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Optimal hedging via large deviation

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  • Stutzer, Michael

Abstract

The criterion of minimizing the cumulative hedged returns’ probability of underperforming a benchmark provides a framework for evaluating short-term hedges that are rolled over to produce longer-term hedges. Large deviations theory can be used to either parametrically or nonparametrically estimate underperformance probabilities for cumulative hedged returns produced by roll-overs, providing a straightforward way to find optimal hedge ratios. Optimal hedges using soybean futures are constructed to illustrate the procedures, and their relationship to the popular hedging criteria that are motivated by normality.

Suggested Citation

  • Stutzer, Michael, 2013. "Optimal hedging via large deviation," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(15), pages 3177-3182.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:392:y:2013:i:15:p:3177-3182
    DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2013.03.022
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Dilip B. Madan & Peter P. Carr & Eric C. Chang, 1998. "The Variance Gamma Process and Option Pricing," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 2(1), pages 79-105.
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    3. Didier Sornette, 1998. "Large deviations and portfolio optimization," Papers cond-mat/9802059, arXiv.org, revised Jun 1998.
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    5. Chris Brooks & Alešs Černý & Joëlle Miffre, 2012. "Optimal hedging with higher moments," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(10), pages 909-944, October.
    6. Yuichi Kitamura & Michael Stutzer, 1997. "An Information-Theoretic Alternative to Generalized Method of Moments Estimation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(4), pages 861-874, July.
    7. F. Douglas Foster & Charles H. Whiteman, 2002. "Bayesian Cross Hedging: An Example From the Soybean Market," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 27(2), pages 95-122, December.
    8. Sornette, Didier, 1998. "Large deviations and portfolio optimization," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 256(1), pages 251-283.
    9. Duffy, Ken & Lobunets, Olena & Suhov, Yuri, 2007. "Loss aversion, large deviation preferences and optimal portfolio weights for some classes of return processes," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 378(2), pages 408-422.
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