IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecomod/v387y2018icp38-48.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The annual abundance of dengue and Zika vector Aedes albopictus and its stubbornness to suppression

Author

Listed:
  • Zheng, Bo
  • Yu, Jianshe
  • Xi, Zhiyong
  • Tang, Moxun

Abstract

The mosquito Aedes albopictus is a competent vector for more than 25 arboviruses, including dengue and Zika, and the sole vector for the 2014 unprecedented dengue outbreak in southern China. Due to the lack of a deep understanding of how its seasonal abundance is tied to environments, current methods have failed to control its prevalence and expansion on a large scale. In this paper, we develop a comprehensive model of difference equations that incorporates mosquito age at the four developmental stages, egg diapause, larval density competition, and the meteorological data for temperature, precipitation, and humidity, to predict the mosquito abundance over time in southern China. The generated temporal profile is robust against the variation of initial inputs, and matches well with the measurements in a northeast district in Guangzhou in 2013 and 2014 with a correlation coefficient R2 ≈ 0.9511. We find that chemical interventions have only a temporary effect; once the intervention is terminated, mosquito population bounces back quickly. Moreover, improper adulticide applications facilitate a fast spread of insecticide resistance. The resistance spread is quantified and the optimal intensity and frequency of chemical interventions are simulated. These findings remain to be tested by more real data and our methods can be adapted to other geographic areas and/or mosquito species for designing better mosquito control strategies.

