IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/reensy/v216y2021ics095183202100466x.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

An efficient and robust Kriging-based method for system reliability analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Wang, Jian
  • Sun, Zhili
  • Cao, Runan

Abstract

System reliability analysis involving multiple failure modes is challenging when performance functions are associated with time-consuming codes. This paper aims to enhance the efficiency of system reliability analysis by reducing the number of evaluations of time-consuming models. To achieve that, an adaptive Kriging-based method is proposed. In order to develop the method, a quantificational error measure of Kriging models (i.e. surrogate models of performance functions associated with each failure mode) is first derived. The stepwise accuracy-improvement strategy (SAIS) is then modified to solve system reliability problems, and the modified SAIS is called SAIS-SYS. The method for system reliability analysis is finally developed based on the derived error measure and SAIS-SYS. In the proposed method, Kriging models, i.e. the surrogate models of original performance functions, are adaptively refreshed according to SAIS-SYS until the associated error measure is smaller than a prescribed threshold. After Kriging models meet with accuracy requirement, the system failure probability can be obtained through a random simulation method and no additional evaluations of original performance functions is needed. The accuracy, efficiency and robustness of the proposed method are validated by four examples.

Suggested Citation

  • Wang, Jian & Sun, Zhili & Cao, Runan, 2021. "An efficient and robust Kriging-based method for system reliability analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:216:y:2021:i:c:s095183202100466x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2021.107953
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S095183202100466X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ress.2021.107953?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sun, Zhili & Wang, Jian & Li, Rui & Tong, Cao, 2017. "LIF: A new Kriging based learning function and its application to structural reliability analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 152-165.
    2. Perrin, G., 2016. "Active learning surrogate models for the conception of systems with multiple failure modes," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 149(C), pages 130-136.
    3. Jian, Wang & Zhili, Sun & Qiang, Yang & Rui, Li, 2017. "Two accuracy measures of the Kriging model for structural reliability analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 167(C), pages 494-505.
    4. Jiang, Chen & Qiu, Haobo & Gao, Liang & Wang, Dapeng & Yang, Zan & Chen, Liming, 2020. "EEK-SYS: System reliability analysis through estimation error-guided adaptive Kriging approximation of multiple limit state surfaces," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 198(C).
    5. Zhang, Xufang & Wang, Lei & Sørensen, John Dalsgaard, 2019. "REIF: A novel active-learning function toward adaptive Kriging surrogate models for structural reliability analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 185(C), pages 440-454.
    6. Bichon, Barron J. & McFarland, John M. & Mahadevan, Sankaran, 2011. "Efficient surrogate models for reliability analysis of systems with multiple failure modes," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 96(10), pages 1386-1395.
    7. Fauriat, W. & Gayton, N., 2014. "AK-SYS: An adaptation of the AK-MCS method for system reliability," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 137-144.
    8. Jiang, Chen & Qiu, Haobo & Yang, Zan & Chen, Liming & Gao, Liang & Li, Peigen, 2019. "A general failure-pursuing sampling framework for surrogate-based reliability analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 47-59.
    9. Wang, Zeyu & Shafieezadeh, Abdollah, 2019. "REAK: Reliability analysis through Error rate-based Adaptive Kriging," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 182(C), pages 33-45.
    10. Dong, Y. & Teixeira, A.P. & Guedes Soares, C., 2020. "Application of adaptive surrogate models in time-variant fatigue reliability assessment of welded joints with surface cracks," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 195(C).
    11. Coolen, Frank P.A. & Coolen-Maturi, Tahani, 2016. "The structure function for system reliability as predictive (imprecise) probability," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 180-187.
    12. Echard, B. & Gayton, N. & Lemaire, M. & Relun, N., 2013. "A combined Importance Sampling and Kriging reliability method for small failure probabilities with time-demanding numerical models," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 232-240.
