IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecomod/v360y2017icp399-409.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The importance of interspecific competition in the actual and future distributions of plant species assessed by a 2-D grid agent modelling

Author

Listed:
  • Vitale, Marcello
  • Lorenzetti, Silvia
  • Francesconi, Fabio
  • Attorre, Fabio
  • Di Traglia, Mario

Abstract

Currently, potential distribution of plant species is represented by different uses of presence/absence indicators or by density-dominance-based ones such as the Importance Value (I.V.), and their geographical representation is based on statistical models (Random forest model, General Regression Models etc.) relating these indicators with climate and physical features of a given territory. Here, we have built an integrated model which is able to link climate, physical features of territory and inter-specific competition at aiming to simulate potential distribution of eight plant species (Quercus cerris, Quercus pubescens, Fraxinus ornus, Fraxinus excelsior, Acer campestre, Acer obtusatum, Ostrya carpinifolia and Carpinus betulus) either at actual climate conditions or future ones (B1 and A2 climatic scenarios; IPCC, 2013). The integrated model is based on innovative methodological approach, which combined statistical tools (Principal Component Analyses and Discretization) and two-dimensional grid based model to consider the interactive effects of climate and inter-specific competition on plant species distribution. The study case was given by geographical spatialisation of the I.V. for each considered plant species, in the overall Italian territory. The simulations had always occurred by taking into consideration both expected climate change and inter-specific competition under highly complexity terrains. The results substantially differed from other studies that used only environmental predictors for estimating potential plant distributions. Variations in the I.V. distribution seemed to be due to variations of relative competitive abilities of plants, reducing both local extinctions of some species in Southern and Central Italy and migration toward North. Furthermore, our simulations suggested that under pressure of climate change the competitive ability of plant species will be likely affected by reducing the effects of competitive asymmetry.

