure: An investigation of its impact on performance and stock sensitivity among listed companies," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    10. Migliavacca, Milena & Goodell, John W. & Paltrinieri, Andrea, 2023. "A bibliometric review of portfolio diversification literature," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    11. Bouteska, Ahmed & Sharif, Taimur & Isskandarani, Layal & Abedin, Mohammad Zoynul, 2025. "Market efficiency and its determinants: Macro-level dynamics and micro-level characteristics of cryptocurrencies," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    12. Chen, Bin-xia & Sun, Yan-lin, 2024. "Risk characteristics and connectedness in cryptocurrency markets: New evidence from a non-linear framework," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(PA).
    13. Saggu, Aman & Ante, Lennart & Kopiec, Kaja, 2025. "Uncertain Regulations, Definite Impacts: The Impact of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission's Regulatory Interventions on Crypto Assets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    14. Ali, Fahad & Bouri, Elie & Naifar, Nader & Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & AlAhmad, Mohammad, 2022. "An examination of whether gold-backed Islamic cryptocurrencies are safe havens for international Islamic equity markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    15. Bennett, Donyetta & Mekelburg, Erik & Williams, T.H., 2023. "BeFi meets DeFi: A behavioral finance approach to decentralized finance asset pricing," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    16. Chen, Wei-Peng & Wu, Chih-Chiang & Aimable, Withz, 2025. "Cryptocurrency market spillover in times of uncertainty," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    17. Andrew Phiri, 2022. "Can wavelets produce a clearer picture of weak-form market efficiency in Bitcoin?," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 12(3), pages 373-386, September.
    18. Susovon Jana & Tarak N. Sahu, 2023. "Is the cryptocurrency market a hedge against stock market risk? A Wavelet and GARCH approach," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 52(3), November.
    19. Rudkin, Simon & Rudkin, Wanling & Dłotko, Paweł, 2023. "On the topology of cryptocurrency markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    20. Conlon, Thomas & Corbet, Shaen & McGee, Richard J., 2024. "The Bitcoin volume-volatility relationship: A high frequency analysis of futures and spot exchanges," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:reveco:v:97:y:2025:i:c:s1059056024007494. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620165 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.