IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/energy/v135y2017icp153-170.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Typical scenario set generation algorithm for an integrated energy system based on the Wasserstein distance metric

Author

Listed:
  • Fu, Xueqian
  • Guo, Qinglai
  • Sun, Hongbin
  • Pan, Zhaoguang
  • Xiong, Wen
  • Wang, Li

Abstract

The stochastic fluctuation characteristics of intermittent renewable energy sources and energy loads, as well as their multi-energy interactions and dependencies, have negligible effects on the operation and analyses of integrated energy systems. Determining how to model the probability characteristics of such systems with high calculation accuracy using limited scenarios is a major difficulty of uncertainty description. This study proposes the use of an optimum quantile method based on the Wasserstein distance metric to generate a typical scenario set in an integrated energy system considering energy correlations based on weather conditions. The use of discrete variables, as opposed to continuous variables based on sampling techniques such as Monte Carlo simulations, sets this study apart from other studies. The uncertainties of a typical network containing power, heat, and gas are analysed, and the results show that the proposed method can produce a typical scenario set with good precision.

Suggested Citation

  • Fu, Xueqian & Guo, Qinglai & Sun, Hongbin & Pan, Zhaoguang & Xiong, Wen & Wang, Li, 2017. "Typical scenario set generation algorithm for an integrated energy system based on the Wasserstein distance metric," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 153-170.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:135:y:2017:i:c:p:153-170
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2017.06.113
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544217310964
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.energy.2017.06.113?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Liu, Xuezhi & Wu, Jianzhong & Jenkins, Nick & Bagdanavicius, Audrius, 2016. "Combined analysis of electricity and heat networks," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 1238-1250.
    2. Rezaee Jordehi, Ahmad, 2016. "Allocation of distributed generation units in electric power systems: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 893-905.
    3. Fu, Xueqian & Chen, Haoyong & Cai, Runqing & Yang, Ping, 2015. "Optimal allocation and adaptive VAR control of PV-DG in distribution networks," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 137(C), pages 173-182.
    4. Nuytten, Thomas & Claessens, Bert & Paredis, Kristof & Van Bael, Johan & Six, Daan, 2013. "Flexibility of a combined heat and power system with thermal energy storage for district heating," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 583-591.
    5. Kalina, Jacek, 2016. "Complex thermal energy conversion systems for efficient use of locally available biomass," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 105-115.
    6. Azizipanah-Abarghooee, Rasoul & Niknam, Taher & Bina, Mohammad Amin & Zare, Mohsen, 2015. "Coordination of combined heat and power-thermal-wind-photovoltaic units in economic load dispatch using chance-constrained and jointly distributed random variables methods," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 50-67.
    7. Fu, Xueqian & Sun, Hongbin & Guo, Qinglai & Pan, Zhaoguang & Zhang, Xiurong & Zeng, Shunqi, 2017. "Probabilistic power flow analysis considering the dependence between power and heat," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 191(C), pages 582-592.
    8. Mikkola, Jani & Lund, Peter D., 2016. "Modeling flexibility and optimal use of existing power plants with large-scale variable renewable power schemes," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 364-375.
    9. Richard P. O'Neill & Mark Williard & Bert Wilkins & Ralph Pike, 1979. "A Mathematical Programming Model for Allocation of Natural Gas," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 27(5), pages 857-873, October.
    10. Fu, Xueqian & Sun, Hongbin & Guo, Qinglai & Pan, Zhaoguang & Xiong, Wen & Wang, Li, 2017. "Uncertainty analysis of an integrated energy system based on information theory," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 649-662.
    11. Kopanos, Georgios M. & Georgiadis, Michael C. & Pistikopoulos, Efstratios N., 2013. "Energy production planning of a network of micro combined heat and power generators," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 1522-1534.
    12. Niknam, Taher & Golestaneh, Faranak & Shafiei, Mehdi, 2013. "Probabilistic energy management of a renewable microgrid with hydrogen storage using self-adaptive charge search algorithm," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 252-267.
