Effectual versus predictive logics in entrepreneurial decision making: Differences between experts and novices: Does experience in starting new ventures change the way entrepreneurs think? Perhaps, but for now, "Caution" is essential

The preceding paper by Wiltbank et al. reports that highly successful and experienced entrepreneurs rely, to a greater degree than novices (MBA students), on effectual logic. This finding raises a key question: Why do these two groups differ? The authors imply that this difference is the result of entrepreneurs' experience in starting new ventures. This is a reasonable suggestion but unfortunately, there are important reasons for viewing it with caution. The most crucial of these involve serious threats to internal validity arising from the use of a post-test only design with nonequivalent groups [see Cook, T.D., Campbell, D.T. (1979). Quasi-experimentation design and analysis issues for field settings. Boston: Houghton Mifflin]. Such designs are helpful, but do not allow for firm conclusions regarding causal relationships between variables. This is an important point for entrepreneurship researchers who, because of practical constraints, must often adopt such designs. Additional difficulties with respect to interpreting the obtained results derive from the fact that although the study is cast as being closely related to research on expert performance, several key links to that extensive literature remain unclear. Overall, however, it is a creative contribution, and paves the way for additional informative research.