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Impact of time delay on the dynamics of SEIR epidemic model using cellular automata

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  • Sharma, Natasha
  • Gupta, Arvind Kumar

Abstract

The delay of an infectious disease is significant when aiming to predict its strength and spreading patterns. In this paper the SEIR ​(susceptible–exposed–infected–recovered) epidemic spread with time delay is analyzed through a two-dimensional cellular automata model. The time delay corresponding to the infectious span, predominantly, includes death during the latency period in due course of infection. The advancement of whole system is described by SEIR transition function complemented with crucial factors like inhomogeneous population distribution, birth and disease independent mortality. Moreover, to reflect more realistic population dynamics some stochastic parameters like population movement and connections at local level are also considered. The existence and stability of disease free equilibrium is investigated. Two prime behavioral patterns of disease dynamics is found depending on delay. The critical value of delay, beyond which there are notable variations in spread patterns, is computed. The influence of important parameters affecting the disease dynamics on basic reproduction number is also examined. The results obtained show that delay plays an affirmative role to control disease progression in an infected host.

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  • Sharma, Natasha & Gupta, Arvind Kumar, 2017. "Impact of time delay on the dynamics of SEIR epidemic model using cellular automata," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 471(C), pages 114-125.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:471:y:2017:i:c:p:114-125
    DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2016.12.010
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    3. Sharma, Natasha & Verma, Atul Kumar & Gupta, Arvind Kumar, 2021. "Spatial network based model forecasting transmission and control of COVID-19," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 581(C).
    4. Roy, Souvik, 2019. "A study on delay-sensitive cellular automata," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 515(C), pages 600-616.
    5. Zhang, Zizhen & Rahman, Ghaus ur & Gómez-Aguilar, J.F. & Torres-Jiménez, J., 2022. "Dynamical aspects of a delayed epidemic model with subdivision of susceptible population and control strategies," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    6. Hernández Guillén, J.D. & Martín del Rey, A. & Hernández Encinas, L., 2017. "Study of the stability of a SEIRS model for computer worm propagation," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 479(C), pages 411-421.
    7. Liu, Qun & Jiang, Daqing & Hayat, Tasawar & Alsaedi, Ahmed, 2018. "Dynamics of a stochastic tuberculosis model with antibiotic resistance," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 223-230.
    8. Hong Zhang & Shigen Shen & Qiying Cao & Xiaojun Wu & Shaofeng Liu, 2020. "Modeling and analyzing malware diffusion in wireless sensor networks based on cellular automaton," International Journal of Distributed Sensor Networks, , vol. 16(11), pages 15501477209, November.
    9. Gabrick, Enrique C. & Protachevicz, Paulo R. & Batista, Antonio M. & Iarosz, Kelly C. & de Souza, Silvio L.T. & Almeida, Alexandre C.L. & Szezech, José D. & Mugnaine, Michele & Caldas, Iberê L., 2022. "Effect of two vaccine doses in the SEIR epidemic model using a stochastic cellular automaton," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 597(C).

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