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Free float and stochastic volatility: the experience of a small open economy

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  • Selçuk, Faruk

Abstract

Following a dramatic collapse of a fixed exchange rate based inflation stabilization program, Turkey moved into a free floating exchange rate system in February 2001. In this paper, an asymmetric stochastic volatility model of the foreign exchange rate in Turkey is estimated for the floating period. It is shown that there is a positive relation between the exchange return and its volatility. Particularly, an increase in the return at time t results in an increase in volatility at time t+1. However, the effect is asymmetric: a decrease in the exchange rate return at time t causes a relatively less decrease in volatility at time t+1. The results imply that a central bank with a volatility smoothing policy would be biased in viewing the shocks to the exchange rate in favor of appreciation. The bias would increase if the bank is also following an inflation targeting policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Selçuk, Faruk, 2004. "Free float and stochastic volatility: the experience of a small open economy," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 342(3), pages 693-700.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:342:y:2004:i:3:p:693-700
    DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2004.05.085
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Kasman, Adnan & Ayhan, Duygu, 2008. "Foreign exchange reserves and exchange rates in Turkey: Structural breaks, unit roots and cointegration," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 83-92, January.
    2. Wei, Yu, 2012. "Forecasting volatility of fuel oil futures in China: GARCH-type, SV or realized volatility models?," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 391(22), pages 5546-5556.

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