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Climate change impacts on potential solar energy production: A study case in Fukushima, Japan

Author

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  • Oka, Kazutaka
  • Mizutani, Wataru
  • Ashina, Shuichi

Abstract

To construct a long-term energy plan for renewable energies such as photovoltaics (PV), the influence of meteorological conditions on energy yield must be considered. It is necessary to understand how climate change impacts energy generation. For that purpose, a method to estimate PV energy generation considering climate change scenarios was developed. The developed method can estimate hourly generation amounts with spatial resolutions of 1-km mesh. It was applied to Fukushima Prefecture, located in the northeast region of Japan. To establish future scenarios three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) and seven Global Climate Models (GCM) were analyzed, and uncertainties caused by differences in future scenarios were investigated. The results show that annual generation of PV energy was estimated to increase on average by 1.7% in 2030, 3.9% in 2050, and 4.9% in 2070 due to climate change. Energy plans and adaptation actions are expected to be performed so the country is prepared for future impacts.

Suggested Citation

  • Oka, Kazutaka & Mizutani, Wataru & Ashina, Shuichi, 2020. "Climate change impacts on potential solar energy production: A study case in Fukushima, Japan," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 153(C), pages 249-260.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:renene:v:153:y:2020:i:c:p:249-260
    DOI: 10.1016/j.renene.2020.01.126
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Shiraki, Hiroto & Nakamura, Shogo & Ashina, Shuichi & Honjo, Keita, 2016. "Estimating the hourly electricity profile of Japanese households – Coupling of engineering and statistical methods," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 478-491.
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