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Corroded submarine pipeline degradation prediction based on theory-guided IMOSOA-EL model

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  • Miao, Xingyuan
  • Zhao, Hong

Abstract

Submarine pipelines play an important role in the oil and gas transportation. However, pipeline corrosion can cause the structural degradation of pipelines, which may lead to failure accident and environmental pollution. Pipeline degradation prediction based on monitoring data is of great significance for preventing corrosion failure. In this paper, an ensemble learning (EL) based approach integrated with multi-objective optimization is developed for pipeline corrosion degradation prediction. Firstly, the engineering theory and domain knowledge are integrated into feature engineering to improve the interpretability. Several new feature variables are constructed based on the corrosion mechanism and empirical models. Secondly, an improved multi-objective seagull optimization algorithm (IMOSOA) is proposed to optimize the hyper-parameters of EL model. Subsequently, a novel data-driven model, so-called theory-guided IMOSOA-EL is proposed for the corrosion rate prediction. And six benchmark functions are used to verify the optimization performance of IMOSOA. Then, different feature subsets are developed based on correlation analysis. A comprehensive evaluation indicator is proposed for the optimal feature subset selection. The results demonstrate that the proposed model presents superiority in prediction accuracy compared with other models. This study is significant for reliability assessment and maintenance decision-making of submarine pipelines.

Suggested Citation

  • Miao, Xingyuan & Zhao, Hong, 2024. "Corroded submarine pipeline degradation prediction based on theory-guided IMOSOA-EL model," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 243(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:243:y:2024:i:c:s0951832023008165
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2023.109902
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    8. Zheng, Qiushuang & Zhang, Hu & Liu, Hongbing & Xu, Hao & Xu, Bo & Zhu, Zhenhao, 2025. "Intelligent prediction model for pitting corrosion risk in pipelines using developed ResNet and feature reconstruction with interpretability analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 264(PA).
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    13. Xiao, Rui & Sushama, Laxmi & Meguid, Mohamed A. & Zayed, Tarek, 2026. "Evaluating the influence of climate change on the deterioration and bearing capacity of corroded gas pipelines," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 267(PB).

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