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Quantifying the consensus on anthropogenic global warming in the literature: A re-analysis

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  • Tol, Richard S.J.

Abstract

A claim has been that 97% of the scientific literature endorses anthropogenic climate change (Cook et al., 2013. Environ. Res. Lett. 8, 024024). This claim, frequently repeated in debates about climate policy, does not stand. A trend in composition is mistaken for a trend in endorsement. Reported results are inconsistent and biased. The sample is not representative and contains many irrelevant papers. Overall, data quality is low. Cook׳s validation test shows that the data are invalid. Data disclosure is incomplete so that key results cannot be reproduced or tested.

Suggested Citation

  • Tol, Richard S.J., 2014. "Quantifying the consensus on anthropogenic global warming in the literature: A re-analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 701-705.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:73:y:2014:i:c:p:701-705
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2014.04.045
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. J. Annan & J. Hargreaves, 2011. "On the generation and interpretation of probabilistic estimates of climate sensitivity," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 104(3), pages 423-436, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Havranek, Tomas & Irsova, Zuzana & Janda, Karel & Zilberman, David, 2015. "Selective reporting and the social cost of carbon," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 394-406.
    2. Aliakbari, Elmira & McKitrick, Ross, 2018. "Information aggregation in a prediction market for climate outcomes," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 97-106.
    3. Wang, Zhan & Deng, Xiangzheng & Bai, Yuping & Chen, Jiancheng & Zheng, Wentang, 2016. "Land use structure and emission intensity at regional scale: A case study at the middle reach of the Heihe River basin," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 1581-1593.
    4. repec:spr:endesu:v:19:y:2017:i:4:d:10.1007_s10668-016-9805-8 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. repec:eee:touman:v:47:y:2015:i:c:p:352-356 is not listed on IDEAS

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    Keywords

    Climate change; Consensus; Replication;

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