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Bayesian inferences of generation and growth of corrosion defects on energy pipelines based on imperfect inspection data

Author

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  • Qin, H.
  • Zhou, W.
  • Zhang, S.

Abstract

Stochastic process-based models are developed to characterize the generation and growth of metal-loss corrosion defects on oil and gas steel pipelines. The generation of corrosion defects over time is characterized by the non-homogenous Poisson process, and the growth of depths of individual defects is modeled by the non-homogenous gamma process (NHGP). The defect generation and growth models are formulated in a hierarchical Bayesian framework, whereby the parameters of the models are evaluated from the in-line inspection (ILI) data through the Bayesian updating by accounting for the probability of detection (POD) and measurement errors associated with the ILI data. The Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation in conjunction with the data augmentation (DA) technique is employed to carry out the Bayesian updating. Numerical examples that involve simulated ILI data are used to illustrate and validate the proposed methodology.

Suggested Citation

  • Qin, H. & Zhou, W. & Zhang, S., 2015. "Bayesian inferences of generation and growth of corrosion defects on energy pipelines based on imperfect inspection data," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 144(C), pages 334-342.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:144:y:2015:i:c:p:334-342
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2015.08.007
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Dongliang Lu & Mahesh D Pandey & Wei-Chau Xie, 2013. "An efficient method for the estimation of parameters of stochastic gamma process from noisy degradation measurements," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 227(4), pages 425-433, August.
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    3. repec:aei:rpaper:30352 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Kuniewski, Sebastian P. & van der Weide, Johannes A.M. & van Noortwijk, Jan M., 2009. "Sampling inspection for the evaluation of time-dependent reliability of deteriorating systems under imperfect defect detection," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 94(9), pages 1480-1490.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

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    2. Hazra, Indranil & Pandey, Mahesh D. & Manzana, Noldainerick, 2020. "Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) method for estimating parameters of the gamma process using noisy data," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 198(C).
    3. Dao, Uyen & Sajid, Zaman & Khan, Faisal & Zhang, Yahui, 2023. "Dynamic Bayesian network model to study under-deposit corrosion," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 237(C).
    4. Dann, Markus R. & Maes, Marc A., 2018. "Stochastic corrosion growth modeling for pipelines using mass inspection data," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 180(C), pages 245-254.
    5. Mason, Paolo, 2017. "A Bayesian analysis of component life expectancy and its implications on the inspection schedule," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 87-94.
    6. Guilin Zhang & Fei Xie & Dan Wang, 2024. "Reliability assessment method for tank bottom plates based on hierarchical Bayesian corrosion growth model," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 238(1), pages 112-121, February.
    7. Sun, Xuxue & Mraied, Hesham & Cai, Wenjun & Zhang, Qiong & Liang, Guoyuan & Li, Mingyang, 2018. "Bayesian latent degradation performance modeling and quantification of corroding aluminum alloys," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 178(C), pages 84-96.
    8. Dann, Markus R. & Dann, Christoph, 2017. "Automated matching of pipeline corrosion features from in-line inspection data," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 40-50.

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