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Prediction of urban residential end-use water demands by integrating known and unknown water demand drivers at multiple scales I: Model development

Author

Listed:
  • Rathnayaka, K.
  • Malano, H.
  • Arora, M.
  • George, B.
  • Maheepala, S.
  • Nawarathna, B.

Abstract

Detailed prediction of water demand by their end-uses at multiple scales is essential to support planning of Integrated Urban Water Management, an increasingly applied approach to deal with the problem of water scarcity. This paper presents an urban residential water demand modeling framework that can predict end-use water demand at multiple scales, especially at small scales with a robust explanatory capacity. This is achieved by integrating the complex water demand dynamics of urban residential water use and their underlying variables into a single model. The model described in this study can predict shower, toilet, tap, dishwasher, clothes washer, irrigation, evaporative cooler, bath, and other uses which account for the entire household water use. The model aims to predict water demand at multiple spatial (household/cluster/suburb) and temporal scales (hourly, daily, weekly and seasonal) by considering behavioral differences triggered by factors such as seasonality and presence of people at home. The model incorporates an improved representation of spatial variability by considering behavioral differences between customer groups, and improves the capability to deal with areas with different demographic and housing characteristics. This research confirms the capacity of stochastic modeling methods to represent unexplained behavior of water consumers.

Suggested Citation

  • Rathnayaka, K. & Malano, H. & Arora, M. & George, B. & Maheepala, S. & Nawarathna, B., 2017. "Prediction of urban residential end-use water demands by integrating known and unknown water demand drivers at multiple scales I: Model development," Resources, Conservation & Recycling, Elsevier, vol. 117(PB), pages 85-92.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:recore:v:117:y:2017:i:pb:p:85-92
    DOI: 10.1016/j.resconrec.2016.11.014
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Rathnayaka, K. & Maheepala, S. & Nawarathna, B. & George, B. & Malano, H. & Arora, M. & Roberts, P., 2014. "Factors affecting the variability of household water use in Melbourne, Australia," Resources, Conservation & Recycling, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 85-94.
    2. Makki, Anas A. & Stewart, Rodney A. & Beal, Cara D. & Panuwatwanich, Kriengsak, 2015. "Novel bottom-up urban water demand forecasting model: Revealing the determinants, drivers and predictors of residential indoor end-use consumption," Resources, Conservation & Recycling, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 15-37.
    3. Liu, Ariane & Giurco, Damien & Mukheibir, Pierre, 2015. "Motivating metrics for household water-use feedback," Resources, Conservation & Recycling, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 29-46.
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    Cited by:

    1. Yuhong Shuai & Liming Yao, 2021. "Adjustable Robust Optimization for Multi-Period Water Allocation in Droughts Under Uncertainty," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(12), pages 4043-4065, September.

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