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The over-optimism of financial analysts and the long-run performance of firms following private placements of equity

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  • Lin, Wen-Chun
  • Chang, Shao-Chi
  • Chen, Sheng-Syan
  • Liao, Tsai-Ling

Abstract

We set out to determine whether the over-optimism of analysts has negative impacts on the subsequent long-run performance of firms following private placements of equity (PIPEs). Our results indicate that analysts do tend to make over-optimistic forecasts at the time of PIPEs, and that such over-optimistic forecasts can lead to investors erroneously overstating the value of placement firms, resulting in subsequent revisions of their valuations over time. We further infer that when firms announce their PIPEs, over-optimistic forecasts tend to lead to overstated valuations. The evidence shows that the long-run performance of PIPEs has a negative correlation with over-optimistic forecasts.

Suggested Citation

  • Lin, Wen-Chun & Chang, Shao-Chi & Chen, Sheng-Syan & Liao, Tsai-Ling, 2013. "The over-optimism of financial analysts and the long-run performance of firms following private placements of equity," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 82-92.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:10:y:2013:i:2:p:82-92
    DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2012.12.001
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    Cited by:

    1. K. C. Kenneth Chu & W. H. Sophia Zhai, 2021. "Distress risk puzzle and analyst forecast optimism," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 57(2), pages 429-460, August.
    2. Roger, Tristan, 2017. "Reporting errors in the I/B/E/S earnings forecast database: J. Doe vs. J. Doe," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 170-176.
    3. Karen Benson & Martina K. Linnenluecke & David Morrison & Sviatoslav Rosov, 2020. "Death spiral PIPEs: a reconsideration of the evidence," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 60(4), pages 4175-4194, December.
    4. Li, Wanyun, 2022. "Disclosure of internal control material weaknesses and optimism in analyst earnings forecasts," International Journal of Accounting Information Systems, Elsevier, vol. 44(C).
    5. Hsu, Yuan-Teng & Huang, Chia-Wei, 2016. "Idiosyncratic risk and share repurchases," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 18(C), pages 76-82.
    6. Taussig, Roi D., 2022. "Market prices, analysts' predictions, and Covid19," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 46(PA).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Private equity placements; Financial analysts forecast; Over-optimism; Long-run performance;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation
    • G29 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Other
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

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