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Flexible supply contracts under price uncertainty

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  • Fotopoulos, S.B.
  • Hu, X.
  • Munson, C.L.

Abstract

This article develops supply contracts covering environments with changing prices. We investigate characterization properties of the price processes, while considering costs and discount factors. We determine expressions of the contract's expected low price and its second moment for a given horizon. We then employ these expected price and second moment values to identify an expected optimum time before the contract expires at which the lowest price occurs. Simulation experiments verify our analysis, and they illustrate how the optimum purchase time decreases as the drift term increases.

Suggested Citation

  • Fotopoulos, S.B. & Hu, X. & Munson, C.L., 2008. "Flexible supply contracts under price uncertainty," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 191(1), pages 253-263, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ejores:v:191:y:2008:i:1:p:253-263
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Avinash K. Dixit & Robert S. Pindyck, 1994. "Investment under Uncertainty," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 5474.
    2. Joseph M. Milner & Panos Kouvelis, 2005. "Order Quantity and Timing Flexibility in Supply Chains: The Role of Demand Characteristics," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 51(6), pages 970-985, June.
    3. Chung-Lun Li & Panos Kouvelis, 1999. "Flexible and Risk-Sharing Supply Contracts Under Price Uncertainty," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 45(10), pages 1378-1398, October.
    4. Bardia Kamrad & Akhtar Siddique, 2004. "Supply Contracts, Profit Sharing, Switching, and Reaction Options," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 50(1), pages 64-82, January.
    5. Dufresne, F. & Gerber, H. U., 1993. "The probability of ruin for the Inverse Gaussian and related processes," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 9-22, February.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Hu, Xiangling & Motwani, Jaideep G., 2014. "Minimizing downside risks for global sourcing under price-sensitive stochastic demand, exchange rate uncertainties, and supplier capacity constraints," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 147(PB), pages 398-409.
    3. Gao, Yongling & Driouchi, Tarik & Bennett, David J., 2018. "Ambiguity aversion in buyer-seller relationships: A contingent-claims and social network explanation," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 200(C), pages 50-67.
    4. Xiao, Tiaojun & Qi, Xiangtong, 2010. "Strategic wholesale pricing in a supply chain with a potential entrant," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 202(2), pages 444-455, April.
    5. Zhanping Cheng & Xiaodong Yang & Andy A. Tsay, 2017. "Designing structured supply contracts under demand and price uncertainty in an open supply chain," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 257(1), pages 519-536, October.
    6. Pedrielli, Giulia & Lee, Loo Hay & Ng, Szu Hui, 2015. "Optimal bunkering contract in a buyer–seller supply chain under price and consumption uncertainty," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 77-94.
    7. Xiangling Hu & Charles Munson & Stergios Fotopoulos, 2012. "Purchasing decisions under stochastic prices: Approximate solutions for order time, order quantity and supplier selection," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 201(1), pages 287-305, December.

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