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Intensity-based premium evaluation for unemployment insurance products

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  • Biagini, Francesca
  • Groll, Andreas
  • Widenmann, Jan

Abstract

We present a flexible premium determination method for insurance products, in particular, for unemployment insurance products. The price is determined with the real-world pricing formula and under the assumption that the employment–unemployment progress of an insured person follows an F-doubly stochastic Markov chain. The stochastic intensity processes are estimated for the German labor market, using Cox’s proportional hazards model with time-dependent covariates on a sample of integrated labor market biographies. The estimation procedure is based on a counting process framework with stochastic compensators, which we show to be naturally connected to the class of F-doubly stochastic Markov chains. Based on the statistical analysis, the prices are computed using Monte Carlo simulations.

Suggested Citation

  • Biagini, Francesca & Groll, Andreas & Widenmann, Jan, 2013. "Intensity-based premium evaluation for unemployment insurance products," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 302-316.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:insuma:v:53:y:2013:i:1:p:302-316
    DOI: 10.1016/j.insmatheco.2013.06.001
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    9. Francesca Biagini & Jan Widenmann, 2012. "Pricing Of Unemployment Insurance Products With Doubly Stochastic Markov Chains," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 15(04), pages 1-32.
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    Cited by:

    1. Xing, Jie & Ma, Jingtang & Yang, Wensheng, 2023. "Optimal entry decision of unemployment insurance under partial information," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 31-52.
    2. Francesca Biagini & Andreas Groll & Jan Widenmann, 2016. "Risk Minimization for Insurance Products via F-Doubly Stochastic Markov Chains," Risks, MDPI, vol. 4(3), pages 1-26, July.
    3. Bielecki, Tomasz R. & Jakubowski, Jacek & Niewęgłowski, Mariusz, 2017. "Conditional Markov chains: Properties, construction and structured dependence," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 127(4), pages 1125-1170.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search
    • J65 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment Insurance; Severance Pay; Plant Closings
    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General

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