IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecomod/v220y2009i17p2076-2087.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Impact of climate change on soil moisture dynamics in Brandenburg with a focus on nature conservation areas

Author

Listed:
  • Holsten, Anne
  • Vetter, Tobias
  • Vohland, Katrin
  • Krysanova, Valentina

Abstract

Global warming impacts the water cycle not only by changing regional precipitation levels and temporal variability, but also by affecting water flows and soil moisture dynamics. In Brandenburg, increasing average annual temperature and decreasing precipitation in summer have already been observed. For this study, past trends and future effects of climate change on soil moisture dynamics in Brandenburg were investigated, considering regional and specific spatial impacts. Special Areas of Conservation (SACs) were focused on in particular. A decreasing trend in soil water content was shown for the past by analyzing simulation results from 1951 to 2003 using the integrated ecohydrological model SWIM [Krysanova, V., Müller-Wohlfeil, D.-I., Becker, A., 1998. Development and test of a spatially distributed hydrological/water quality model for mesoscale watersheds. Ecol. Model. 106, 261–289]. The trend was statistically significant for some areas, but not for the entire region. Simulated soil water content was particularly low in the extremely dry year 2003. Comparisons of simulated trends in soil moisture dynamics with trends in the average annual Palmer Drought Severity Index for the region showed largely congruent patterns, though the modeled soil moisture trends are characterized by a much higher spatial resolution. Regionally downscaled climate change projections representing the range between wetter and drier realizations were used to evaluate future trends of available soil water. A further decrease of average available soil water ranging from −4% to −15% was projected for all climate realizations up to the middle of the 21st century. An average decrease of more than 25mm was simulated for 34% of the total area in the dry realization. Available soil water contents in SACs were generally higher and trends in soil moisture dynamics were lower mainly due to their favorable edaphic conditions. Stronger absolute and relative changes in the simulated trends for the past and future were shown for SACs within Brandenburg than for the state as a whole, indicating a high level of risk for many wetland areas. Nonetheless, soil water content in SACs is expected to remain higher than average under climate change conditions as well, and SACs therefore have an important buffer function under the projected climate change. They are thus essential for local climate and water regulation and their status as protected areas in Brandenburg should be preserved.

Suggested Citation

  • Holsten, Anne & Vetter, Tobias & Vohland, Katrin & Krysanova, Valentina, 2009. "Impact of climate change on soil moisture dynamics in Brandenburg with a focus on nature conservation areas," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 220(17), pages 2076-2087.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:220:y:2009:i:17:p:2076-2087
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2009.04.038
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304380009002890
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2009.04.038?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bormann, Helge & Breuer, Lutz & Gräff, Thomas & Huisman, Johan A., 2007. "Analysing the effects of soil properties changes associated with land use changes on the simulated water balance: A comparison of three hydrological catchment models for scenario analysis," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 209(1), pages 29-40.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. MB Dastagiri & Anjani Sneha Vajrala, 2018. "Financing Climate Change on Global Agriculture-An Overview," International Journal of Environmental Sciences & Natural Resources, Juniper Publishers Inc., vol. 12(5), pages 148-153, July.
    2. Sumaiya Jarin Ahammed & Rajab Homsi & Najeebullah Khan & Shamsuddin Shahid & Mohammed Sanusi Shiru & Morteza Mohsenipour & Kamal Ahmed & Nadeem Nawaz & Nor Eliza Alias & Ali Yuzir, 2020. "Assessment of changing pattern of crop water stress in Bangladesh," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 22(5), pages 4619-4637, June.
    3. Fouad H. Saeed & Mahmoud S. Al-Khafaji & Furat A. Mahmood Al-Faraj, 2021. "Sensitivity of Irrigation Water Requirement to Climate Change in Arid and Semi-Arid Regions towards Sustainable Management of Water Resources," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(24), pages 1-21, December.
    4. Hlavinka, Petr & Trnka, Miroslav & Balek, Jan & Semerádová, Daniela & Hayes, Michael & Svoboda, Mark & Eitzinger, Josef & Mozný, Martin & Fischer, Milan & Hunt, Eric & Zalud, Zdenek, 2011. "Development and evaluation of the SoilClim model for water balance and soil climate estimates," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 98(8), pages 1249-1261, May.
    5. Yuyan Liu & Fei Shi & Xuan Liu & Zihui Zhao & Yongtao Jin & Yulin Zhan & Xia Zhu & Wei Luo & Wenhao Zhang & Yuefang Sun & Xuqing Li & Yancang Wang, 2022. "Influence of Different Meteorological Factors on the Accuracy of Back Propagation Neural Network Simulation of Soil Moisture in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(24), pages 1-23, December.
    6. Agathos Filintas & Nikolaos Gougoulias & Nektarios Kourgialas & Eleni Hatzichristou, 2023. "Management Soil Zones, Irrigation, and Fertigation Effects on Yield and Oil Content of Coriandrum sativum L. Using Precision Agriculture with Fuzzy k-Means Clustering," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(18), pages 1-33, September.
    7. Amfo, Bismark & Ali, Ernest Baba & Atinga, David, 2021. "Climate change, soil water conservation, and productivity: Evidence from cocoa farmers in Ghana," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Samuel Beskow & Lloyd Norton & Carlos Mello, 2013. "Hydrological Prediction in a Tropical Watershed Dominated by Oxisols Using a Distributed Hydrological Model," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(2), pages 341-363, January.
    2. Shereif H Mahmoud & A A Alazba, 2015. "Hydrological Response to Land Cover Changes and Human Activities in Arid Regions Using a Geographic Information System and Remote Sensing," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(4), pages 1-19, April.
    3. Glavan, Matjaž & Miličić, Vesna & Pintar, Marina, 2013. "Finding options to improve catchment water quality—Lessons learned from historical land use situations in a Mediterranean catchment in Slovenia," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 261, pages 58-73.
    4. Tayyebi, Amin & Arsanjani, Jamal J. & Tayyebi, Amir H. & Omrani, Hichem & Moghadam, Hossein S., 2016. "Group-based crop change planning: Application of SmartScape™ spatial decision support system for resolving conflicts," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 333(C), pages 92-100.
    5. Tianshi Pan & Lijun Zuo & Zengxiang Zhang & Xiaoli Zhao & Feifei Sun & Zijuan Zhu & Yingchun Liu, 2020. "Impact of Land Use Change on Water Conservation: A Case Study of Zhangjiakou in Yongding River," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(1), pages 1-21, December.
    6. Lin Chu & Tiancheng Sun & Tianwei Wang & Zhaoxia Li & Chongfa Cai, 2018. "Evolution and Prediction of Landscape Pattern and Habitat Quality Based on CA-Markov and InVEST Model in Hubei Section of Three Gorges Reservoir Area (TGRA)," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-28, October.
    7. Fontana, Veronika & Radtke, Anna & Bossi Fedrigotti, Valérie & Tappeiner, Ulrike & Tasser, Erich & Zerbe, Stefan & Buchholz, Thomas, 2013. "Comparing land-use alternatives: Using the ecosystem services concept to define a multi-criteria decision analysis," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 128-136.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:220:y:2009:i:17:p:2076-2087. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/ecological-modelling .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.