IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/phsmap/v557y2020ics0378437120304659.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Inequalities, chance and success in sport competitions: Simulations vs empirical data

Author

Listed:
  • Sobkowicz, Pawel
  • Frank, Robert H.
  • Biondo, Alessio E.
  • Pluchino, Alessandro
  • Rapisarda, Andrea

Abstract

We present a new way of estimation of the role of chance in achieving success, by comparing the empirical data from 100-m dash competitions (one of the sports disciplines with the most stringent controls of external randomness), with the results of an agent-based computer model, which assumes that success depends jointly on the intrinsic talent of the agent and on unpredictable luck. We find a small, but non-zero contribution of random luck to the performance of the best sprinters, which may serve as a lower bound for the randomness role in other, less stringently controlled competitive domains. Additionally we discuss the perception of the payoff differences among the top participants, and the role of random luck in the resulting inequality.

Suggested Citation

  • Sobkowicz, Pawel & Frank, Robert H. & Biondo, Alessio E. & Pluchino, Alessandro & Rapisarda, Andrea, 2020. "Inequalities, chance and success in sport competitions: Simulations vs empirical data," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 557(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:557:y:2020:i:c:s0378437120304659
    DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2020.124899
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378437120304659
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only. Journal offers the option of making the article available online on Science direct for a fee of $3,000
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.physa.2020.124899?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Roland Bénabou & Jean Tirole, 2006. "Belief in a Just World and Redistributive Politics," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 121(2), pages 699-746.
    2. Yian Yin & Yang Wang & James A. Evans & Dashun Wang, 2019. "Quantifying the dynamics of failure across science, startups and security," Nature, Nature, vol. 575(7781), pages 190-194, November.
    3. Charles I. Jones, 2015. "Pareto and Piketty: The Macroeconomics of Top Income and Wealth Inequality," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 29(1), pages 29-46, Winter.
    4. Bowbrick, Peter, 1983. "The Economics of Superstars: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(3), pages 459-459, June.
    5. Rosen, Sherwin, 1981. "The Economics of Superstars," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(5), pages 845-858, December.
    6. Filippo Radicchi, 2012. "Universality, Limits and Predictability of Gold-Medal Performances at the Olympic Games," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 7(7), pages 1-8, July.
    7. Robert H. Frank, 2016. "Success and Luck: Good Fortune and the Myth of Meritocracy," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 10663.
    8. Rosen, Sherwin, 1983. "The Economics of Superstars: Reply," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(3), pages 460-462, June.
    9. Alessandro Pluchino & Alessio Emanuele Biondo & Andrea Rapisarda, 2018. "Talent Versus Luck: The Role Of Randomness In Success And Failure," Advances in Complex Systems (ACS), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 21(03n04), pages 1-31, May.
    10. De Vany, Arthur S. & Walls, W. David, 2004. "Motion picture profit, the stable Paretian hypothesis, and the curse of the superstar," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 1035-1057, March.
    11. Arthur De Vany & W. Walls, 1999. "Uncertainty in the Movie Industry: Does Star Power Reduce the Terror of the Box Office?," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer;The Association for Cultural Economics International, vol. 23(4), pages 285-318, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Zappalà, Chiara & Biondo, Alessio Emanuele & Pluchino, Alessandro & Rapisarda, Andrea, 2023. "The paradox of talent: How chance affects success in tennis tournaments," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 176(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Angela (Xia) Liu & Tridib Mazumdar & Bo Li, 2015. "Counterfactual Decomposition of Movie Star Effects with Star Selection," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 61(7), pages 1704-1721, July.
    2. W. Walls, 2010. "Superstars and heavy tails in recorded entertainment: empirical analysis of the market for DVDs," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer;The Association for Cultural Economics International, vol. 34(4), pages 261-279, November.
