IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecomod/v325y2016icp57-66.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Structural uncertainty in projecting global fisheries catches under climate change

Author

Listed:
  • Cheung, William W.L.
  • Jones, Miranda C.
  • Reygondeau, Gabriel
  • Stock, Charles A.
  • Lam, Vicky W.Y.
  • Frölicher, Thomas L.

Abstract

The global ocean is projected to be warmer, less oxygenated and more acidic in the 21st century relative to the present day, resulting in changes in the biogeography and productivity of marine organisms and ecosystems. Previous studies using a Dynamic Bioclimate Envelope Model (DBEM) projected increases in potential catch in high latitude regions and decreases in tropical regions over the next few decades. A major structural uncertainty of the projected redistribution of species and fisheries catches can be attributed to the habitat suitability algorithms used. Here, we compare the DBEM projections of potential catches of 500 species of exploited marine fishes and invertebrates from 1971 to 2060 using three versions of DBEM that differ by the algorithm used to predict relative habitat suitability: DBEM-Basic, DBEM-Maxent and DBEM-Aquamaps. All the DBEM models have similar skill in predicting the occurrence of exploited species and distribution of observed fisheries production. Globally, the models project a decrease in catch potential of 3% to 13% by 2050 under a high emissions scenario (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5). For the majority of the modelled species, projections by DBEM-Maxent are less sensitive to changes in ocean properties than those by DBEM-Aquamaps. The mean magnitude of projected changes relative to differences between projections differ between regions, being highest (>1 times the standard deviation) in the tropical regions and Arctic Ocean and lowest in three of the main Eastern Boundary Upwelling regions, the eastern Indian Ocean and the Southern Ocean. These results suggest that the qualitative patterns of changes in catch potential reported in previous studies are not affected by the structural uncertainty of DBEM, particularly in areas where catch potential was projected to be most sensitive to climate change. However, when making projections of fish stocks and their potential catches using DBEM in the future, multiple versions of DBEM should be used to quantify the uncertainty associated with structural uncertainty of the models. Overall, this study contributes to improving projection of future changes in living marine resources by exploring one aspect of the cascade of uncertainty associated with such projections.

