The foundations of statistics with black swans
We extend the foundation of statistics to integrate rare events that are potentially catastrophic, called black swans.These include natural hazards, regime change in complex systems, market crashes, catastrophic climate change and major episodes of species extinction. Classic statistics and physics treat such events as 'outliers' and often disregard them. We propose a new axiomatization of subjective probability requiring equal treatment for rare and frequent events, and characterize the likelihoods or subjective probabilities that the axioms imply. These coincide with countably additive measures and yield normal distributions when the sample has no black swans. When the sample includes black swans, the new likelihoods are represented by a combination of countable and finitely additive measures with both parts present. The axioms were introduced in  and ; they extend the axiomatic foundations of Savage (1954), Villegas (1964) and Arrow (1971) and they are valid for bounded and unbounded samples (Chichilnisky, 1996b). The finitely additive measures assign more weight to rare events than do standard distributions and in that sense explain the persistent observation of power laws and 'heavy tails' that eludes classic theory.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Graciela Chichilnisky & Ho-Mou Wu, 2006.
"General equilibrium with endogenous uncertainty and default,"
0506-29, Columbia University, Department of Economics.
- Chichilnisky, Graciela & Wu, Ho-Mou, 2006. "General equilibrium with endogenous uncertainty and default," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(4-5), pages 499-524, August.
- Graciela Chichilnisky, 1996.
"An axiomatic approach to sustainable development,"
Social Choice and Welfare,
Springer, vol. 13(2), pages 231-257, April.
- Chichilnisky, Graciela, 2000. "An axiomatic approach to choice under uncertainty with catastrophic risks," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 221-231, July.
- Olivier Chanel & Graciela Chichilnisky, 2009. "The influence of fear in decisions: Experimental evidence," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 39(3), pages 271-298, December.
- Chichilnisky, G. & Heal, G.M., 1995.
"Social Choice with Infinite Populations: Construction of a Rule and Impossibility Results,"
95-19, Columbia - Graduate School of Business.
- Graciela Chichilnisky & Geoffrey Heal, 1997. "Social choice with infinite populations: construction of a rule and impossibility results," Social Choice and Welfare, Springer, vol. 14(2), pages 303-318.
- Chichilnisky, Graciela, 2009. "The Limits Of Econometrics: Nonparametric Estimation In Hilbert Spaces," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(04), pages 1070-1086, August.
- Chichilnisky, Graciela, 2009. "The topology of fear," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(12), pages 807-816, December.
- F J Anscombe & R J Aumann, 2000. "A Definition of Subjective Probability," Levine's Working Paper Archive 7591, David K. Levine.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:matsoc:v:59:y:2010:i:2:p:184-192. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.