IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/insuma/v58y2014icp103-115.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Systematic mortality risk: An analysis of guaranteed lifetime withdrawal benefits in variable annuities

Author

Listed:
  • Fung, Man Chung
  • Ignatieva, Katja
  • Sherris, Michael

Abstract

Guaranteed lifetime withdrawal benefits (GLWB) embedded in variable annuities have become an increasingly popular type of life annuity designed to cover systematic mortality risk while providing protection to policyholders from downside investment risk. This paper provides an extensive study of how different sets of financial and demographic parameters affect the fair guaranteed fee charged for a GLWB as well as the profit and loss distribution, using tractable equity and stochastic mortality models in a continuous time framework. We demonstrate the significance of parameter risk, model risk, as well as the systematic mortality risk component underlying the guarantee. We quantify how different levels of equity exposure chosen by the policyholder affect the exposure of the guarantee providers to systematic mortality risk. Finally, the effectiveness of a static hedge of systematic mortality risk is examined allowing for different levels of equity exposure.

Suggested Citation

  • Fung, Man Chung & Ignatieva, Katja & Sherris, Michael, 2014. "Systematic mortality risk: An analysis of guaranteed lifetime withdrawal benefits in variable annuities," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 103-115.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:insuma:v:58:y:2014:i:c:p:103-115
    DOI: 10.1016/j.insmatheco.2014.06.010
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0167668714000821
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.insmatheco.2014.06.010?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ziveyi, Jonathan & Blackburn, Craig & Sherris, Michael, 2013. "Pricing European options on deferred annuities," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 300-311.
    2. Bacinello, Anna Rita & Millossovich, Pietro & Olivieri, Annamaria & Pitacco, Ermanno, 2011. "Variable annuities: A unifying valuation approach," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 285-297.
    3. Gabriella Piscopo & Steven Haberman, 2011. "The Valuation of Guaranteed Lifelong Withdrawal Benefit Options in Variable Annuity Contracts and the Impact of Mortality Risk," North American Actuarial Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(1), pages 59-76.
    4. Dahl, Mikkel & Moller, Thomas, 2006. "Valuation and hedging of life insurance liabilities with systematic mortality risk," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 193-217, October.
    5. Russo, Vincenzo & Giacometti, Rosella & Ortobelli, Sergio & Rachev, Svetlozar & Fabozzi, Frank J., 2011. "Calibrating affine stochastic mortality models using term assurance premiums," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 53-60, July.
    6. LUCIANO, Elisa & VIGNA, Elena, 2008. "Mortality risk via affine stochastic intensities: calibration and empirical relevance," MPRA Paper 59627, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Ledlie, M. C. & Corry, D. P. & Finkelstein, G. S. & Ritchie, A. J. & Su, K. & Wilson, D. C. E., 2008. "Variable Annuities," British Actuarial Journal, Cambridge University Press, vol. 14(2), pages 327-389, July.
    8. Milevsky, Moshe A. & Salisbury, Thomas S., 2006. "Financial valuation of guaranteed minimum withdrawal benefits," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 21-38, February.
    9. Schrager, David F., 2006. "Affine stochastic mortality," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 81-97, February.
    10. Cairns, Andrew J.G. & Blake, David & Dowd, Kevin, 2006. "Pricing Death: Frameworks for the Valuation and Securitization of Mortality Risk," ASTIN Bulletin, Cambridge University Press, vol. 36(1), pages 79-120, May.
    11. Kevin Dowd, 2003. "Survivor Bonds: A Comment on Blake and Burrows," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 70(2), pages 339-348, June.
    12. Kling, Alexander & Ruez, Frederik & Ruß, Jochen, 2011. "The Impact of Stochastic Volatility on Pricing, Hedging, and Hedge Efficiency of Withdrawal Benefit Guarantees in Variable Annuities," ASTIN Bulletin, Cambridge University Press, vol. 41(2), pages 511-545, November.
    13. Ngai, Andrew & Sherris, Michael, 2011. "Longevity risk management for life and variable annuities: The effectiveness of static hedging using longevity bonds and derivatives," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 100-114, July.
    14. Biffis, Enrico, 2005. "Affine processes for dynamic mortality and actuarial valuations," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 443-468, December.
    15. Bjork, Tomas, 2009. "Arbitrage Theory in Continuous Time," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, edition 3, number 9780199574742.
