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Modelling and projecting mortality improvement rates using a cohort perspective

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  • Haberman, Steven
  • Renshaw, Arthur

Abstract

We investigate the feasibility of defining, modelling and projecting of (scaled) mortality improvement rates along cohort years-of-birth, that is, using a cohort perspective. This is in contrast to the approach in the literature which has considered mortality improvement rates that are defined by reference to changes in mortality rates over successive calendar years, that is, using a period perspective. In this paper, we offer a comparison of the 2 parallel approaches to modelling and forecasting using mortality improvement rates. Comparisons of simulated life expectancy and annuity value predictions (mainly by the cohort method) using the England & Wales population mortality experiences for males and females under a variety of controlled data trimming exercises are presented and comparisons are also made between the parallel cohort and period based approaches.

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  • Haberman, Steven & Renshaw, Arthur, 2013. "Modelling and projecting mortality improvement rates using a cohort perspective," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 150-168.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:insuma:v:53:y:2013:i:1:p:150-168
    DOI: 10.1016/j.insmatheco.2013.04.006
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Haberman, Steven & Renshaw, Arthur, 2011. "A comparative study of parametric mortality projection models," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 35-55, January.
    2. Jarner, Søren Fiig & Kryger, Esben Masotti, 2011. "Modelling Adult Mortality in Small Populations: The Saint Model," ASTIN Bulletin, Cambridge University Press, vol. 41(2), pages 377-418, November.
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    5. Brouhns, Natacha & Denuit, Michel & Vermunt, Jeroen K., 2002. "A Poisson log-bilinear regression approach to the construction of projected lifetables," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 373-393, December.
    6. Haberman, Steven & Renshaw, Arthur, 2012. "Parametric mortality improvement rate modelling and projecting," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 309-333.
    7. Kevin Dowd & Andrew Cairns & David Blake & Guy Coughlan & David Epstein & Marwa Khalaf-Allah, 2010. "Backtesting Stochastic Mortality Models," North American Actuarial Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(3), pages 281-298.
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    3. Colin O’hare & Youwei Li, 2017. "Modelling mortality: are we heading in the right direction?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(2), pages 170-187, January.
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    6. Helena Chuliá & Montserrat Guillén & Jorge M. Uribe, 2015. "Mortality and Longevity Risks in the United Kingdom: Dynamic Factor Models and Copula-Functions," Working Papers 2015-03, Universitat de Barcelona, UB Riskcenter.
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    8. Li, Johnny Siu-Hang & Liu, Yanxin, 2021. "Recent declines in life expectancy: Implication on longevity risk hedging," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 376-394.
    9. Blake, David & El Karoui, Nicole & Loisel, Stéphane & MacMinn, Richard, 2018. "Longevity risk and capital markets: The 2015–16 update," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 157-173.
    10. Tickle Leonie & Booth Heather, 2014. "The Longevity Prospects of Australian Seniors: An Evaluation of Forecast Method and Outcome," Asia-Pacific Journal of Risk and Insurance, De Gruyter, vol. 8(2), pages 259-292, July.
    11. Hung-Tsung Hsiao & Chou-Wen Wang & I.-Chien Liu & Ko-Lun Kung, 2024. "Mortality improvement neural-network models with autoregressive effects," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan;The Geneva Association, vol. 49(2), pages 363-383, April.
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