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A Bayesian analysis of component life expectancy and its implications on the inspection schedule

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  • Mason, Paolo

Abstract

A model of crack initiation and residual component life is fitted to the inspection history, inclusive of two in-service failures, of a set of gas circulator impellers at two UK power stations. The model is then used to estimate the probability of future in-service failure of each item in scenarios in which the next opportunity for inspection (i.e. detection of a developing crack) is exploited or forgone.

Suggested Citation

  • Mason, Paolo, 2017. "A Bayesian analysis of component life expectancy and its implications on the inspection schedule," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 87-94.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:161:y:2017:i:c:p:87-94
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2017.01.006
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Qin, H. & Zhou, W. & Zhang, S., 2015. "Bayesian inferences of generation and growth of corrosion defects on energy pipelines based on imperfect inspection data," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 144(C), pages 334-342.
    2. Yuan, X.-X. & Mao, D. & Pandey, M.D., 2009. "A Bayesian approach to modeling and predicting pitting flaws in steam generator tubes," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 94(11), pages 1838-1847.
    3. Mason, Paolo, 2016. "Approximate Bayesian Computation of the occurrence and size of defects in Advanced Gas-cooled nuclear Reactor boilers," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 21-25.
    4. repec:dau:papers:123456789/5724 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Jia, Xiang & Wang, Dong & Jiang, Ping & Guo, Bo, 2016. "Inference on the reliability of Weibull distribution with multiply Type-I censored data," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 171-181.
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    Cited by:

    1. Huang, Qingyu & Zeng, Wei & Liu, Jia & Zhang, Zhuo & Deng, Jian & Qiu, Zhifang & Xu, Le & Wei, Zonglan & Lu, Qi & Gong, Lanxin & Shi, Chunsen & Zhong, Xianping, 2025. "Shaping the future of nuclear reactors with digital twins: Current developments and perspectives," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 402(PA).

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