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Realistic estimation of human error probability through Monte Carlo thermal-hydraulic simulation

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  • Cho, Jaehyun
  • Kim, Yochan
  • Kim, Jaewhan
  • Park, Jinkyun
  • Kim, Dong-San

Abstract

Human reliability analysis (HRA) plays an important role in probabilistic safety assessment because human error probability (HEP) strongly influences not only core damage frequency in the nuclear field, for example, but also risk insight across many industries. Conventional HRA methods though use thermal-hydraulic analysis with best-estimate or conservative conditions to estimate the available time for a given operator action, thus significantly overestimating HEP. In response, this paper suggests a new method to more precisely quantify HEP using realistic thermal-hydraulic analyses with exhaustive conditions. The developed method was applied to the rapid cooldown operation in a small loss-of-coolant accident in the APR1400 nuclear power plant. As a result, it was found that conventional HRA methods currently overestimate the risk-significance of this rapid cooldown operation by a factor of six. It is expected that the new HRA method can be applied to not only the nuclear field but also other complex systems to accurately estimate system failure probabilities for specific scenarios by means of more realistic HEP.

Suggested Citation

  • Cho, Jaehyun & Kim, Yochan & Kim, Jaewhan & Park, Jinkyun & Kim, Dong-San, 2020. "Realistic estimation of human error probability through Monte Carlo thermal-hydraulic simulation," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:193:y:2020:i:c:s095183201930359x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2019.106673
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Park, Jinkyun & Jung, Wondea, 2007. "OPERA—a human performance database under simulated emergencies of nuclear power plants," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 92(4), pages 503-519.
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    Cited by:

    1. Betz, Wolfgang & Papaioannou, Iason & Straub, Daniel, 2022. "Bayesian post-processing of Monte Carlo simulation in reliability analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 227(C).
    2. Jo, Wooseok & Lee, Seung Jun, 2024. "Human reliability evaluation method covering operator action timing for dynamic probabilistic safety assessment," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 241(C).

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