IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ejores/v257y2017i1p243-250.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

On the risk prediction and analysis of soft information in finance reports

Author

Listed:
  • Tsai, Ming-Feng
  • Wang, Chuan-Ju

Abstract

We attempt in this paper to utilize soft information in financial reports to analyze financial risk among companies. Specifically, on the basis of the text information in financial reports, which is the so-called soft information, we apply analytical techniques to study relations between texts and financial risk. Furthermore, we conduct a study on financial sentiment analysis by using a finance-specific sentiment lexicon to examine the relations between financial sentiment words and financial risk. A large collection of financial reports published annually by publicly-traded companies is employed to conduct our experiments; moreover, two analytical techniques – regression and ranking methods – are applied to conduct these analyses. The experimental results show that, based on a bag-of-words model, using only financial sentiment words results in performance comparable to using the whole texts; this confirms the importance of financial sentiment words with respect to risk prediction. In addition to this performance comparison, via the learned models, we draw attention to some strong and interesting correlations between texts and financial risk. These valuable findings yield greater insight and understanding into the usefulness of soft information in financial reports and can be applied to a broad range of financial and accounting applications.

Suggested Citation

  • Tsai, Ming-Feng & Wang, Chuan-Ju, 2017. "On the risk prediction and analysis of soft information in finance reports," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 257(1), pages 243-250.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ejores:v:257:y:2017:i:1:p:243-250
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ejor.2016.06.069
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S037722171630529X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ejor.2016.06.069?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Blasco, Natividad & Corredor, Pilar & Del Rio, Cristina & Santamaria, Rafael, 2005. "Bad news and Dow Jones make the Spanish stocks go round," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 163(1), pages 253-275, May.
    2. Wong, W.K. & Xia, Min & Chu, W.C., 2010. "Adaptive neural network model for time-series forecasting," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 207(2), pages 807-816, December.
    3. Diego García, 2013. "Sentiment during Recessions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 68(3), pages 1267-1300, June.
    4. Price, S. McKay & Doran, James S. & Peterson, David R. & Bliss, Barbara A., 2012. "Earnings conference calls and stock returns: The incremental informativeness of textual tone," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 992-1011.
    5. Peter F. Christoffersen & Francis X. Diebold, 2000. "How Relevant is Volatility Forecasting for Financial Risk Management?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(1), pages 12-22, February.
    6. Polterovich, Victor & Popov, Vladimir, 2006. "Эволюционная Теория Экономической Политики: Часть I: Опыт Быстрого Развития [An Evolutionary Theory of Economic Policy: Part I: The Experience of Fast Development]," MPRA Paper 22168, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Bodyanskiy, Yevgeniy & Popov, Sergiy, 2006. "Neural network approach to forecasting of quasiperiodic financial time series," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 175(3), pages 1357-1366, December.
    8. Laih, Yih-Wenn, 2014. "Measuring rank correlation coefficients between financial time series: A GARCH-copula based sequence alignment algorithm," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 232(2), pages 375-382.
    9. Tim Loughran & Bill Mcdonald, 2011. "When Is a Liability Not a Liability? Textual Analysis, Dictionaries, and 10‐Ks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 66(1), pages 35-65, February.
    10. Balakrishnan, Ramji & Qiu, Xin Ying & Srinivasan, Padmini, 2010. "On the predictive ability of narrative disclosures in annual reports," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 202(3), pages 789-801, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Chao, Xiangrui & Ran, Qin & Chen, Jia & Li, Tie & Qian, Qian & Ergu, Daji, 2022. "Regulatory technology (Reg-Tech) in financial stability supervision: Taxonomy, key methods, applications and future directions," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    2. Kriebel, Johannes & Stitz, Lennart, 2022. "Credit default prediction from user-generated text in peer-to-peer lending using deep learning," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 302(1), pages 309-323.
    3. Lorenzo Reus & Guillermo Alexander Sepúlveda-Hurtado, 2023. "Foreign exchange trading and management with the stochastic dual dynamic programming method," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 9(1), pages 1-38, December.
    4. Matteo Cinelli & Valerio Ficcadenti & Jessica Riccioni, 2021. "The interconnectedness of the economic content in the speeches of the US Presidents," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 299(1), pages 593-615, April.
    5. Michael J Bommarito II & Daniel Martin Katz, 2016. "Measuring the temperature and diversity of the U.S. regulatory ecosystem," Papers 1612.09244, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2017.
    6. Jiang, Cuiqing & Lyu, Ximei & Yuan, Yufei & Wang, Zhao & Ding, Yong, 2022. "Mining semantic features in current reports for financial distress prediction: Empirical evidence from unlisted public firms in China," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 1086-1099.