    16. Hári, Norbert & De Waegenaere, Anja & Melenberg, Bertrand & Nijman, Theo E., 2008. "Longevity risk in portfolios of pension annuities," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 505-519, April.
    17. Ballotta, Laura & Haberman, Steven, 2006. "The fair valuation problem of guaranteed annuity options: The stochastic mortality environment case," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 195-214, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Karim Barigou & Lukasz Delong, 2021. "Pricing equity-linked life insurance contracts with multiple risk factors by neural networks," Post-Print hal-02896141, HAL.
    2. Feng, Runhuan & Jing, Xiaochen, 2017. "Analytical valuation and hedging of variable annuity guaranteed lifetime withdrawal benefits," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 36-48.
    3. Karim Barigou & Lukasz Delong, 2020. "Pricing equity-linked life insurance contracts with multiple risk factors by neural networks," Papers 2007.08804, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2021.
    4. Kirkby, J. Lars & Nguyen, Duy, 2021. "Equity-linked Guaranteed Minimum Death Benefits with dollar cost averaging," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 408-428.
    5. Huang, Yiming & Mamon, Rogemar & Xiong, Heng, 2022. "Valuing guaranteed minimum accumulation benefits by a change of numéraire approach," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 1-26.
    6. Karim Barigou & Daniel Linders & Fan Yang, 2021. "Actuarial-consistency and two-step actuarial valuations: a new paradigm to insurance valuation," Papers 2109.13796, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2022.
    7. Karim Barigou & Daniël Linders & Fan yang, 2022. "Actuarial-consistency and two-step actuarial valuations: a new paradigm to insurance valuation," Working Papers hal-03327710, HAL.
    8. Jin Sun & Pavel V. Shevchenko & Man Chung Fung, 2017. "A note on the impact of management fees on the pricing of variable annuity guarantees," Papers 1705.03787, arXiv.org, revised May 2017.
    9. Man Chung Fung & Katja Ignatieva & Michael Sherris, 2019. "Managing Systematic Mortality Risk in Life Annuities: An Application of Longevity Derivatives," Risks, MDPI, vol. 7(1), pages 1-25, January.
    10. Leung, Melvern & Fung, Man Chung & O’Hare, Colin, 2018. "A comparative study of pricing approaches for longevity instruments," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 95-116.
    11. Apicella, Giovanna & Dacorogna, Michel M, 2016. "A General framework for modelling mortality to better estimate its relationship with interest rate risks," MPRA Paper 75788, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Menoncin, Francesco & Regis, Luca, 2020. "Optimal life-cycle labour supply, consumption, and investment: The role of longevity-linked assets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    13. Milevsky, Moshe A., 2020. "Calibrating Gompertz in reverse: What is your longevity-risk-adjusted global age?," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 147-161.
    14. Karim Barigou & Lukasz Delong, 2021. "Pricing equity-linked life insurance contracts with multiple risk factors by neural networks," Working Papers hal-02896141, HAL.
    15. Ignatieva, Katja & Song, Andrew & Ziveyi, Jonathan, 2016. "Pricing and hedging of guaranteed minimum benefits under regime-switching and stochastic mortality," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 286-300.
    16. Pavel V. Shevchenko & Xiaolin Luo, 2016. "A Unified Pricing of Variable Annuity Guarantees under the Optimal Stochastic Control Framework," Risks, MDPI, vol. 4(3), pages 1-31, July.
    17. Wenlong Hu, 2020. "Risk management of guaranteed minimum maturity benefits under stochastic mortality and regime-switching by Fourier space time-stepping framework," Papers 2006.15483, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2020.
    18. Karim Barigou & Daniël Linders & Fan Yang, 2022. "Actuarial-consistency and two-step actuarial valuations: a new paradigm to insurance valuation," Post-Print hal-03327710, HAL.
    19. Anna Rita Bacinello & Ivan Zoccolan, 2019. "Variable annuities with a threshold fee: valuation, numerical implementation and comparative static analysis," Decisions in Economics and Finance, Springer;Associazione per la Matematica, vol. 42(1), pages 21-49, June.
    20. Man Chung Fung & Gareth W. Peters & Pavel V. Shevchenko, 2017. "Cohort effects in mortality modelling: a Bayesian state-space approach," Papers 1703.08282, arXiv.org.
    21. Clemente De Rosa & Elisa Luciano & Luca Regis, 2017. "Basis risk in static versus dynamic longevity-risk hedging," Scandinavian Actuarial Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2017(4), pages 343-365, April.
    22. Massimo Costabile & Fabio Viviano, 2021. "Modeling the Future Value Distribution of a Life Insurance Portfolio," Risks, MDPI, vol. 9(10), pages 1-17, October.
    23. Jin Sun & Pavel V. Shevchenko & Man Chung Fung, 2018. "The Impact of Management Fees on the Pricing of Variable Annuity Guarantees," Risks, MDPI, vol. 6(3), pages 1-20, September.