    13. Gaspar, B. & Teixeira, A.P. & Guedes Soares, C., 2017. "Adaptive surrogate model with active refinement combining Kriging and a trust region method," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 277-291.
    14. Zhou, Yicheng & Lu, Zhenzhou & Yun, Wanying, 2020. "Active sparse polynomial chaos expansion for system reliability analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 202(C).
    15. Yuan, Kai & Xiao, Ning-Cong & Wang, Zhonglai & Shang, Kun, 2020. "System reliability analysis by combining structure function and active learning kriging model," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 195(C).
    16. Yang, Xufeng & Liu, Yongshou & Mi, Caiying & Tang, Chenghu, 2018. "System reliability analysis through active learning Kriging model with truncated candidate region," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 235-241.
    17. Sadoughi, Mohammadkazem & Li, Meng & Hu, Chao, 2018. "Multivariate system reliability analysis considering highly nonlinear and dependent safety events," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 180(C), pages 189-200.
    18. Wen, Zhixun & Pei, Haiqing & Liu, Hai & Yue, Zhufeng, 2016. "A Sequential Kriging reliability analysis method with characteristics of adaptive sampling regions and parallelizability," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 153(C), pages 170-179.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Chunyan, Ling & Jingzhe, Lei & Way, Kuo, 2022. "Bayesian support vector machine for optimal reliability design of modular systems," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 228(C).
    2. Haoyuan, Shen & Yizhong, Ma & Chenglong, Lin & Jian, Zhou & Lijun, Liu, 2023. "Hierarchical Bayesian support vector regression with model parameter calibration for reliability modeling and prediction," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 229(C).
    3. Guo, Tiexin & Wang, Hongji & Li, Jinglai & Wang, Hongqiao, 2024. "Sampling-based adaptive design strategy for failure probability estimation," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 241(C).
    4. Yu, Ting & Lu, Zhenzhou & Yun, Wanying, 2023. "An efficient algorithm for analyzing multimode structure system reliability by a new learning function of most reducing average probability of misjudging system state," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 230(C).
    5. Zhou, Jin & Li, Jie, 2023. "IE-AK: A novel adaptive sampling strategy based on information entropy for Kriging in metamodel-based reliability analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 229(C).
    6. Mohamed M. Elsharkawy & Abd El Aziz S. Sheta & Paola D’Antonio & Mohammed S. Abdelwahed & Antonio Scopa, 2022. "Tool for the Establishment of Agro-Management Zones Using GIS Techniques for Precision Farming in Egypt," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(9), pages 1-26, April.
    7. Li, Peiping & Wang, Yu, 2022. "An active learning reliability analysis method using adaptive Bayesian compressive sensing and Monte Carlo simulation (ABCS-MCS)," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 221(C).
    8. Bakeer, Tammam, 2023. "General partial safety factor theory for the assessment of the reliability of nonlinear structural systems," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 234(C).
    9. Shang, Xiaobing & Su, Li & Fang, Hai & Zeng, Bowen & Zhang, Zhi, 2023. "An efficient multi-fidelity Kriging surrogate model-based method for global sensitivity analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 229(C).
    10. Zhang, Zheng & Wang, Pan & Hu, Huanhuan & Li, Lei & Li, Haihe & Yue, Zhufeng, 2022. "Efficient reliability-based design optimization for hydraulic pipeline with adaptive sampling region," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 226(C).
    11. Zheng, Xiaohu & Yao, Wen & Zhang, Yunyang & Zhang, Xiaoya, 2022. "Consistency regularization-based deep polynomial chaos neural network method for reliability analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 227(C).
    12. Wang, Yanzhong & Xie, Bin & E, Shiyuan, 2022. "Adaptive relevance vector machine combined with Markov-chain-based importance sampling for reliability analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 220(C).
    13. Castellon, Dario Fernandez & Fenerci, Aksel & Petersen, Øyvind Wiig & Øiseth, Ole, 2023. "Full long-term buffeting analysis of suspension bridges using Gaussian process surrogate modelling and importance sampling Monte Carlo simulations," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 235(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jiang, Chen & Qiu, Haobo & Gao, Liang & Wang, Dapeng & Yang, Zan & Chen, Liming, 2020. "EEK-SYS: System reliability analysis through estimation error-guided adaptive Kriging approximation of multiple limit state surfaces," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 198(C).
