IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/intfor/v35y2019i4p1432-1438.html

An ensemble approach to GEFCom2017 probabilistic load forecasting

Author

Listed:
  • Landgraf, Andrew J.

Abstract

We present an ensembling approach to medium-term probabilistic load forecasting which ranked second out of 73 competitors in the defined data track of the GEFCom2017 qualifying match. In addition to being accurate, the ensemble method is highly scalable, due to the fact that it had to be applied to nine quantiles in ten zones and for six rounds. Candidate forecasts were generated using random settings for input data, covariates, and learning algorithms. The best candidate forecasts were averaged to create the final forecast, with the number of candidate forecasts being chosen based on their accuracy in similar validation periods.

Suggested Citation

  • Landgraf, Andrew J., 2019. "An ensemble approach to GEFCom2017 probabilistic load forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1432-1438.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:35:y:2019:i:4:p:1432-1438
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2019.02.003
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169207019300202
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2019.02.003?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hong, Tao & Xie, Jingrui & Black, Jonathan, 2019. "Global energy forecasting competition 2017: Hierarchical probabilistic load forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1389-1399.
    2. Koenker,Roger, 2005. "Quantile Regression," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521845731, January.
    3. Nagy, Gábor I. & Barta, Gergő & Kazi, Sándor & Borbély, Gyula & Simon, Gábor, 2016. "GEFCom2014: Probabilistic solar and wind power forecasting using a generalized additive tree ensemble approach," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 1087-1093.
    4. Haben, Stephen & Giasemidis, Georgios, 2016. "A hybrid model of kernel density estimation and quantile regression for GEFCom2014 probabilistic load forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 1017-1022.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Che, Jinxing & Yuan, Fang & Deng, Dewen & Jiang, Zheyong, 2023. "Ultra-short-term probabilistic wind power forecasting with spatial-temporal multi-scale features and K-FSDW based weight," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 331(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Yang, Dazhi & van der Meer, Dennis, 2021. "Post-processing in solar forecasting: Ten overarching thinking tools," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    2. González Ordiano, Jorge Ángel & Gröll, Lutz & Mikut, Ralf & Hagenmeyer, Veit, 2020. "Probabilistic energy forecasting using the nearest neighbors quantile filter and quantile regression," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 310-323.
    3. Müller, Alfred & Reuber, Matthias, 2023. "A copula-based time series model for global horizontal irradiation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 869-883.
    4. Dimoulkas, I. & Mazidi, P. & Herre, L., 2019. "Neural networks for GEFCom2017 probabilistic load forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1409-1423.
    5. Yang, Dazhi & Yang, Guoming & Liu, Bai, 2023. "Combining quantiles of calibrated solar forecasts from ensemble numerical weather prediction," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 215(C).
    6. Moreno-Carbonell, Santiago & Sánchez-Úbeda, Eugenio F. & Muñoz, Antonio, 2020. "Rethinking weather station selection for electric load forecasting using genetic algorithms," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 695-712.
    7. Kanda, Isao & Veguillas, J.M. Quintana, 2019. "Data preprocessing and quantile regression for probabilistic load forecasting in the GEFCom2017 final match," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1460-1468.
    8. Zhao, Zhibiao & Wu, Wei Biao, 2009. "Nonparametric inference of discretely sampled stable Lévy processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 153(1), pages 83-92, November.
    9. Asongu, Simplice A. & Odhiambo, Nicholas M., 2021. "Inequality, finance and renewable energy consumption in Sub-Saharan Africa," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 165(P1), pages 678-688.
    10. Benjamin Hofner & Andreas Mayr & Nikolay Robinzonov & Matthias Schmid, 2014. "Model-based boosting in R: a hands-on tutorial using the R package mboost," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 29(1), pages 3-35, February.
    11. Abeliansky, Ana & Krenz, Astrid, 2015. "Democracy and international trade: Differential effects from a panel quantile regression framework," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 243, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    12. Muller, Christophe, 2018. "Heterogeneity and nonconstant effect in two-stage quantile regression," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 8(C), pages 3-12.
    13. repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2015-031 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Otto-Sobotka, Fabian & Salvati, Nicola & Ranalli, Maria Giovanna & Kneib, Thomas, 2019. "Adaptive semiparametric M-quantile regression," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 11(C), pages 116-129.
    15. Narisetty, Naveen & Koenker, Roger, 2022. "Censored quantile regression survival models with a cure proportion," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 226(1), pages 192-203.
    16. Fan, Yanqin & Liu, Ruixuan, 2016. "A direct approach to inference in nonparametric and semiparametric quantile models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 191(1), pages 196-216.
    17. Lv, Yang & Qin, Guoyou & Zhu, Zhongyi, 2024. "Population-level information for improving quantile regression efficiency," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 215(C).
    18. Deborah A. Cobb-Clark & Sonja C. Kassenboehmer & Mathias G. Sinning, 2013. "Locus of Control and Savings," Ruhr Economic Papers 0455, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
    19. Chuliá, Helena & Garrón, Ignacio & Uribe, Jorge M., 2024. "Daily growth at risk: Financial or real drivers? The answer is not always the same," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 762-776.
    20. Monika Zimmermann & Florian Ziel, 2024. "Efficient mid-term forecasting of hourly electricity load using generalized additive models," Papers 2405.17070, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2025.
    21. Qi Li & Juan Lin & Jeffrey S. Racine, 2013. "Optimal Bandwidth Selection for Nonparametric Conditional Distribution and Quantile Functions," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(1), pages 57-65, January.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:35:y:2019:i:4:p:1432-1438. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ijforecast .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.