    3. Ana Suárez-Vázquez, 2011. "Critic power or star power? The influence of hallmarks of quality of motion pictures: an experimental approach," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer;The Association for Cultural Economics International, vol. 35(2), pages 119-135, May.
    4. Selvaretnam, Geethanjali & Yang, Jen-Yuan, 2015. "Factors Affecting the Financial Success of Motion Pictures: What is the Role of Star Power?," 2007 Annual Meeting, July 29-August 1, 2007, Portland, Oregon TN 2015-19, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    5. Jordi McKenzie, 2010. "How do theatrical box office revenues affect DVD retail sales? Australian empirical evidence," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer;The Association for Cultural Economics International, vol. 34(3), pages 159-179, August.
    6. Selvaretnam, Geethanjali & Yang, Jen-Yuan, 2015. "Factors Affecting the Financial Success of Motion Pictures: What is the Role of Star Power?," SIRE Discussion Papers 2015-19, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
    7. Allègre Hadida, 2010. "Commercial success and artistic recognition of motion picture projects," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer;The Association for Cultural Economics International, vol. 34(1), pages 45-80, February.
    8. Sudip Bhattacharjee & Ram D. Gopal & Kaveepan Lertwachara & James R. Marsden & Rahul Telang, 2007. "The Effect of Digital Sharing Technologies on Music Markets: A Survival Analysis of Albums on Ranking Charts," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 53(9), pages 1359-1374, September.
    9. Carlos Casacuberta & Ianina Rossi & Máximo Rossi, 2003. "El arte y el éxito: un matrimonio incómodo," Documentos de Trabajo (working papers) 0303, Department of Economics - dECON.
    10. Frederick Derrick & Nancy Williams & Charles Scott, 2014. "A two-stage proxy variable approach to estimating movie box office receipts," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer;The Association for Cultural Economics International, vol. 38(2), pages 173-189, May.
    11. Gaenssle Sophia & Budzinski Oliver & Astakhova Daria, 2018. "Conquering the Box Office: Factors Influencing Success of International Movies in Russia," Review of Network Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 17(4), pages 245-266, December.
    12. Aloys Prinz, 2017. "Rankings as coordination games: the Dutch Top 2000 pop song ranking," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer;The Association for Cultural Economics International, vol. 41(4), pages 379-401, November.
    13. Perri, Timothy, 2014. "Substitution and superstars," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 125(2), pages 240-242.
    14. Hofmann, Julian & Clement, Michel & Völckner, Franziska & Hennig-Thurau, Thorsten, 2017. "Empirical generalizations on the impact of stars on the economic success of movies," International Journal of Research in Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 442-461.
    15. Fei Peng & Lili Kang & Sajid Anwar & Xue Li, 2019. "Star power and box office revenues: evidence from China," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer;The Association for Cultural Economics International, vol. 43(2), pages 247-278, June.
    16. Beck, Jonathan, 2008. "Diderot´s rule," Discussion Papers, Research Unit: Competition and Innovation SP II 2008-13, WZB Berlin Social Science Center.
    17. Wen-jhan Jane & Wei-peng Chen & Yuan-lin Hsu, 2015. "The impact of deregulation on the movie box office after Taiwan’s entry into the WTO: the difference-in-differences estimation," Eurasian Business Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 5(2), pages 289-308, December.
    18. Darlene C Chisholm, 2011. "Motion Pictures," Chapters, in: Ruth Towse (ed.), A Handbook of Cultural Economics, Second Edition, chapter 39, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    19. Frick, Bernd, 2012. "Die Entlohnung von Fußball-Profis: Ist die vielfach kritisierte 'Gehaltsexplosion' ökonomisch erklärbar?," Edition HWWI: Chapters, in: Büch, Martin-Peter & Maennig, Wolfgang & Schulke, Hans-Jürgen (ed.), Sport und Sportgroßveranstaltungen in Europa - zwischen Zentralstaat und Regionen, volume 4, pages 79-110, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI).
    20. Marcel Preuss & Germán Reyes & Jason Somerville & Joy Wu, 2023. "Inequality of Opportunity and Income Redistribution," CEDLAS, Working Papers 0309, CEDLAS, Universidad Nacional de La Plata.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:557:y:2020:i:c:s0378437120304659. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/physica-a-statistical-mechpplications/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.