    13. Akbari, Kaveh & Jolai, Fariborz & Ghaderi, Seyed Farid, 2016. "Optimal design of distributed energy system in a neighborhood under uncertainty," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 116(P1), pages 567-582.
    14. Chicco, Gianfranco & Mancarella, Pierluigi, 2009. "Matrix modelling of small-scale trigeneration systems and application to operational optimization," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 261-273.
    15. Nastasi, Benedetto & Lo Basso, Gianluigi, 2016. "Hydrogen to link heat and electricity in the transition towards future Smart Energy Systems," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 5-22.
    16. Zhou, Zhe & Zhang, Jianyun & Liu, Pei & Li, Zheng & Georgiadis, Michael C. & Pistikopoulos, Efstratios N., 2013. "A two-stage stochastic programming model for the optimal design of distributed energy systems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 135-144.
    17. Houwing, Michiel & Ajah, Austin N. & Heijnen, Petra W. & Bouwmans, Ivo & Herder, Paulien M., 2008. "Uncertainties in the design and operation of distributed energy resources: The case of micro-CHP systems," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 33(10), pages 1518-1536.
    18. Qiao, Zheng & Guo, Qinglai & Sun, Hongbin & Pan, Zhaoguang & Liu, Yuquan & Xiong, Wen, 2017. "An interval gas flow analysis in natural gas and electricity coupled networks considering the uncertainty of wind power," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 201(C), pages 343-353.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Anderson Mitterhofer Iung & Fernando Luiz Cyrino Oliveira & André Luís Marques Marcato, 2023. "A Review on Modeling Variable Renewable Energy: Complementarity and Spatial–Temporal Dependence," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(3), pages 1-24, January.
    2. Chi, Lixun & Su, Huai & Zio, Enrico & Zhang, Jinjun & Li, Xueyi & Zhang, Li & Fan, Lin & Zhou, Jing & Bai, Hua, 2020. "Integrated Deterministic and Probabilistic Safety Analysis of Integrated Energy Systems with bi-directional conversion," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 212(C).
    3. Li, Jinghua & Zhou, Jiasheng & Chen, Bo, 2020. "Review of wind power scenario generation methods for optimal operation of renewable energy systems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 280(C).
    4. Fu, Xueqian & Li, Gengyin & Wang, Huaizhi, 2018. "Use of a second-order reliability method to estimate the failure probability of an integrated energy system," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 425-434.
    5. Hu, Jinxing & Li, Hongru, 2022. "A transfer learning-based scenario generation method for stochastic optimal scheduling of microgrid with newly-built wind farm," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 185(C), pages 1139-1151.
    6. Fu, Xueqian & Li, Gengyin & Zhang, Xiurong & Qiao, Zheng, 2018. "Failure probability estimation of the gas supply using a data-driven model in an integrated energy system," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 232(C), pages 704-714.
    7. Qin, Chao & Yan, Qingyou & He, Gang, 2019. "Integrated energy systems planning with electricity, heat and gas using particle swarm optimization," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 188(C).
    8. Markos A. Kousounadis-Knousen & Ioannis K. Bazionis & Athina P. Georgilaki & Francky Catthoor & Pavlos S. Georgilakis, 2023. "A Review of Solar Power Scenario Generation Methods with Focus on Weather Classifications, Temporal Horizons, and Deep Generative Models," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(15), pages 1-29, July.
    9. Fu, Xueqian & Zhang, Xiurong, 2019. "Estimation of building energy consumption using weather information derived from photovoltaic power plants," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 130-138.
    10. Zhong, Shengyuan & Zhao, Jun & Li, Wenjia & Li, Hao & Deng, Shuai & Li, Yang & Hussain, Sajjad & Wang, Xiaoyuan & Zhu, Jiebei, 2021. "Quantitative analysis of information interaction in building energy systems based on mutual information," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 214(C).
    11. Fu, Xueqian & Zhang, Xiurong, 2018. "Failure probability estimation of gas supply using the central moment method in an integrated energy system," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 219(C), pages 1-10.
    12. Fu, Xueqian & Zhang, Xiurong & Qiao, Zheng & Li, Gengyin, 2019. "Estimating the failure probability in an integrated energy system considering correlations among failure patterns," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 178(C), pages 656-666.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Fu, Xueqian & Guo, Qinglai & Sun, Hongbin & Zhang, Xiurong & Wang, Li, 2017. "Estimation of the failure probability of an integrated energy system based on the first order reliability method," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 1068-1078.