Suggested Citation

  • Cheung, William W.L. & Jones, Miranda C. & Reygondeau, Gabriel & Stock, Charles A. & Lam, Vicky W.Y. & Frölicher, Thomas L., 2016. "Structural uncertainty in projecting global fisheries catches under climate change," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 325(C), pages 57-66.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:325:y:2016:i:c:p:57-66
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2015.12.018
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304380016000053
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2015.12.018?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. William W. L. Cheung & Jorge L. Sarmiento & John Dunne & Thomas L. Frölicher & Vicky W. Y. Lam & M. L. Deng Palomares & Reg Watson & Daniel Pauly, 2013. "Shrinking of fishes exacerbates impacts of global ocean changes on marine ecosystems," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 3(3), pages 254-258, March.
    2. Grégory Beaugrand & Martin Edwards & Virginie Raybaud & Eric Goberville & Richard R. Kirby, 2015. "Future vulnerability of marine biodiversity compared with contemporary and past changes," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 5(7), pages 695-701, July.
    3. Elvira S. Poloczanska & Christopher J. Brown & William J. Sydeman & Wolfgang Kiessling & David S. Schoeman & Pippa J. Moore & Keith Brander & John F. Bruno & Lauren B. Buckley & Michael T. Burrows & C, 2013. "Global imprint of climate change on marine life," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 3(10), pages 919-925, October.
    4. Ready, Jonathan & Kaschner, Kristin & South, Andy B. & Eastwood, Paul D. & Rees, Tony & Rius, Josephine & Agbayani, Eli & Kullander, Sven & Froese, Rainer, 2010. "Predicting the distributions of marine organisms at the global scale," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 221(3), pages 467-478.
    5. Jones, Miranda C. & Dye, Stephen R. & Pinnegar, John K. & Warren, Rachel & Cheung, William W.L., 2012. "Modelling commercial fish distributions: Prediction and assessment using different approaches," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 225(C), pages 133-145.
    6. M. Barange & G. Merino & J. L. Blanchard & J. Scholtens & J. Harle & E. H. Allison & J. I. Allen & J. Holt & S. Jennings, 2014. "Impacts of climate change on marine ecosystem production in societies dependent on fisheries," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 4(3), pages 211-216, March.
    7. William W. L. Cheung & Reg Watson & Daniel Pauly, 2013. "Signature of ocean warming in global fisheries catch," Nature, Nature, vol. 497(7449), pages 365-368, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Talent Ndlovu & Sylvain Charlebois, 2020. "Impacts of Climate Change: Can Fisheries and Aquaculture Sectors Survive the Wave?," International Journal of Global Sustainability, Macrothink Institute, vol. 4(1), pages 78-90, December.
    2. Walter Leal Filho & Robert Stojanov & Franziska Wolf & Newton R. Matandirotya & Christian Ploberger & Desalegn Y. Ayal & Fardous Mohammad Safiul Azam & Tareq Mohammed Ali AL-Ahdal & Rebecca Sarku & No, 2022. "Assessing Uncertainties in Climate Change Adaptation and Land Management," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-15, December.
    3. Brian Pentz & Nicole Klenk, 2020. "Understanding the limitations of current RFMO climate change adaptation strategies: the case of the IATTC and the Eastern Pacific Ocean," International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 20(1), pages 21-39, March.
    4. Ruth Beatriz Mezzalira Pincinato & Frank Asche & Atle Oglend, 2020. "Climate change and small pelagic fish price volatility," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 161(4), pages 591-599, August.
    5. Talya ten Brink, 2023. "Projections of Economic Impacts of Climate Change on Marine Protected Areas: Palau, the Great Barrier Reef, and the Bering Sea," Papers 2309.02323, arXiv.org.
    6. Micheli D. P. Costa & Kerrie A. Wilson & Philip J. Dyer & Roland Pitcher & José H. Muelbert & Anthony J. Richardson, 2021. "Potential future climate-induced shifts in marine fish larvae and harvested fish communities in the subtropical southwestern Atlantic Ocean," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 165(3), pages 1-21, April.
    7. Jyun-Long Chen, 2021. "Fishers’ perceptions and adaptation on climate change in northeastern Taiwan," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(1), pages 611-634, January.
    8. Daiju Narita & Hans-Otto Poertner & Katrin Rehdanz, 2020. "Accounting for risk transitions of ocean ecosystems under climate change: an economic justification for more ambitious policy responses," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 162(1), pages 1-11, September.
    9. Pinto, Miguel & Albo-Puigserver, Marta & Bueno-Pardo, Juan & Monteiro, João Nuno & Teodósio, Maria Alexandra & Leitão, Francisco, 2023. "Eco-socio-economic vulnerability assessment of Portuguese fisheries to climate change," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 212(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Tai, Travis C. & Harley, Christopher D.G. & Cheung, William W.L., 2018. "Comparing model parameterizations of the biophysical impacts of ocean acidification to identify limitations and uncertainties," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 385(C), pages 1-11.
    2. Gormley, Kate S.G. & Hull, Angela D. & Porter, Joanne S. & Bell, Michael C. & Sanderson, William G., 2015. "Adaptive management, international co-operation and planning for marine conservation hotspots in a changing climate," Marine Policy, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 54-66.
