IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/energy/v272y2023ics0360544223005546.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Probabilistic feasibility assessment of sequestration reliance for climate targets

Author

Listed:
  • Matamala, Yolanda
  • Flores, Francisco
  • Arriet, Andrea
  • Khan, Zarrar
  • Feijoo, Felipe

Abstract

Countries worldwide are transforming their energy systems to achieve Carbon-Neutrality. Investing in renewable resources-based technologies and implementing Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) are common strategies to achieve higher sequestration levels. Negative emissions through Bioenergy with CCS are expected to play an essential role in the transition to full decarbonization. On top of that, biomass is a limited resource that depends on environmental factors, which create uncertainties related to the amount that can be sustainably provided to the energy system. Therefore, this study emphasizes the relevance of variability in carbon sequestration for achieving climate targets by 2050. This paper proposes a probabilistic approach that integrates the Global Change Analysis Model for Latin America (GCAM-LA) with a chance constraint approach. GCAM-LA is used to assess the impact on the energy sector of different limits of sustainable biomass and carbon budget scenarios. The risk associated with exceeding the sequestration capacity of a given region is modeled via Chance Constraint. Results show that electrification is an appropriate long-term decarbonization strategy. It smoothes the effects of uncertainty in sequestration capacity and responds to end-user demands. For this case study, higher levels of electrification are obtained at likelihood levels >66% for end-use sectors.

