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Multi-hazard coupling fragility analysis for steel cylindrical tanks subjected to earthquake-tsunami sequence

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  • Men, Jinkun
  • Chen, Guohua

Abstract

Recently, research on process equipment fragility analysis has received widespread attention due to increasingly frequent Natech events. Existing fragility analysis methods mainly focus on one-off major hazards. However, large-scale natural disasters may be combined in a chain reaction manner, resulting in catastrophic multi-hazard coupling scenarios (MHCSs). Focusing on the typical disaster chain “earthquake-tsunami†, the failure behavior of steel cylindrical tanks (SCTs) subjected to the earthquake-tsunami sequence is extremely complicated. In this work, an earthquake-tsunami coupling fragility analysis methodology is proposed, in which coupling failure limit state equations of tank floating, sliding and buckling are constructed. On this basis, the logistic regression is adopted to develop parameterized coupling fragility analysis models. The proposed model is validated by case studies of a 5000 m3 SCT. Analysis results indicate that seismic damage significantly increases the failure probability of SCTs under tsunami impact loads. The proposed methodology can predict the failure behaviors of SCTs exposed to different earthquake and tsunami impact loads with satisfactory accuracy. The impacts of aspect ratio and liquid level height on coupling fragility are discussed and quantified through sensitivity analysis. Compared with single-hazard fragility analysis, the proposed methodology can provide a more comprehensive perspective for tank safety design to cope with cascading natural disaster chains.

Suggested Citation

  • Men, Jinkun & Chen, Guohua, 2026. "Multi-hazard coupling fragility analysis for steel cylindrical tanks subjected to earthquake-tsunami sequence," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 269(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:269:y:2026:i:c:s0951832025012402
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2025.112041
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