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Using structural equation models (SEM) to link climate change, forest composition, deer, and outdoor recreation

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  • Bakshi, Baishali
  • Polasky, Stephen
  • Frelich, Lee E.

Abstract

Climate change will likely cause changes in the composition of forests worldwide, with consequent impacts on forest ecosystems and the ecosystem services they provide. In northeastern Minnesota, climate change will likely cause a shift from boreal to temperate forest by the end of the century. Such a shift will affect species populations such as deer and outdoor recreation, a valuable ecosystem service with over $4 billion in annual expenditures in hunting, fishing, and wildlife viewing. In this paper, a structural equation modeling (SEM) framework is used to model four key variables, climate change, deer, forest composition, and outdoor recreation, as an interactive system with data from the Laurentian Mixed Forest (LMF) region of Minnesota. A series of SEM models of increasing complexity are used to draw out the individual and system level effects. The results show: a strong empirical relationship between forest composition and recreation; climate affects both forest composition and recreation, mainly through temperature effects; deer affects both forest composition and recreation. A systems modeling approach like SEM is needed because there are important complex interactions, such as the effect of deer on forest composition and of forest composition on deer.

Suggested Citation

  • Bakshi, Baishali & Polasky, Stephen & Frelich, Lee E., 2024. "Using structural equation models (SEM) to link climate change, forest composition, deer, and outdoor recreation," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 493(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:493:y:2024:i:c:s0304380024001194
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110731
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Agimass, Fitalew & Lundhede, Thomas & Panduro, Toke Emil & Jacobsen, Jette Bredahl, 2018. "The choice of forest site for recreation: A revealed preference analysis using spatial data," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 31(PC), pages 445-454.
    2. Filyushkina, Anna & Agimass, Fitalew & Lundhede, Thomas & Strange, Niels & Jacobsen, Jette Bredahl, 2017. "Preferences for variation in forest characteristics: Does diversity between stands matter?," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(C), pages 22-29.
    3. Melo-Merino, Sara M. & Reyes-Bonilla, Héctor & Lira-Noriega, Andrés, 2020. "Ecological niche models and species distribution models in marine environments: A literature review and spatial analysis of evidence," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 415(C).
    4. Peter B. Reich & Kerrie M. Sendall & Artur Stefanski & Roy L. Rich & Sarah E. Hobbie & Rebecca A. Montgomery, 2018. "Effects of climate warming on photosynthesis in boreal tree species depend on soil moisture," Nature, Nature, vol. 562(7726), pages 263-267, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Chang You & Chunqian Jiang & En Liu, 2024. "Exploring Farmers’ Perspectives on Ecosystem Degradation and Restoration in Southern Hilly Regions of China," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(10), pages 1-18, September.

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