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Collaborative planning and prediction: Does group discussion affect optimistic biases in time estimation?

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  • Buehler, Roger
  • Messervey, Deanna
  • Griffin, Dale

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  • Buehler, Roger & Messervey, Deanna & Griffin, Dale, 2005. "Collaborative planning and prediction: Does group discussion affect optimistic biases in time estimation?," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 97(1), pages 47-63, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jobhdp:v:97:y:2005:i:1:p:47-63
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    1. Terry Connolly & Doug Dean, 1997. "Decomposed Versus Holistic Estimates of Effort Required for Software Writing Tasks," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 43(7), pages 1029-1045, July.
    2. Argote, Linda & Seabright, Mark A. & Dyer, Linda, 1986. "Individual versus group use of base-rate and individuating information," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 65-75, August.
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    4. Argote, Linda & Devadas, Rukmini & Melone, Nancy, 1990. "The base-rate fallacy: Contrasting processes and outcomes of group and individual judgment," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 296-310, August.
    5. Henry, Rebecca A. & Sniezek, Janet A., 1993. "Situational Factors Affecting Judgments of Future Performance," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 104-132, February.
    6. Buehler, Roger & Griffin, Dale, 2003. "Planning, personality, and prediction: The role of future focus in optimistic time predictions," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 92(1-2), pages 80-90.
    7. Daniel Kahneman & Dan Lovallo, 1993. "Timid Choices and Bold Forecasts: A Cognitive Perspective on Risk Taking," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 39(1), pages 17-31, January.
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    9. Henry, Rebecca A., 1995. "Improving Group Judgment Accuracy: Information Sharing and Determining the Best Member," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 190-197, May.
    10. Ono, Kaoru & Davis, James H., 1988. "Individual judgment and group interaction: A variable perspective approach," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 211-232, April.
    11. Heath, Chip & Gonzalez, Rich, 1995. "Interaction with Others Increases Decision Confidence but Not Decision Quality: Evidence against Information Collection Views of Interactive Decision Making," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 61(3), pages 305-326, March.
    12. Robert T. Clemen & Robert L. Winkler, 1993. "Aggregating Point Estimates: A Flexible Modeling Approach," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 39(4), pages 501-515, April.
    13. Henry, Rebecca A. & Kmet, Jill & Desrosiers, Erica & Landa, Alyson, 2002. "Examining the Impact of Interpersonal Cohesiveness on Group Accuracy Interventions: The Importance of Matching versus Buffering," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 25-43, January.
    14. Reagan-Cirincione, Patricia, 1994. "Improving the Accuracy of Group Judgment: A Process Intervention Combining Group Facilitation, Social Judgment Analysis, and Information Technology," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 246-270, May.
    15. Sniezek, Janet A., 1992. "Groups under uncertainty: An examination of confidence in group decision making," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 124-155, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Don A. Moore & Samuel A. Swift & Angela Minster & Barbara Mellers & Lyle Ungar & Philip Tetlock & Heather H. J. Yang & Elizabeth R. Tenney, 2017. "Confidence Calibration in a Multiyear Geopolitical Forecasting Competition," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 63(11), pages 3552-3565, November.
    2. Timofei Nestik, 2018. "The Psychological Aspects of Corporate Foresight," Foresight and STI Governance (Foresight-Russia till No. 3/2015), National Research University Higher School of Economics, vol. 12(2), pages 78-90.
    3. Staats, Bradley R. & Milkman, Katherine L. & Fox, Craig R., 2012. "The team scaling fallacy: Underestimating the declining efficiency of larger teams," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 118(2), pages 132-142.
    4. Gillet, Joris & Schram, Arthur & Sonnemans, Joep, 2009. "The tragedy of the commons revisited: The importance of group decision-making," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(5-6), pages 785-797, June.
    5. Moore, Don A., 2007. "Not so above average after all: When people believe they are worse than average and its implications for theories of bias in social comparison," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 102(1), pages 42-58, January.
    6. Lawrence, Michael & Goodwin, Paul & O'Connor, Marcus & Onkal, Dilek, 2006. "Judgmental forecasting: A review of progress over the last 25 years," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 493-518.
    7. Buehler, Roger & Peetz, Johanna & Griffin, Dale, 2010. "Finishing on time: When do predictions influence completion times?," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 111(1), pages 23-32, January.

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