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Quantifying the consensus on anthropogenic global warming in the literature: A re-analysis


  • Tol, Richard S.J.


A claim has been that 97% of the scientific literature endorses anthropogenic climate change (Cook et al., 2013. Environ. Res. Lett. 8, 024024). This claim, frequently repeated in debates about climate policy, does not stand. A trend in composition is mistaken for a trend in endorsement. Reported results are inconsistent and biased. The sample is not representative and contains many irrelevant papers. Overall, data quality is low. Cook׳s validation test shows that the data are invalid. Data disclosure is incomplete so that key results cannot be reproduced or tested.

Suggested Citation

  • Tol, Richard S.J., 2014. "Quantifying the consensus on anthropogenic global warming in the literature: A re-analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 701-705.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:73:y:2014:i:c:p:701-705
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2014.04.045

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. J. Annan & J. Hargreaves, 2011. "On the generation and interpretation of probabilistic estimates of climate sensitivity," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 104(3), pages 423-436, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Havranek, Tomas & Irsova, Zuzana & Janda, Karel & Zilberman, David, 2015. "Selective reporting and the social cost of carbon," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 394-406.
    2. Aliakbari, Elmira & McKitrick, Ross, 2018. "Information aggregation in a prediction market for climate outcomes," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 97-106.
    3. Junichi Hirose & Koji Kotani & Yoshinori Nakagawa, 2021. "Is Climate Change Induced by Humans? The Impact of the Gap in Perceptions on Cooperation," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 5(3), pages 391-413, October.
    4. Wang, Zhan & Deng, Xiangzheng & Bai, Yuping & Chen, Jiancheng & Zheng, Wentang, 2016. "Land use structure and emission intensity at regional scale: A case study at the middle reach of the Heihe River basin," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 1581-1593.
    5. Federico Pasquaré Mariotto & Corrado Venturini, 2017. "2014, The “year without a summer” in Italy: news media coverage and implications for the climate change debate," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 19(4), pages 1367-1380, August.
    6. Richard S.J. Tol, 2019. "The elusive consensus on climate change," Working Paper Series 0319, Department of Economics, University of Sussex Business School.
    7. Dilger, Alexander, 2020. "Wirtschaftsethische Überlegungen zum Klimawandel," Discussion Papers of the Institute for Organisational Economics 5/2020, University of Münster, Institute for Organisational Economics.
    8. Grant R. McDermott, 2021. "Skeptic priors and climate consensus," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 166(1), pages 1-23, May.
    9. Hall, C. Michael & Amelung, Bas & Cohen, Scott & Eijgelaar, Eke & Gössling, Stefan & Higham, James & Leemans, Rik & Peeters, Paul & Ram, Yael & Scott, Daniel & Aall, Carlo & Abegg, Bruno & Araña, Jorg, 2015. "Denying bogus skepticism in climate change and tourism research," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 352-356.

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