Suggested Citation

  • Vitale, Marcello & Lorenzetti, Silvia & Francesconi, Fabio & Attorre, Fabio & Di Traglia, Mario, 2017. "The importance of interspecific competition in the actual and future distributions of plant species assessed by a 2-D grid agent modelling," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 360(C), pages 399-409.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:360:y:2017:i:c:p:399-409
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2017.07.027
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304380017301783
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2017.07.027?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Di Traglia, Mario & Attorre, Fabio & Francesconi, Fabio & Valenti, Roberto & Vitale, Marcello, 2011. "Is cellular automata algorithm able to predict the future dynamical shifts of tree species in Italy under climate change scenarios? A methodological approach," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 222(4), pages 925-934.
    2. Camille Parmesan & Gary Yohe, 2003. "A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change impacts across natural systems," Nature, Nature, vol. 421(6918), pages 37-42, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Richard Tol, 2011. "Regulating knowledge monopolies: the case of the IPCC," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 108(4), pages 827-839, October.
    2. Ding, Yimin & Wang, Weiguang & Song, Ruiming & Shao, Quanxi & Jiao, Xiyun & Xing, Wanqiu, 2017. "Modeling spatial and temporal variability of the impact of climate change on rice irrigation water requirements in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, China," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 193(C), pages 89-101.
    3. Anne Goodenough & Adam Hart, 2013. "Correlates of vulnerability to climate-induced distribution changes in European avifauna: habitat, migration and endemism," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 118(3), pages 659-669, June.
    4. Francesca Pilotto & Ingolf Kühn & Rita Adrian & Renate Alber & Audrey Alignier & Christopher Andrews & Jaana Bäck & Luc Barbaro & Deborah Beaumont & Natalie Beenaerts & Sue Benham & David S. Boukal & , 2020. "Meta-analysis of multidecadal biodiversity trends in Europe," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 11(1), pages 1-11, December.
    5. Wesley R. Brooks & Stephen C. Newbold, 2013. "Ecosystem damages in integrated assessment models of climate change," NCEE Working Paper Series 201302, National Center for Environmental Economics, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, revised Mar 2013.
    6. Hao Wang & Guohua Liu & Zongshan Li & Xin Ye & Bojie Fu & Yihe Lü, 2017. "Analysis of the Driving Forces in Vegetation Variation in the Grain for Green Program Region, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(10), pages 1-14, October.
    7. Fabina, Nicholas S. & Abbott, Karen C. & Gilman, R.Tucker, 2010. "Sensitivity of plant–pollinator–herbivore communities to changes in phenology," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 221(3), pages 453-458.
    8. Xiumei Wang & Jianjun Dong & Taogetao Baoyin & Yuhai Bao, 2019. "Estimation and Climate Factor Contribution of Aboveground Biomass in Inner Mongolia’s Typical/Desert Steppes," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(23), pages 1-15, November.
    9. Anna Yusa & Peter Berry & June J.Cheng & Nicholas Ogden & Barrie Bonsal & Ronald Stewart & Ruth Waldick, 2015. "Climate Change, Drought and Human Health in Canada," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 12(7), pages 1-54, July.
    10. A. Ogden & J. Innes, 2008. "Climate change adaptation and regional forest planning in southern Yukon, Canada," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 13(8), pages 833-861, October.
    11. Ye, Qing & Yang, Xiaoguang & Dai, Shuwei & Chen, Guangsheng & Li, Yong & Zhang, Caixia, 2015. "Effects of climate change on suitable rice cropping areas, cropping systems and crop water requirements in southern China," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 35-44.
    12. Brandt, Laura A. & Benscoter, Allison M. & Harvey, Rebecca & Speroterra, Carolina & Bucklin, David & Romañach, Stephanie S. & Watling, James I. & Mazzotti, Frank J., 2017. "Comparison of climate envelope models developed using expert-selected variables versus statistical selection," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 345(C), pages 10-20.
    13. Prem B. Parajuli & Priyantha Jayakody & Ying Ouyang, 2018. "Evaluation of Using Remote Sensing Evapotranspiration Data in SWAT," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(3), pages 985-996, February.
    14. Fullman, Timothy J. & Bunting, Erin L. & Kiker, Gregory A. & Southworth, Jane, 2017. "Predicting shifts in large herbivore distributions under climate change and management using a spatially-explicit ecosystem model," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 352(C), pages 1-18.
    15. -, 2018. "Climate Change in Central America: Potential Impacts and Public Policy Options," Sede Subregional de la CEPAL en México (Estudios e Investigaciones) 39150, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    16. Debora Sotto & Arlindo Philippi & Tan Yigitcanlar & Md Kamruzzaman, 2019. "Aligning Urban Policy with Climate Action in the Global South: Are Brazilian Cities Considering Climate Emergency in Local Planning Practice?," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(18), pages 1-31, September.
    17. Baris Karapinar & Gökhan Özertan, 2020. "Yield implications of date and cultivar adaptation to wheat phenological shifts: a survey of farmers in Turkey," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 158(3), pages 453-472, February.
    18. Zhang, Jiarui & Jørgensen, Sven E. & Lu, Jianjian & Nielsen, Søren N. & Wang, Qiang, 2014. "A model for the contribution of macrophyte-derived organic carbon in harvested tidal freshwater marshes to surrounding estuarine and oceanic ecosystems and its response to global warming," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 294(C), pages 105-116.
    19. Annie Paradis & Joe Elkinton & Katharine Hayhoe & John Buonaccorsi, 2008. "Role of winter temperature and climate change on the survival and future range expansion of the hemlock woolly adelgid (Adelges tsugae) in eastern North America," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 13(5), pages 541-554, June.
    20. -, 2015. "The Economics of Climate Change in Central America: Summary 2012," Sede Subregional de la CEPAL en México (Estudios e Investigaciones) 39089, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:360:y:2017:i:c:p:399-409. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/ecological-modelling .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.