    2. Chi, Lixun & Su, Huai & Zio, Enrico & Zhang, Jinjun & Li, Xueyi & Zhang, Li & Fan, Lin & Zhou, Jing & Bai, Hua, 2020. "Integrated Deterministic and Probabilistic Safety Analysis of Integrated Energy Systems with bi-directional conversion," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 212(C).
    3. Fu, Xueqian & Sun, Hongbin & Guo, Qinglai & Pan, Zhaoguang & Xiong, Wen & Wang, Li, 2017. "Uncertainty analysis of an integrated energy system based on information theory," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 649-662.
    4. Fu, Xueqian & Li, Gengyin & Zhang, Xiurong & Qiao, Zheng, 2018. "Failure probability estimation of the gas supply using a data-driven model in an integrated energy system," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 232(C), pages 704-714.
    5. Fu, Xueqian & Zhang, Xiurong, 2018. "Failure probability estimation of gas supply using the central moment method in an integrated energy system," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 219(C), pages 1-10.
    6. Fu, Xueqian & Li, Gengyin & Wang, Huaizhi, 2018. "Use of a second-order reliability method to estimate the failure probability of an integrated energy system," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 425-434.
    7. Fu, Xueqian & Zhang, Xiurong, 2019. "Estimation of building energy consumption using weather information derived from photovoltaic power plants," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 130-138.
    8. Karmellos, M. & Georgiou, P.N. & Mavrotas, G., 2019. "A comparison of methods for the optimal design of Distributed Energy Systems under uncertainty," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 178(C), pages 318-333.
    9. Niu, Jide & Tian, Zhe & Lu, Yakai & Zhao, Hongfang & Lan, Bo, 2019. "A robust optimization model for designing the building cooling source under cooling load uncertainty," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 241(C), pages 390-403.
    10. Fu, Xueqian & Zhang, Xiurong & Qiao, Zheng & Li, Gengyin, 2019. "Estimating the failure probability in an integrated energy system considering correlations among failure patterns," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 178(C), pages 656-666.
    11. Fu, Xueqian & Sun, Hongbin & Guo, Qinglai & Pan, Zhaoguang & Zhang, Xiurong & Zeng, Shunqi, 2017. "Probabilistic power flow analysis considering the dependence between power and heat," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 191(C), pages 582-592.
    12. Lai, Sau Man & Hui, Chi Wai, 2009. "Feasibility and flexibility for a trigeneration system," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 34(10), pages 1693-1704.
    13. Morshed, Mohammad Javad & Hmida, Jalel Ben & Fekih, Afef, 2018. "A probabilistic multi-objective approach for power flow optimization in hybrid wind-PV-PEV systems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 211(C), pages 1136-1149.
    14. Yu Liu & Shan Gao & Xin Zhao & Chao Zhang & Ningyu Zhang, 2017. "Coordinated Operation and Control of Combined Electricity and Natural Gas Systems with Thermal Storage," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(7), pages 1-25, July.
    15. Finck, Christian & Li, Rongling & Kramer, Rick & Zeiler, Wim, 2018. "Quantifying demand flexibility of power-to-heat and thermal energy storage in the control of building heating systems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 209(C), pages 409-425.
    16. Yu Huang & Kai Yang & Weiting Zhang & Kwang Y. Lee, 2018. "Hierarchical Energy Management for the MultiEnergy Carriers System with Different Interest Bodies," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-18, October.
    17. Wang, L.X. & Zheng, J.H. & Li, M.S. & Lin, X. & Jing, Z.X. & Wu, P.Z. & Wu, Q.H. & Zhou, X.X., 2019. "Multi-time scale dynamic analysis of integrated energy systems: An individual-based model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 237(C), pages 848-861.
    18. Yidan Song & Qiaoqun Sun & Yu Zhang & Yaodong Da & Heming Dong & Hebo Zhang & Qian Du & Jianmin Gao, 2023. "Modeling and Optimization of Natural Gas CCHP System in the Severe Cold Region," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(12), pages 1-18, June.
    19. Chen, Dongwen & Hu, Xiao & Li, Yong & Abbas, Zulkarnain & Wang, Ruzhu & Li, Dehong, 2023. "Nodal conservation principle of potential energy flow analysis for energy flow calculation in energy internet," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 263(PA).
    20. Chen, Dongwen & Li, Yong & Abbas, Zulkarnain & Li, Dehong & Wang, Ruzhu, 2022. "Network flow calculation based on the directional nodal potential method for meshed heating networks," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 243(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:135:y:2017:i:c:p:153-170. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.