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Integrated energy system planning considering renewable energy uncertainties based on multi-scenario confidence gap decision

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  • Peng, Chunhua
  • Fan, Guozhu
  • Xiong, Zhisheng
  • Zeng, Xinzhi
  • Sun, Huijuan
  • Xu, Xuesong

Abstract

The problem of renewable energy uncertainties in the capacity planning of integrated energy system (IES) is prominent. To handle the multiple uncertainties, multi-scenario clustering analysis and classified confidence intervals of Gaussian mixture model (GMM) are combined, along with the robustness idea of information gap decision theory (IGDT), so a novel multi-scenario confidence gap decision theory (MCGDT) is proposed. Considering the comprehensive optimization objectives of maximizing exergy efficiency and minimizing annualized total cost, a robust capacity planning model for IES based on MCGDT is constructed to promote the cascade utilization of multiple energy and the economic performance of IES. Moreover, a new cross entropy-radar scanning differential evolution (CE-RSDE) algorithm is designed to improve solution efficiency and avoid prematurity in the optimization process. The simulation results of a typical case suggest that the proposed method leads to better capacity planning of IES, with up to 7.55% reduction of the annualized total cost and 14.03% increase in the exergy efficiency, while keeping strong robustness under the environment of multiple uncertainties.

Suggested Citation

  • Peng, Chunhua & Fan, Guozhu & Xiong, Zhisheng & Zeng, Xinzhi & Sun, Huijuan & Xu, Xuesong, 2023. "Integrated energy system planning considering renewable energy uncertainties based on multi-scenario confidence gap decision," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:renene:v:216:y:2023:i:c:s0960148123010145
    DOI: 10.1016/j.renene.2023.119100
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Farrokhifar, Meisam & Nie, Yinghui & Pozo, David, 2020. "Energy systems planning: A survey on models for integrated power and natural gas networks coordination," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 262(C).
    2. Wei, Jingdong & Zhang, Yao & Wang, Jianxue & Cao, Xiaoyu & Khan, Muhammad Armoghan, 2020. "Multi-period planning of multi-energy microgrid with multi-type uncertainties using chance constrained information gap decision method," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 260(C).
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    1. Li, Yuxuan & Zhang, Junli & Wu, Xiao & Shen, Jiong & Maréchal, François, 2023. "Stochastic-robust planning optimization method based on tracking-economy extreme scenario tradeoff for CCHP multi-energy system," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 283(C).

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