    7. Dong, Dayong & Yue, Sishi & Cao, Jiawei, 2020. "Site visit information content and return predictability: Evidence from China," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    8. Marui Du & Yue Ma & Zuoquan Zhang, 2021. "A Meta Path Based Evaluation Method for Enterprise Credit Risk," Papers 2110.11594, arXiv.org, revised May 2022.
    9. Feuerriegel, Stefan & Gordon, Julius, 2019. "News-based forecasts of macroeconomic indicators: A semantic path model for interpretable predictions," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 272(1), pages 162-175.
    10. Zhang, Chaowei & Gupta, Ashish & Kauten, Christian & Deokar, Amit V. & Qin, Xiao, 2019. "Detecting fake news for reducing misinformation risks using analytics approaches," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 279(3), pages 1036-1052.
    11. Stevenson, Matthew & Mues, Christophe & Bravo, Cristián, 2021. "The value of text for small business default prediction: A Deep Learning approach," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 295(2), pages 758-771.
    12. Matteo Cinelli & Valerio Ficcadenti & Jessica Riccioni, 2020. "The interconnectedness of the economic content in the speeches of the US Presidents," Papers 2002.07880, arXiv.org.
    13. Agarwal, Arvind & Gupta, Aparna & Kumar, Arun & Tamilselvam, Srikanth G., 2019. "Learning risk culture of banks using news analytics," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 277(2), pages 770-783.
    14. Wang, Chao & Zhang, Yue & Zhang, Weiguo & Gong, Xue, 2021. "Textual sentiment of comments and collapse of P2P platforms: Evidence from China's P2P market," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Matteo Cinelli & Valerio Ficcadenti & Jessica Riccioni, 2020. "The interconnectedness of the economic content in the speeches of the US Presidents," Papers 2002.07880, arXiv.org.
    2. Matteo Cinelli & Valerio Ficcadenti & Jessica Riccioni, 2021. "The interconnectedness of the economic content in the speeches of the US Presidents," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 299(1), pages 593-615, April.
    3. Yan Luo & Linying Zhou, 2020. "Textual tone in corporate financial disclosures: a survey of the literature," International Journal of Disclosure and Governance, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 17(2), pages 101-110, September.
    4. Thomas Renault, 2020. "Sentiment analysis and machine learning in finance: a comparison of methods and models on one million messages," Digital Finance, Springer, vol. 2(1), pages 1-13, September.
    5. D. G. DeBoskey & Yan Luo & Linying Zhou, 2019. "CEO power, board oversight, and earnings announcement tone," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 52(2), pages 657-680, February.
    6. Cang, Shuang & Yu, Hongnian, 2014. "A combination selection algorithm on forecasting," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 234(1), pages 127-139.
    7. Miwa, Kotaro, 2022. "The informational role of analysts’ textual statements," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    8. Tim Loughran & Bill Mcdonald, 2016. "Textual Analysis in Accounting and Finance: A Survey," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 54(4), pages 1187-1230, September.
    9. Ardia, David & Bluteau, Keven & Boudt, Kris, 2022. "Media abnormal tone, earnings announcements, and the stock market," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    10. Bozos, Konstantinos & Nikolopoulos, Konstantinos, 2011. "Forecasting the value effect of seasoned equity offering announcements," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 214(2), pages 418-427, October.
    11. Ingrid E. Fisher & Margaret R. Garnsey & Mark E. Hughes, 2016. "Natural Language Processing in Accounting, Auditing and Finance: A Synthesis of the Literature with a Roadmap for Future Research," Intelligent Systems in Accounting, Finance and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(3), pages 157-214, July.
    12. Bian, Shibo & Jia, Dekui & Li, Ruihai & Sun, Wujun & Yan, Zhipeng & Zheng, Yingfei, 2021. "Can management tone predict IPO performance? – Evidence from mandatory online roadshows in China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    13. Liu, Sha & Han, Jingguang, 2020. "Media tone and expected stock returns," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    14. Chouliaras, Andreas, 2015. "The Pessimism Factor: SEC EDGAR Form 10-K Textual Analysis and Stock Returns," MPRA Paper 65585, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Chen, Yuan & Han, Dongmei & Zhou, Xiaofeng, 2023. "Mining the emotional information in the audio of earnings conference calls : A deep learning approach for sentiment analysis of securities analysts' follow-up behavior," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    16. Gehan A. Mousa & Elsayed A. H. Elamir & Khaled Hussainey, 2022. "Using machine learning methods to predict financial performance: Does disclosure tone matter?," International Journal of Disclosure and Governance, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 19(1), pages 93-112, March.
    17. Gu, Chen & Kurov, Alexander & Wolfe, Marketa Halova, 2018. "Relief Rallies after FOMC Announcements as a Resolution of Uncertainty," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 1-18.
    18. Bennani, Hamza, 2018. "Media coverage and ECB policy-making: Evidence from an augmented Taylor rule," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 26-38.
    19. Kim, Jongkyum & Lim, Jee-Hae & Yoon, Kyunghee, 2022. "How do the content, format, and tone of Twitter-based corporate disclosure vary depending on earnings performance?," International Journal of Accounting Information Systems, Elsevier, vol. 47(C).
    20. Nan Hu & Xingnan Xue & Ling Liu, 2022. "The impact of air pollution on financial reporting quality: evidence from China," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 62(3), pages 3609-3644, September.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ejores:v:257:y:2017:i:1:p:243-250. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eor .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.