    3. Melo-Merino, Sara M. & Reyes-Bonilla, Héctor & Lira-Noriega, Andrés, 2020. "Ecological niche models and species distribution models in marine environments: A literature review and spatial analysis of evidence," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 415(C).
    4. Heenan, Adel & Pomeroy, Robert & Bell, Johann & Munday, Philip L. & Cheung, William & Logan, Cheryl & Brainard, Russell & Yang Amri, Affendi & Aliño, Porfirio & Armada, Nygiel & David, Laura & Rivera-, 2015. "A climate-informed, ecosystem approach to fisheries management," Marine Policy, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 182-192.
    5. Coro, Gianpaolo & Magliozzi, Chiara & Vanden Berghe, Edward & Bailly, Nicolas & Ellenbroek, Anton & Pagano, Pasquale, 2016. "Estimating absence locations of marine species from data of scientific surveys in OBIS," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 323(C), pages 61-76.
    6. Martín-García, Laura & González-Lorenzo, Gustavo & Brito-Izquierdo, Isabel T. & Barquín-Diez, Jacinto, 2013. "Use of topographic predictors for macrobenthic community mapping in the Marine Reserve of La Palma (Canary Islands, Spain)," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 263(C), pages 19-31.
    7. F J Heather & D Z Childs & A M Darnaude & J L Blanchard, 2018. "Using an integral projection model to assess the effect of temperature on the growth of gilthead seabream Sparus aurata," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(5), pages 1-19, May.
    8. Abdunnur Abdunnur, 2020. "Nexus of Fisheries and Agriculture Production and Urbanization on Ecological Footprint: New Evidence from Indonesian Economy," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 10(3), pages 190-195.
    9. Evangelos Tzanatos & Dionysios Raitsos & George Triantafyllou & Stylianos Somarakis & Anastasios Tsonis, 2014. "Indications of a climate effect on Mediterranean fisheries," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(1), pages 41-54, January.
    10. Andrew J Allyn & Michael A Alexander & Bradley S Franklin & Felix Massiot-Granier & Andrew J Pershing & James D Scott & Katherine E Mills, 2020. "Comparing and synthesizing quantitative distribution models and qualitative vulnerability assessments to project marine species distributions under climate change," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(4), pages 1-28, April.
    11. Mariana Fuentes & Lynda Chambers & Andrew Chin & Peter Dann & Kirstin Dobbs & Helene Marsh & Elvira Poloczanska & Kim Maison & Malcolm Turner & Robert Pressey, 2016. "Adaptive management of marine mega-fauna in a changing climate," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 21(2), pages 209-224, February.
    12. Achwak Benazza & Jonathan Selleslagh & Elsa Breton & Khalef Rabhi & Vincent Cornille & Mahmoud Bacha & Eric Lecuyer & Rachid Amara, 2015. "Environmental Control on Fish and Macrocrustacean Spring Community-Structure, on an Intertidal Sandy Beach," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(1), pages 1-19, January.
    13. Qi Chen & Weiteng Shen & Bing Yu, 2018. "Assessing the Vulnerability of Marine Fisheries in China: Towards an Inter-Provincial Perspective," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-14, November.
    14. Gretta Pecl & Tim Ward & Zoë Doubleday & Steven Clarke & Jemery Day & Cameron Dixon & Stewart Frusher & Philip Gibbs & Alistair Hobday & Neil Hutchinson & Sarah Jennings & Keith Jones & Xiaoxu Li & Da, 2014. "Rapid assessment of fisheries species sensitivity to climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 127(3), pages 505-520, December.
    15. Coro, Gianpaolo & Pagano, Pasquale & Ellenbroek, Anton, 2013. "Combining simulated expert knowledge with Neural Networks to produce Ecological Niche Models for Latimeria chalumnae," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 268(C), pages 55-63.
    16. Lancker, Kira & Fricke, Lorena & Schmidt, Jörn O., 2019. "Assessing the contribution of artisanal fisheries to food security: A bio-economic modeling approach," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 1-1.
    17. Kaiser, Brooks A. & Bakanev, Sergey & Bertelsen, Rasmus Gjedsø & Carson, Marcus & Eide, Arne & Fernandez, Linda & Halpin, Patrick & Izmalkov, Sergei & Kyhn, Line A. & Österblom, Henrik & Punt, Maarten, 2015. "Spatial issues in Arctic marine resource governance workshop summary and comment," Marine Policy, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 1-5.
    18. Disha Sachan & Pankaj Kumar & Md. Saquib Saharwardi, 2022. "Contemporary climate change velocity for near-surface temperatures over India," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 173(3), pages 1-19, August.
    19. Jake F. Weltzin & Julio L. Betancourt & Benjamin I. Cook & Theresa M. Crimmins & Carolyn A. F. Enquist & Michael D. Gerst & John E. Gross & Geoffrey M. Henebry & Rebecca A. Hufft & Melissa A. Kenney &, 2020. "Seasonality of biological and physical systems as indicators of climatic variation and change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 163(4), pages 1755-1771, December.
    20. M. W. Pedersen & A. Kokkalis & H. Bardarson & S. Bonanomi & W. J. Boonstra & W. E. Butler & F. K. Diekert & N. Fouzai & M. Holma & R. E. Holt & K. Ø. Kvile & E. Nieminen & K. M. Ottosen & A. Richter &, 2016. "Trends in marine climate change research in the Nordic region since the first IPCC report," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 134(1), pages 147-161, January.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:325:y:2016:i:c:p:57-66. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/ecological-modelling .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.