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News volume information: Beyond earnings forecasting in a global stock selection model

Author

Listed:
  • Gillam, Robert A.
  • Guerard, John B.
  • Cahan, Rochester

Abstract

Earnings forecasting models produce highly statistically significant asset selection, active equity, and total active returns. We propose a measure of abnormal news volume that controls for the size of the firm and the analyst attention that it receives, and demonstrate that news volume information can enhance returns relative to using only an earnings forecasting model. Furthermore, we show that this measure enhances the predictive power of a global stock selection model using information coefficients, Boolean signals, and efficient frontiers.

Suggested Citation

  • Gillam, Robert A. & Guerard, John B. & Cahan, Rochester, 2015. "News volume information: Beyond earnings forecasting in a global stock selection model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 575-581.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:31:y:2015:i:2:p:575-581
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2014.12.007
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Harry Markowitz, 1952. "Portfolio Selection," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 7(1), pages 77-91, March.
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    4. Guerard, John B. & Markowitz, Harry & Xu, GanLin, 2015. "Earnings forecasting in a global stock selection model and efficient portfolio construction and management," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 550-560.
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    8. Groß-Klußmann, Axel & Hautsch, Nikolaus, 2011. "When machines read the news: Using automated text analytics to quantify high frequency news-implied market reactions," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 321-340, March.
    9. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1995. " Size and Book-to-Market Factors in Earnings and Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(1), pages 131-155, March.
    10. Paul C. Tetlock, 2010. "Does Public Financial News Resolve Asymmetric Information?," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(9), pages 3520-3557.
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