Pollinator declines, international trade and global food security: Reassessing the global economic and nutritional impacts

The decline in biodiversity is threatening the provision of vital ecosystem services such as animal-mediated pollination services. While about 17 % of the global crop production value depends on pollination services, these crops make up an even larger share—28 %—of global agricultural trade. This reflects their strong international demand and higher tradability compared to other agricultural commodities. Hence, global trade needs to be considered when assessing how pollinator population declines affect the availability of micronutrient-rich foods and economic welfare in net-importing and exporting regions. This paper critically reviews and extends a global partial equilibrium model covering about 120 edible crops across 22 regions while also capturing international trade. The replication efforts reveal significant methodological and empirical flaws in an earlier, comparable study. Most recent bioeconomic data on crop yield dependence on pollination services are used to simulate a global pollinator collapse. Crop prices are projected to rise by 30 %, leading to a global welfare loss of 729 billion USD, or 0.9 % of global GDP and 15.6 % of global agricultural production value used for human food in 2020. The revised model also reports substantial declines in food production and micronutrient availability such as an 8 % reduction in global Vitamin A availability. These estimates by far surpass previous estimates that were based on earlier bioeconomic data. The findings highlight the critical need for more robust modeling frameworks to inform policy decisions regarding the sustainability of agri-food systems.