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Modeling contribution to risk assessment of thermal production power for geothermal reservoirs

Author

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  • Vogt, Christian
  • Iwanowski-Strahser, Katja
  • Marquart, Gabriele
  • Arnold, Juliane
  • Mottaghy, Darius
  • Pechnig, Renate
  • Gnjezda, Daniel
  • Clauser, Christoph

Abstract

We analyze the likelihood of success for heat production strategies in a sandstone reservoir in the north-eastern German basin in a depth of about 2 km by simulating both double and single well configurations. For this test case study we use an exploited oil and gas field. We combine seismic interpretation, numerical modeling, and stochastic estimation of rock properties to predict the transient temperature and pressure variations and their uncertainties in a geothermal reservoir. We demonstrate the essential necessity in geothermal reservoir modeling to account for heterogeneity of rock properties. We use 3D seismic data and stratigraphy data from about 100 wells at 1500 m – 2500 m depth for setting up a 3D stratigraphic model. Rock properties are assigned to this model by a Monte Carlo approach using Sequential Gaussian Simulation. Using 3D inversion of temperature data obtained in the wells we estimate a specific heat flow of 77.7 mW m−2 ± 1.2 mW m−2 at 6 km depth, in agreement with a temperature of 87.1 °C ± 1.8 K in the Rhaetian sandstone target layer at a depth of ∼2 km. For different types of potential geothermal well installations inside the Rhaetian sandstone layer the probability of success is just 1.6%.

Suggested Citation

  • Vogt, Christian & Iwanowski-Strahser, Katja & Marquart, Gabriele & Arnold, Juliane & Mottaghy, Darius & Pechnig, Renate & Gnjezda, Daniel & Clauser, Christoph, 2013. "Modeling contribution to risk assessment of thermal production power for geothermal reservoirs," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 230-241.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:renene:v:53:y:2013:i:c:p:230-241
    DOI: 10.1016/j.renene.2012.11.026
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Compernolle, Tine & Welkenhuysen, Kris & Petitclerc, Estelle & Maes, Dries & Piessens, Kris, 2019. "The impact of policy measures on profitability and risk in geothermal energy investments," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    2. Daniilidis, Alexandros & Alpsoy, Betül & Herber, Rien, 2017. "Impact of technical and economic uncertainties on the economic performance of a deep geothermal heat system," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 114(PB), pages 805-816.
    3. Saeid, Sanaz & Al-Khoury, Rafid & Nick, Hamidreza M. & Hicks, Michael A., 2015. "A prototype design model for deep low-enthalpy hydrothermal systems," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 408-422.
    4. Babaei, Masoud & Nick, Hamidreza M., 2019. "Performance of low-enthalpy geothermal systems: Interplay of spatially correlated heterogeneity and well-doublet spacings," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 253(C), pages 1-1.
    5. Wang, Yang & Voskov, Denis & Khait, Mark & Saeid, Sanaz & Bruhn, David, 2021. "Influential factors on the development of a low-enthalpy geothermal reservoir: A sensitivity study of a realistic field," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 179(C), pages 641-651.
    6. Franco, Alessandro & Vaccaro, Maurizio, 2014. "Numerical simulation of geothermal reservoirs for the sustainable design of energy plants: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 987-1002.

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