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The evolutionary path of automobility in BRICS countries

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  • Seum, Stefan
  • Schulz, Angelika
  • Kuhnimhof, Tobias

Abstract

Projections indicate that global transport may more than double by 2050. Future car stock and use are of paramount importance for drafting policy measures and for assessing emerging technology developments. This paper uses a unique forecasting approach combining quantitative data and qualitative expert judgements. Based on the historic development of vehicle kilometers traveled (VKT) in four OECD countries, the approach assesses potential future development paths for BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) and derives VKT saturation levels for these. For this purpose, we investigated eight factors with influence on car ownership and car use. A group of experts established factor values for the BRICS countries and compared these to the factor values in the OECD countries. Subsequently, we linked the factor values to levels of car use. Among the BRICS countries, we expect the lowest VKT saturation levels for India and China, mainly but not exclusively due to their spatial structures and transport policies. Spatial structures, socio-economic legacies and policies, among other factors, are leading to higher expected VKT saturation levels in Brazil, Russia and South Africa. Those countries also face challenges to establish alternatives to the private car.

Suggested Citation

  • Seum, Stefan & Schulz, Angelika & Kuhnimhof, Tobias, 2020. "The evolutionary path of automobility in BRICS countries," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jotrge:v:85:y:2020:i:c:s0966692319311330
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2020.102739
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    1. Anjula Gurtoo & Colin Williams (ed.), 2015. "Developing Country Perspectives on Public Service Delivery," Springer Books, Springer, edition 127, number 978-81-322-2160-9, December.
    2. Joyce Dargay & Dermot Gately & Martin Sommer, 2007. "Vehicle Ownership and Income Growth, Worldwide: 1960-2030," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 143-170.
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