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The overnight effect on the Taiwan stock market

  • Tsai, Kuo-Ting
  • Lih, Jiann-Shing
  • Ko, Jing-Yuan
Registered author(s):

    This study examines statistical regularities among three components of stocks and indices: daytime (trading hour) return, overnight (off-hour session) return, and total (close-to-close) return. Owing to the fact that the Taiwan Stock Exchange (TWSE) has the longest non-trading periods among major markets, the TWSE is selected to explore the correlation among the three components and compare it with major markets such as the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation (NASDAQ). Analysis results indicate a negative cross correlation between the sign of daytime return and the sign of overnight return; possibly explaining why most stocks feature a negative cross correlation between daytime return and overnight return [F. Wang, S.-J. Shieh, S. Havlin, H.E. Stanley, Statistical analysis of the overnight and daytime return, Phys. Rev. E 79 (2009) 056109]. Additionally, the cross correlation between the magnitude of returns is analyzed. According to those results, a larger magnitude of overnight return implies a higher probability that the sign of the following daytime return is the opposite of the sign of overnight return. Namely, the predictability of daytime return might be improved when a stock undergoes a large magnitude of overnight return. Furthermore, the cross correlations of 29 indices of worldwide markets are discussed.

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    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378437112006723
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    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications.

    Volume (Year): 391 (2012)
    Issue (Month): 24 ()
    Pages: 6497-6505

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:391:y:2012:i:24:p:6497-6505
    Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/physica-a-statistical-mechpplications/

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    1. Ronen, Tavy, 1998. "Trading structure and overnight information: A natural experiment from the Tel-Aviv Stock Exchange," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(5), pages 489-512, May.
    2. Woo-Sung Jung & Okyu Kwon & Fengzhong Wang & Taisei Kaizoji & Hie-Tae Moon & H. Eugene Stanley, 2007. "Group dynamics of the Japanese market," Papers 0708.0562, arXiv.org.
    3. Tsutsui, Yoshiro, 2003. "Stock prices in Japan rise at night," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 391-406, December.
    4. Wang, Steven Shuye & Meng Rui, Oliver & Firth, Michael, 2002. "Return and volatility behavior of dually-traded stocks: the case of Hong Kong," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 265-293, April.
    5. Barclay, Michael J. & Hendershott, Terrence, 2008. "A comparison of trading and non-trading mechanisms for price discovery," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(5), pages 839-849, December.
    6. Stanley, H. Eugene & Plerou, Vasiliki & Gabaix, Xavier, 2008. "A statistical physics view of financial fluctuations: Evidence for scaling and universality," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 387(15), pages 3967-3981.
    7. Fengzhong Wang & Kazuko Yamasaki & Shlomo Havlin & H. Eugene Stanley, 2005. "Scaling and memory of intraday volatility return intervals in stock market," Papers physics/0511101, arXiv.org.
    8. Deb, Saikat Sovan & Kalev, Petko S. & Marisetty, Vijaya B., 2010. "Are price limits really bad for equity markets?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(10), pages 2462-2471, October.
    9. Chang, Rosita P. & Rhee, S. Ghon & Stone, Gregory R. & Tang, Ning, 2008. "How does the call market method affect price efficiency? Evidence from the Singapore Stock Market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(10), pages 2205-2219, October.
    10. Fengzhong Wang & Shwu-Jane Shieh & Shlomo Havlin & H. Eugene Stanley, 2009. "Statistical analysis of the overnight and daytime return," Papers 0903.0993, arXiv.org.
    11. Duan, Wen-Qi & Stanley, H. Eugene, 2011. "Cross-correlation and the predictability of financial return series," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 390(2), pages 290-296.
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