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Nonparametric tests for change-point detection à la Gombay and Horváth

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  • Holmes, Mark
  • Kojadinovic, Ivan
  • Quessy, Jean-François

Abstract

The nonparametric test for change-point detection proposed by Gombay and Horváth is revisited and extended in the broader setting of empirical process theory. The resulting testing procedure for potentially multivariate observations is based on a sequential generalization of the functional multiplier central limit theorem and on modifications of Gombay and Horváth’s seminal approach that appears to improve the finite-sample behavior of the tests. A large number of candidate test statistics based on processes indexed by lower-left orthants and half-spaces are considered and their performance is studied through extensive Monte Carlo experiments involving univariate, bivariate and trivariate data sets. Finally, practical recommendations are provided and the tests are illustrated on trivariate hydrological data.

Suggested Citation

  • Holmes, Mark & Kojadinovic, Ivan & Quessy, Jean-François, 2013. "Nonparametric tests for change-point detection à la Gombay and Horváth," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 16-32.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jmvana:v:115:y:2013:i:c:p:16-32
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jmva.2012.10.004
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Inoue, Atsushi, 2001. "Testing For Distributional Change In Time Series," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 17(1), pages 156-187, February.
    2. Atsushi Inoue, "undated". "Testing Change in Time Series," Computing in Economics and Finance 1997 7, Society for Computational Economics.
    3. Antoch, Jaromír & Husková, Marie, 2001. "Permutation tests in change point analysis," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 37-46, May.
    4. Horváth, Lajos & Shao, Qi-Man, 2007. "Limit theorems for permutations of empirical processes with applications to change point analysis," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 117(12), pages 1870-1888, December.
    5. Dietmar Ferger, 1994. "On the power of nonparametric changepoint-tests," Metrika: International Journal for Theoretical and Applied Statistics, Springer, vol. 41(1), pages 277-292, December.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Bucchia, Béatrice & Wendler, Martin, 2017. "Change-point detection and bootstrap for Hilbert space valued random fields," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 155(C), pages 344-368.
    3. Nasri, Bouchra R. & Rémillard, Bruno N. & Bahraoui, Tarik, 2022. "Change-point problems for multivariate time series using pseudo-observations," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 187(C).
    4. Emura, Takeshi & Lai, Ching-Chieh & Sun, Li-Hsien, 2023. "Change point estimation under a copula-based Markov chain model for binomial time series," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 120-137.
    5. Fabrizio Durante & Enrico Foscolo & Alex Weissensteiner, 2017. "Dependence between Stock Returns of Italian Banks and the Sovereign Risk," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 5(2), pages 1-14, June.
    6. Jean-François Quessy, 2019. "Consistent nonparametric tests for detecting gradual changes in the marginals and the copula of multivariate time series," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 60(3), pages 717-746, June.
    7. Michael Messer, 2022. "Bivariate change point detection: Joint detection of changes in expectation and variance," Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, Danish Society for Theoretical Statistics;Finnish Statistical Society;Norwegian Statistical Association;Swedish Statistical Association, vol. 49(2), pages 886-916, June.
    8. Ahmadi, Seyed Saeed & Li, Johnny Siu-Hang, 2014. "Coherent mortality forecasting with generalized linear models: A modified time-transformation approach," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 194-221.
    9. Bucher, Axel & Kojadinovic, Ivan, 2013. "A dependent multiplier bootstrap for the sequential empirical copula process under strong mixing," LIDAM Discussion Papers ISBA 2013029, Université catholique de Louvain, Institute of Statistics, Biostatistics and Actuarial Sciences (ISBA).
    10. Henry Penikas, 2016. "Copula-Based Univariate Time Series Structural Shift Identification Test," Papers 1609.05056, arXiv.org.
    11. Rongrong Li & Lihua Xiong & Cong Jiang & Wenbin Li & Chengkai Liu, 2023. "Quantifying multivariate flood risk under nonstationary condition," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 116(1), pages 1161-1187, March.
    12. Bücher, Axel & Kojadinovic, Ivan & Rohmer, Tom & Segers, Johan, 2014. "Detecting changes in cross-sectional dependence in multivariate time series," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 111-128.
    13. Rohmer, Tom, 2016. "Some results on change-point detection in cross-sectional dependence of multivariate data with changes in marginal distributions," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 45-54.
    14. Kojadinovic, Ivan & Rohmer, Tom & Segers, Johan, 2013. "Detecting changes in cross-sectional dependence in multivariate time series," LIDAM Discussion Papers ISBA 2013051, Université catholique de Louvain, Institute of Statistics, Biostatistics and Actuarial Sciences (ISBA).
    15. Zdeněk Hlávka & Marie Hušková & Simos G. Meintanis, 2020. "Change-point methods for multivariate time-series: paired vectorial observations," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 61(4), pages 1351-1383, August.

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