Suggested Citation

  • Zheng, Bo & Yu, Jianshe & Xi, Zhiyong & Tang, Moxun, 2018. "The annual abundance of dengue and Zika vector Aedes albopictus and its stubbornness to suppression," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 387(C), pages 38-48.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:387:y:2018:i:c:p:38-48
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2018.09.004
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304380018302928
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2018.09.004?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. M. Petrić & B. Lalić & E. Ducheyne & V. Djurdjević & D. Petrić, 2017. "Modelling the regional impact of climate change on the suitability of the establishment of the Asian tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus) in Serbia," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 142(3), pages 361-374, June.
    2. Cailly, Priscilla & Tran, Annelise & Balenghien, Thomas & L’Ambert, Grégory & Toty, Céline & Ezanno, Pauline, 2012. "A climate-driven abundance model to assess mosquito control strategies," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 227(C), pages 7-17.
    3. Erickson, Richard A. & Presley, Steven M. & Allen, Linda J.S. & Long, Kevin R. & Cox, Stephen B., 2010. "A stage-structured, Aedes albopictus population model," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 221(9), pages 1273-1282.
    4. Andrew J. Monaghan & K. M. Sampson & D. F. Steinhoff & K. C. Ernst & K. L. Ebi & B. Jones & M. H. Hayden, 2018. "The potential impacts of 21st century climatic and population changes on human exposure to the virus vector mosquito Aedes aegypti," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 146(3), pages 487-500, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Lijie Chang & Yantao Shi & Bo Zheng, 2021. "Existence and Uniqueness of Nontrivial Periodic Solutions to a Discrete Switching Model," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(19), pages 1-13, September.
    2. Virgillito, Chiara & Manica, Mattia & Marini, Giovanni & Caputo, Beniamino & Torre, Alessandra della & Rosà, Roberto, 2021. "Modelling arthropod active dispersal using Partial differential equations: the case of the mosquito Aedes albopictus," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 456(C).
    3. Qiming Huang & Lijie Chang & Zhaowang Zhang & Bo Zheng, 2023. "Global Dynamics for Competition between Two Wolbachia Strains with Bidirectional Cytoplasmic Incompatibility," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(7), pages 1-21, April.
    4. Xingtong Liu & Yuanshun Tan & Bo Zheng, 2022. "Dynamic Behavior of an Interactive Mosquito Model under Stochastic Interference," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(13), pages 1-18, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Giovanni Marini & Piero Poletti & Mario Giacobini & Andrea Pugliese & Stefano Merler & Roberto Rosà, 2016. "The Role of Climatic and Density Dependent Factors in Shaping Mosquito Population Dynamics: The Case of Culex pipiens in Northwestern Italy," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(4), pages 1-15, April.
    2. Rebeca de Jesús Crespo & Madison Harrison & Rachel Rogers & Randy Vaeth, 2021. "Mosquito Vector Production across Socio-Economic Divides in Baton Rouge, Louisiana," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(4), pages 1-11, February.
    3. Erickson, Richard A. & Presley, Steven M. & Allen, Linda J.S. & Long, Kevin R. & Cox, Stephen B., 2010. "A dengue model with a dynamic Aedes albopictus vector population," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 221(24), pages 2899-2908.
    4. Jian, Yun & Silvestri, Sonia & Belluco, Enrica & Saltarin, Andrea & Chillemi, Giovanni & Marani, Marco, 2014. "Environmental forcing and density-dependent controls of Culex pipiens abundance in a temperate climate (Northeastern Italy)," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 272(C), pages 301-310.
    5. Guillaume Rohat & Johannes Flacke & Hy Dao & Martin Maarseveen, 2018. "Co-use of existing scenario sets to extend and quantify the shared socioeconomic pathways," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 151(3), pages 619-636, December.
    6. Haocheng Wu & Chen Wu & Qinbao Lu & Zheyuan Ding & Ming Xue & Junfen Lin, 2019. "Evaluating the effects of control interventions and estimating the inapparent infections for dengue outbreak in Hangzhou, China," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(8), pages 1-16, August.
    7. LonÄ arić, Željka & K. Hackenberger, Branimir, 2013. "Stage and age structured Aedes vexans and Culex pipiens (Diptera: Culicidae) climate-dependent matrix population model," Theoretical Population Biology, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 82-94.
    8. Josef Zapletal & Himanshu Gupta & Madhav Erraguntla & Zach N Adelman & Kevin M Myles & Mark A Lawley, 2019. "Predicting aquatic development and mortality rates of Aedes aegypti," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(5), pages 1-8, May.
    9. Abdalgader, Tarteel & Banerjee, Malay & Zhang, Lai, 2022. "Spatially weak syncronization of spreading pattern between Aedes Albopictus and dengue fever," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 473(C).
    10. Anwar Musah & Livia Màrcia Mosso Dutra & Aisha Aldosery & Ella Browning & Tercio Ambrizzi & Iuri Valerio Graciano Borges & Merve Tunali & Selma Başibüyük & Orhan Yenigün & Giselle Machado Magalhaes Mo, 2022. "An Evaluation of the OpenWeatherMap API versus INMET Using Weather Data from Two Brazilian Cities: Recife and Campina Grande," Data, MDPI, vol. 7(8), pages 1-13, July.
    11. Lena Reimann & Bryan Jones & Nora Bieker & Claudia Wolff & Jeroen C.J.H. Aerts & Athanasios T. Vafeidis, 2023. "Exploring spatial feedbacks between adaptation policies and internal migration patterns due to sea-level rise," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-14, December.
    12. Walker, Melody & Robert, Michael A. & Childs, Lauren M., 2021. "The importance of density dependence in juvenile mosquito development and survival: A model-based investigation," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 440(C).
    13. Rodrigue, Michelle & Romi, Andrea M., 2022. "Environmental escalations to social inequities: Some reflections on the tumultuous state of Gaia," CRITICAL PERSPECTIVES ON ACCOUNTING, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    14. Josef Zapletal & Madhav Erraguntla & Zach N Adelman & Kevin M Myles & Mark A Lawley, 2018. "Impacts of diurnal temperature and larval density on aquatic development of Aedes aegypti," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(3), pages 1-16, March.
    15. Haramboure, Marion & Labbé, Pierrick & Baldet, Thierry & Damiens, David & Gouagna, Louis Clément & Bouyer, Jérémy & Tran, Annelise, 2020. "Modelling the control of Aedes albopictus mosquitoes based on sterile males release techniques in a tropical environment," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 424(C).
    16. Lingcai Kong & Jinfeng Wang & Zhongjie Li & Shengjie Lai & Qiyong Liu & Haixia Wu & Weizhong Yang, 2018. "Modeling the Heterogeneity of Dengue Transmission in a City," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 15(6), pages 1-21, May.
    17. Guillaume Rohat, 2018. "Projecting Drivers of Human Vulnerability under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 15(3), pages 1-23, March.
    18. Stefan Schindler & Wolfgang Rabitsch & Franz Essl & Peter Wallner & Kathrin Lemmerer & Swen Follak & Hans-Peter Hutter, 2018. "Alien Species and Human Health: Austrian Stakeholder Perspective on Challenges and Solutions," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 15(11), pages 1-11, November.
    19. Annelise Tran & Grégory L'Ambert & Guillaume Lacour & Romain Benoît & Marie Demarchi & Myriam Cros & Priscilla Cailly & Mélaine Aubry-Kientz & Thomas Balenghien & Pauline Ezanno, 2013. "A Rainfall- and Temperature-Driven Abundance Model for Aedes albopictus Populations," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 10(5), pages 1-22, April.
    20. Hamidreza Zoraghein & Brian C. O’Neill, 2020. "U.S. State-level Projections of the Spatial Distribution of Population Consistent with Shared Socioeconomic Pathways," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(8), pages 1-26, April.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:387:y:2018:i:c:p:38-48. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/ecological-modelling .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.