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Trends and structural decomposition of intergenerational absolute income mobility in China: Evidence from Birth cohorts 1961–1988

Author

Listed:
  • Zhao, Chenghao
  • Sun, Yifei
  • Wang, Yiran
  • Wei, Min

Abstract

We estimate the absolute intergenerational income mobility of Chinese individuals born between 1961 and 1988 using two large-scale micro-level datasets, CHFS and CHIP. The results show that overall mobility ranges from 65 % to 85 %, exhibiting an upward trend with cohort fluctuations. To explain the structural sources of these trends, we introduce a decomposition framework that disaggregates mobility into four components: the growth effect, the parental dispersion effect, the offspring dispersion effect, and the rank correlation effect. These capture the roles of economic growth, parental income distribution, income dispersion within the offspring cohort, and intergenerational rank persistence. Heterogeneity analysis shows that recent mobility gains are concentrated among middle- and upper-income groups, while upward mobility channels for women and low-income populations have narrowed. This study provides empirical evidence on the structure of social mobility in transitional China and contributes a developing-country perspective to the international comparative literature on intergenerational mobility.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhao, Chenghao & Sun, Yifei & Wang, Yiran & Wei, Min, 2025. "Trends and structural decomposition of intergenerational absolute income mobility in China: Evidence from Birth cohorts 1961–1988," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 49(4).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecosys:v:49:y:2025:i:4:s0939362525000512
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecosys.2025.101339
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • D63 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - Equity, Justice, Inequality, and Other Normative Criteria and Measurement
    • J62 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Job, Occupational and Intergenerational Mobility; Promotion

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