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Forecasting daily exchange rate volatility using intraday returns

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  • Martens, Martin

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  • Martens, Martin, 2001. "Forecasting daily exchange rate volatility using intraday returns," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 1-23, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:20:y:2001:i:1:p:1-23
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    1. Drost, Feike C & Nijman, Theo E, 1993. "Temporal Aggregation of GARCH Processes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 909-927, July.
    2. Parkinson, Michael, 1980. "The Extreme Value Method for Estimating the Variance of the Rate of Return," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 53(1), pages 61-65, January.
    3. Nelson, Daniel B., 1990. "ARCH models as diffusion approximations," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 7-38.
    4. Garman, Mark B & Klass, Michael J, 1980. "On the Estimation of Security Price Volatilities from Historical Data," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 53(1), pages 67-78, January.
    5. Bessembinder, Hendrik & Seguin, Paul J., 1993. "Price Volatility, Trading Volume, and Market Depth: Evidence from Futures Markets," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 28(01), pages 21-39, March.
    6. Nelson, Daniel B. & Foster, Dean P., 1995. "Filtering and forecasting with misspecified ARCH models II : Making the right forecast with the wrong model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 67(2), pages 303-335, June.
    7. Canina, Linda & Figlewski, Stephen, 1993. "The Informational Content of Implied Volatility," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(3), pages 659-681.
    8. Nelson, Daniel B., 1992. "Filtering and forecasting with misspecified ARCH models I : Getting the right variance with the wrong model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 61-90.
    9. Taylor, Stephen J. & Xu, Xinzhong, 1997. "The incremental volatility information in one million foreign exchange quotations," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 4(4), pages 317-340, December.
    10. Drost, Feike C. & Werker, Bas J. M., 1996. "Closing the GARCH gap: Continuous time GARCH modeling," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 31-57, September.
    11. Taylor, Stephen J., 1987. "Forecasting the volatility of currency exchange rates," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 159-170.
    12. Lumsdaine, Robin L, 1995. "Finite-Sample Properties of the Maximum Likelihood Estimator in GARCH(1,1) and IGARCH(1,1) Models: A Monte Carlo Investigation," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(1), pages 1-10, January.
    13. Bollerslev, Tim & Domowitz, Ian, 1993. " Trading Patterns and Prices in the Interbank Foreign Exchange Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(4), pages 1421-1443, September.
    14. Beckers, Stan, 1983. "Variances of Security Price Returns Based on High, Low, and Closing Prices," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 56(1), pages 97-112, January.
    15. Laux, Paul A. & Ng, Lilian K., 1993. "The sources of GARCH: empirical evidence from an intraday returns model incorporating systematic and unique risks," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(5), pages 543-560, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jui-Cheng Hung & Ren-Xi Ni & Matthew C. Chang, 2009. "The Information Contents of VIX Index and Range-based Volatility on Volatility Forecasting Performance of S&P 500," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 29(4), pages 2592-2604.
    2. Chortareas, Georgios & Jiang, Ying & Nankervis, John. C., 2011. "Forecasting exchange rate volatility using high-frequency data: Is the euro different?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 1089-1107, October.
    3. Ané, Thierry & Ureche-Rangau, Loredana & Gambet, Jean-Benoît & Bouverot, Julien, 2008. "Robust outlier detection for Asia-Pacific stock index returns," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 326-343, October.
    4. Wong, Woon K. & Tan, Dijun & Tian, Yixiang, 2009. "Informed trading and liquidity in the Shanghai Stock Exchange," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 18(1-2), pages 66-73, March.
    5. Isao Ishida & Toshiaki Watanabe, 2009. "Modeling and Forecasting the Volatility of the Nikkei 225 Realized Volatility Using the ARFIMA-GARCH Model," Global COE Hi-Stat Discussion Paper Series gd08-032, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    6. Koopman, Siem Jan & Jungbacker, Borus & Hol, Eugenie, 2005. "Forecasting daily variability of the S&P 100 stock index using historical, realised and implied volatility measurements," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 445-475, June.
    7. Bollerslev, Tim & Zhou, Hao, 2002. "Estimating stochastic volatility diffusion using conditional moments of integrated volatility," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 109(1), pages 33-65, July.
    8. Giot, Pierre & Laurent, Sebastien, 2004. "Modelling daily Value-at-Risk using realized volatility and ARCH type models," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 379-398, June.
    9. Chu, Carlin C.F. & Lam, K.P., 2011. "Modeling intraday volatility: A new consideration," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 388-418, July.
    10. Michael McAleer & Marcelo Medeiros, 2008. "Realized Volatility: A Review," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(1-3), pages 10-45.
    11. Barucci, Emilio & Reno, Roberto, 2002. "On measuring volatility and the GARCH forecasting performance," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 183-200, July.
    12. Marcelo C. Carvalho & Marco Aurélio S. Freire & Marcelo Cunha Medeiros & Leonardo R. Souza, 2006. "Modeling and Forecasting the Volatility of Brazilian Asset Returns: a Realized Variance Approach," Brazilian Review of Finance, Brazilian Society of Finance, vol. 4(1), pages 55-77.
    13. Eugenie Hol & Siem Jan Koopman, 2002. "Stock Index Volatility Forecasting with High Frequency Data," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 02-068/4, Tinbergen Institute.
    14. Lien, Donald & Yang, Li, 2005. "Availability and settlement of individual stock futures and options expiration-day effects: evidence from high-frequency data," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(4-5), pages 730-747, September.
    15. Mendes, Beatriz Vaz de Melo & Accioly, Victor Bello, 2012. "On the dependence structure of realized volatilities," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 1-9.
    16. Matei, Marius, 2011. "Non-Linear Volatility Modeling of Economic and Financial Time Series Using High Frequency Data," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 116-141, June.
    17. Bertrand B. Maillet & Jean-Philippe R. M�decin, 2010. "Extreme Volatilities, Financial Crises and L-moment Estimations of Tail-indexes," Working Papers 2010_10, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    18. Ying Jiang & Shamim Ahmed & Xiaoquan Liu, 2017. "Volatility forecasting in the Chinese commodity futures market with intraday data," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 48(4), pages 1123-1173, May.
    19. Anagnostidis, Panagiotis & Emmanouilides, Christos J., 2015. "Nonlinearity in high-frequency stock returns: Evidence from the Athens Stock Exchange," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 421(C), pages 473-487.
    20. Ané, Thierry & Métais, Carole, 2009. "The distribution of realized variances: Marginal behaviors, asymmetric dependence and contagion effects," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 134-150, June.
    21. Alan E. H. Speight & David G. McMillan, 2004. "Daily volatility forecasts: reassessing the performance of GARCH models," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(6), pages 449-460.

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