Towards near-zero carbon: Low-Carbon evolution and planning of time-regulated park integrated energy system

In the context of global climate change, Park Integrated Energy Systems play a pivotal role in achieving near-zero carbon targets. A novel time-sequenced planning model for Park Integrated Energy Systems is proposed, which integrates two-stage Power-to-Gas technology and a stepped carbon trading mechanism. The model optimizes life cycle costs (including carbon trading expenses) while enforcing dynamic carbon emission constraints post-peak years. Key innovations include: (1) A two-stage Power-to-Gas framework coupling electrolyzers, methane reactors, and hydrogen fuel cells, reducing energy cascade losses by 18 % compared to conventional Power-to-Gas; (2) A Monte Carlo-based path sampling method addressing investment cost uncertainties. Case studies on a Chinese industrial park demonstrate that compared with a single-stage planning, the proposed model, through the integrated application of three key technologies, has solved the problems of equipment redundancy and ambiguous emission paths, resulting in a 30.2 % reduction in total emissions and a 12.7 % decrease in life cycle costs. Sensitivity analyses reveal that a carbon price threshold of ¥120/ton triggers accelerated adoption of hydrogen storage, highlighting policy implications.