    24. Clemente De Rosa & Elisa Luciano & Luca Regis, 2015. "Static versus dynamic longevity-risk hedging," Carlo Alberto Notebooks 403, Collegio Carlo Alberto.
    25. Chen, An & Li, Hong & Schultze, Mark, 2022. "Collective longevity swap: A novel longevity risk transfer solution and its economic pricing," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 201(C), pages 227-249.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Deelstra, Griselda & Grasselli, Martino & Van Weverberg, Christopher, 2016. "The role of the dependence between mortality and interest rates when pricing Guaranteed Annuity Options," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 205-219.
    2. Huang, H. & Milevsky, M.A. & Salisbury, T.S., 2014. "Optimal initiation of a GLWB in a variable annuity: No Arbitrage approach," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 102-111.
    3. Blake, David & Cairns, Andrew J.G., 2021. "Longevity risk and capital markets: The 2019-20 update," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 395-439.
    4. Apicella, Giovanna & Dacorogna, Michel M, 2016. "A General framework for modelling mortality to better estimate its relationship with interest rate risks," MPRA Paper 75788, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Ignatieva, Katja & Song, Andrew & Ziveyi, Jonathan, 2016. "Pricing and hedging of guaranteed minimum benefits under regime-switching and stochastic mortality," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 286-300.
    6. Man Chung Fung & Katja Ignatieva & Michael Sherris, 2019. "Managing Systematic Mortality Risk in Life Annuities: An Application of Longevity Derivatives," Risks, MDPI, vol. 7(1), pages 1-25, January.
    7. Rihab Bedoui & Islem Kedidi, 2018. "Modeling Longevity Risk using Consistent Dynamics Affine Mortality Models," Working Papers hal-01678050, HAL.
    8. Marcus C. Christiansen, 2013. "Gaussian and Affine Approximation of Stochastic Diffusion Models for Interest and Mortality Rates," Risks, MDPI, vol. 1(3), pages 1-20, October.
    9. Jevtić, Petar & Regis, Luca, 2015. "Assessing the solvency of insurance portfolios via a continuous-time cohort model," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 36-47.
    10. Bravo, Jorge M. & Nunes, João Pedro Vidal, 2021. "Pricing longevity derivatives via Fourier transforms," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 81-97.
    11. Tsai, Jeffrey T. & Wang, Jennifer L. & Tzeng, Larry Y., 2010. "On the optimal product mix in life insurance companies using conditional value at risk," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 235-241, February.
    12. Marcos Escobar & Mikhail Krayzler & Franz Ramsauer & David Saunders & Rudi Zagst, 2016. "Incorporation of Stochastic Policyholder Behavior in Analytical Pricing of GMABs and GMDBs," Risks, MDPI, vol. 4(4), pages 1-36, November.
    13. Forsyth, Peter & Vetzal, Kenneth, 2014. "An optimal stochastic control framework for determining the cost of hedging of variable annuities," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 29-53.
    14. Jevtić, P. & Hurd, T.R., 2017. "The joint mortality of couples in continuous time," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 90-97.
    15. Virginia R. Young, 2007. "Pricing Life Insurance under Stochastic Mortality via the Instantaneous Sharpe Ratio: Theorems and Proofs," Papers 0705.1297, arXiv.org.
    16. Blake, David & El Karoui, Nicole & Loisel, Stéphane & MacMinn, Richard, 2018. "Longevity risk and capital markets: The 2015–16 update," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 157-173.
    17. Anastasia Novokreshchenova, 2016. "Predicting Human Mortality: Quantitative Evaluation of Four Stochastic Models," Risks, MDPI, vol. 4(4), pages 1-28, December.
    18. David Blake & Marco Morales & Enrico Biffis & Yijia Lin & Andreas Milidonis, 2017. "Special Edition: Longevity 10 – The Tenth International Longevity Risk and Capital Markets Solutions Conference," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 84(S1), pages 515-532, April.
    19. Homa Magdalena, 2020. "Mathematical Reserves vs Longevity Risk in Life Insurances," Econometrics. Advances in Applied Data Analysis, Sciendo, vol. 24(1), pages 23-38, March.
    20. Man Chung Fung & Katja Ignatieva & Michael Sherris, 2015. "Managing Systematic Mortality Risk in Life Annuities: An Application of Longevity Derivatives," Papers 1508.00090, arXiv.org.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Variable annuity; Guaranteed lifetime withdrawal benefits (GLWB); Systematic mortality risk; Parameter risk; Model risk; Static hedging;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G22 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Insurance; Insurance Companies; Actuarial Studies
    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:insuma:v:58:y:2014:i:c:p:103-115. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505554 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.