    2. Yang, Seonghyeok & Lee, Mingyu & Lee, Ikjin, 2023. "A new sampling approach for system reliability-based design optimization under multiple simulation models," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 231(C).
    3. Teixeira, Rui & Nogal, Maria & O’Connor, Alan & Martinez-Pastor, Beatriz, 2020. "Reliability assessment with density scanned adaptive Kriging," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 199(C).
    4. Yang, Seonghyeok & Jo, Hwisang & Lee, Kyungeun & Lee, Ikjin, 2022. "Expected system improvement (ESI): A new learning function for system reliability analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 222(C).
    5. Teixeira, Rui & Martinez-Pastor, Beatriz & Nogal, Maria & O’Connor, Alan, 2021. "Reliability analysis using a multi-metamodel complement-basis approach," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 205(C).
    6. Zhang, Jinhao & Gao, Liang & Xiao, Mi, 2020. "A composite-projection-outline-based approximation method for system reliability analysis with hybrid uncertainties," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 204(C).
    7. Xiao, Mi & Zhang, Jinhao & Gao, Liang, 2020. "A system active learning Kriging method for system reliability-based design optimization with a multiple response model," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 199(C).
    8. Zhou, Yicheng & Lu, Zhenzhou & Yun, Wanying, 2020. "Active sparse polynomial chaos expansion for system reliability analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 202(C).
    9. Zhang, Xufang & Wang, Lei & Sørensen, John Dalsgaard, 2019. "REIF: A novel active-learning function toward adaptive Kriging surrogate models for structural reliability analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 185(C), pages 440-454.
    10. Yuan, Kai & Xiao, Ning-Cong & Wang, Zhonglai & Shang, Kun, 2020. "System reliability analysis by combining structure function and active learning kriging model," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 195(C).
    11. Saraygord Afshari, Sajad & Enayatollahi, Fatemeh & Xu, Xiangyang & Liang, Xihui, 2022. "Machine learning-based methods in structural reliability analysis: A review," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 219(C).
    12. Chen, Weidong & Xu, Chunlong & Shi, Yaqin & Ma, Jingxin & Lu, Shengzhuo, 2019. "A hybrid Kriging-based reliability method for small failure probabilities," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 189(C), pages 31-41.
    13. Shi, Yan & Lu, Zhenzhou & He, Ruyang & Zhou, Yicheng & Chen, Siyu, 2020. "A novel learning function based on Kriging for reliability analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 198(C).
    14. Menz, Morgane & Gogu, Christian & Dubreuil, Sylvain & Bartoli, Nathalie & Morio, Jérôme, 2020. "Adaptive coupling of reduced basis modeling and Kriging based active learning methods for reliability analyses," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).
    15. Wang, Zeyu & Shafieezadeh, Abdollah, 2020. "Real-time high-fidelity reliability updating with equality information using adaptive Kriging," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 195(C).
    16. Jian, Wang & Zhili, Sun & Qiang, Yang & Rui, Li, 2017. "Two accuracy measures of the Kriging model for structural reliability analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 167(C), pages 494-505.
    17. Jiang, Chen & Qiu, Haobo & Yang, Zan & Chen, Liming & Gao, Liang & Li, Peigen, 2019. "A general failure-pursuing sampling framework for surrogate-based reliability analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 47-59.
    18. Zhang, Yu & Dong, You & Xu, Jun, 2023. "An accelerated active learning Kriging model with the distance-based subdomain and a new stopping criterion for reliability analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 231(C).
    19. Ni, Pinghe & Li, Jun & Hao, Hong & Yan, Weimin & Du, Xiuli & Zhou, Hongyuan, 2020. "Reliability analysis and design optimization of nonlinear structures," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 198(C).
    20. Zhang, Jinhao & Xiao, Mi & Gao, Liang, 2019. "An active learning reliability method combining Kriging constructed with exploration and exploitation of failure region and subset simulation," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 188(C), pages 90-102.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:216:y:2021:i:c:s095183202100466x. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/reliability-engineering-and-system-safety .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.