Suggested Citation

  • Matamala, Yolanda & Flores, Francisco & Arriet, Andrea & Khan, Zarrar & Feijoo, Felipe, 2023. "Probabilistic feasibility assessment of sequestration reliance for climate targets," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 272(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:272:y:2023:i:c:s0360544223005546
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2023.127160
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544223005546
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.energy.2023.127160?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Joeri Rogelj & David L. McCollum & Andy Reisinger & Malte Meinshausen & Keywan Riahi, 2013. "Probabilistic cost estimates for climate change mitigation," Nature, Nature, vol. 493(7430), pages 79-83, January.
    2. Amigo, Pía & Cea-Echenique, Sebastián & Feijoo, Felipe, 2021. "A two stage cap-and-trade model with allowance re-trading and capacity investment: The case of the Chilean NDC targets," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 224(C).
    3. Silvia R. Santos da Silva & Mohamad I. Hejazi & Gokul Iyer & Thomas B. Wild & Matthew Binsted & Fernando Miralles-Wilhelm & Pralit Patel & Abigail C. Snyder & Chris R. Vernon, 2021. "Power sector investment implications of climate impacts on renewable resources in Latin America and the Caribbean," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-12, December.
    4. Raphael Slade & Ausilio Bauen & Robert Gross, 2014. "Global bioenergy resources," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 4(2), pages 99-105, February.
    5. Simsek, Yeliz & Sahin, Hasret & Lorca, Álvaro & Santika, Wayan G. & Urmee, Tania & Escobar, Rodrigo, 2020. "Comparison of energy scenario alternatives for Chile: Towards low-carbon energy transition by 2030," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 206(C).
    6. Matamala, Yolanda & Feijoo, Felipe, 2021. "A two-stage stochastic Stackelberg model for microgrid operation with chance constraints for renewable energy generation uncertainty," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 303(C).
    7. Vera Heck & Dieter Gerten & Wolfgang Lucht & Alexander Popp, 2018. "Author Correction: Biomass-based negative emissions difficult to reconcile with planetary boundaries," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 8(4), pages 345-345, April.
    8. Matteo Muratori & Nico Bauer & Steven K. Rose & Marshall Wise & Vassilis Daioglou & Yiyun Cui & Etsushi Kato & Matthew Gidden & Jessica Strefler & Shinichiro Fujimori & Ronald D. Sands & Detlef P. Vuu, 2020. "EMF-33 insights on bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS)," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 163(3), pages 1621-1637, December.
    9. Feijoo, Felipe & Das, Tapas K., 2015. "Emissions control via carbon policies and microgrid generation: A bilevel model and Pareto analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 90(P2), pages 1545-1555.
    10. Pete Smith & Steven J. Davis & Felix Creutzig & Sabine Fuss & Jan Minx & Benoit Gabrielle & Etsushi Kato & Robert B. Jackson & Annette Cowie & Elmar Kriegler & Detlef P. van Vuuren & Joeri Rogelj & Ph, 2016. "Biophysical and economic limits to negative CO2 emissions," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 6(1), pages 42-50, January.
    11. Vera Heck & Dieter Gerten & Wolfgang Lucht & Alexander Popp, 2018. "Biomass-based negative emissions difficult to reconcile with planetary boundaries," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 8(2), pages 151-155, February.
    12. Raul O’ Ryan & Carlos Benavides & Manuel Díaz & Juan Pablo San Martín & Javier Mallea, 2019. "Using probabilistic analysis to improve greenhouse gas baseline forecasts in developing country contexts: the case of Chile," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(3), pages 299-314, March.
    13. Feijoo, Felipe & Das, Tapas K., 2014. "Design of Pareto optimal CO2 cap-and-trade policies for deregulated electricity networks," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 371-383.
    14. Silva Herran, Diego & Tachiiri, Kaoru & Matsumoto, Ken'ichi, 2019. "Global energy system transformations in mitigation scenarios considering climate uncertainties," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 243(C), pages 119-131.
    15. Felipe Feijoo & Gokul Iyer & Matthew Binsted & James Edmonds, 2020. "US energy system transitions under cumulative emissions budgets," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 162(4), pages 1947-1963, October.
    16. Papadis, Elisa & Tsatsaronis, George, 2020. "Challenges in the decarbonization of the energy sector," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 205(C).
    17. Luiz E. O. C. Aragão & Liana O. Anderson & Marisa G. Fonseca & Thais M. Rosan & Laura B. Vedovato & Fabien H. Wagner & Camila V. J. Silva & Celso H. L. Silva Junior & Egidio Arai & Ana P. Aguiar & Jos, 2018. "21st Century drought-related fires counteract the decline of Amazon deforestation carbon emissions," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 9(1), pages 1-12, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Licandeo, Francisca & Flores, Francisco & Feijoo, Felipe, 2023. "Assessing the impacts of economy-wide emissions policies in the water, energy, and land systems considering water scarcity scenarios," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 342(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Matamala, Yolanda & Feijoo, Felipe, 2021. "A two-stage stochastic Stackelberg model for microgrid operation with chance constraints for renewable energy generation uncertainty," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 303(C).
    2. Amigo, Pía & Cea-Echenique, Sebastián & Feijoo, Felipe, 2021. "A two stage cap-and-trade model with allowance re-trading and capacity investment: The case of the Chilean NDC targets," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 224(C).
    3. Günther, Philipp & Ekardt, Felix, 2022. "Human Rights and Large-Scale Carbon Dioxide Removal: Potential Limits to BECCS and DACCS Deployment," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 11(12), pages 1-29.
    4. Qing Wang & Hanbing Xiong & Tingzhen Ming, 2022. "Methods of Large-Scale Capture and Removal of Atmospheric Greenhouse Gases," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(18), pages 1-5, September.
    5. Galán-Martín, Ángel & Contreras, María del Mar & Romero, Inmaculada & Ruiz, Encarnación & Bueno-Rodríguez, Salvador & Eliche-Quesada, Dolores & Castro-Galiano, Eulogio, 2022. "The potential role of olive groves to deliver carbon dioxide removal in a carbon-neutral Europe: Opportunities and challenges," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 165(C).
    6. Wim Carton & Adeniyi Asiyanbi & Silke Beck & Holly J. Buck & Jens F. Lund, 2020. "Negative emissions and the long history of carbon removal," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 11(6), November.
    7. Xu Deng & Fei Teng & Minpeng Chen & Zhangliu Du & Bin Wang & Renqiang Li & Pan Wang, 2024. "Exploring negative emission potential of biochar to achieve carbon neutrality goal in China," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-11, December.
    8. Philipp Günther & Felix Ekardt, 2022. "Human Rights and Large-Scale Carbon Dioxide Removal: Potential Limits to BECCS and DACCS Deployment," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-29, November.
    9. Duncan Brack & Richard King, 2021. "Managing Land‐based CDR: BECCS, Forests and Carbon Sequestration," Global Policy, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 12(S1), pages 45-56, April.
    10. Selene Cobo & Ángel Galán-Martín & Victor Tulus & Mark A. J. Huijbregts & Gonzalo Guillén-Gosálbez, 2022. "Human and planetary health implications of negative emissions technologies," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-11, December.
    11. Kate Dooley & Ellycia Harrould‐Kolieb & Anita Talberg, 2021. "Carbon‐dioxide Removal and Biodiversity: A Threat Identification Framework," Global Policy, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 12(S1), pages 34-44, April.
    12. Ángel Galán-Martín & Daniel Vázquez & Selene Cobo & Niall Dowell & José Antonio Caballero & Gonzalo Guillén-Gosálbez, 2021. "Delaying carbon dioxide removal in the European Union puts climate targets at risk," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-12, December.
    13. Vera, Ivan & Wicke, Birka & Lamers, Patrick & Cowie, Annette & Repo, Anna & Heukels, Bas & Zumpf, Colleen & Styles, David & Parish, Esther & Cherubini, Francesco & Berndes, Göran & Jager, Henriette & , 2022. "Land use for bioenergy: Synergies and trade-offs between sustainable development goals," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    14. Negri, Valentina & Galán-Martín, Ángel & Pozo, Carlos & Fajardy, Mathilde & Reiner, David M. & Mac Dowell, Niall & Guillén-Gosálbez, Gonzalo, 2021. "Life cycle optimization of BECCS supply chains in the European Union," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 298(C).
    15. Subramanian, Vignesh & Feijoo, Felipe & Sankaranarayanan, Sriram & Melendez, Kevin & Das, Tapas K., 2022. "A bilevel conic optimization model for routing and charging of EV fleets serving long distance delivery networks," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 251(C).
    16. Feng, Jing-Chun & Sun, Liwei & Yan, Jinyue, 2023. "Carbon sequestration via shellfish farming: A potential negative emissions technology," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 171(C).
    17. Burke, Joshua & Gambhir, Ajay, 2022. "Policy incentives for greenhouse gas removal techniques: the risks of premature inclusion in carbon markets and the need for a multi-pronged policy framework," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 115010, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    18. Stefano Di Bucchianico & Federica Cappelli, 2021. "Exploring the theoretical link between profitability and luxury emissions," Working Papers PKWP2114, Post Keynesian Economics Society (PKES).
    19. Licandeo, Francisca & Flores, Francisco & Feijoo, Felipe, 2023. "Assessing the impacts of economy-wide emissions policies in the water, energy, and land systems considering water scarcity scenarios," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 342(C).
    20. Johnson, Elliott & Betts-Davies, Sam & Barrett, John, 2023. "Comparative analysis of UK net-zero scenarios: The role of energy demand reduction," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 179(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:272:y:2023:i:c:s0360544223005546. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.